Nayrolf

User

Duration:5 years

Time Period:2016 - 2020

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

1.588k	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
94.236	Will the first crewed SpaceX flight lead to the death of a crew member?	Binary
93.552	By 2020, will one of the two major U.S. political parties nominate for some office someone who openly admits to being a Flat Earther?	Binary
89.076	Will Andrew Yang win the Democratic nomination?	Binary
83.791	Will Oprah Winfrey run for President in 2020?	Binary
81.647	Will an authenticated tape of Trump saying the n-word behind the scenes of "The Apprentice" surface before Election Day, 2020?	Binary
79.447	First attempted human head transplant by end of 2020?	Binary
71.449	How many AI papers will be published on ArXiv in the calendar year 2019?	Continuous
67.405	Will Elizabeth Warren be the 2020 Democratic Party Nominee for President of the United States?	Binary
66.675	Will Moon Express successfully scout the moon by 2021?	Binary
65.936	Will Hillary Clinton run for the office of President of the United States in 2020?	Binary
63.938	By November 2nd, 2020, will 80% or fewer people be employed by DeepMind than the 836 employed today?	Binary
63.233	A living thylacine (Tasmanian tiger) by 2020?	Binary
61.681	Will Donald Trump resign from the office of U.S. president before the end of his first term?	Binary
59.943	Flying cars (finally) arriving by 2021?	Binary
54.743	How many Starlink satellites will be in operation on the 1st of July 2020?	Continuous
54.326	By November 2nd, 2020, will the ten cities with the highest number of surveillance cameras per 1,000 people all be located in China?	Binary
54.059	Will North Korea attack another country by the end of 2020?	Binary
50.734	Announcement of evidence for aliens by 2020?	Binary
50.629	Will online voting spread in the US before the next presidential election?	Binary
48.247	Will the winner of the 2020 US Presidential election have been elected to any other previous significant political office?	Binary
48.039	Will engineers create a material with a melting point higher than 4300K (and hence any other substance) by 2021?	Binary
47.942	Will Trump be reelected president if the election is called by November 10th 2020?	Binary
47.863	Will the U.S. enter a recession by July 1, 2021?	Binary
43.008	Will one or more additional interstellar asteroids be detected by 2019?	Binary
33.196	A restaurant serving cultured meat by 2021?	Binary
32.542	A medical pathway to complete painlessness?	Binary
28.074	Will Boeing fly astronauts to ISS before SpaceX?	Binary
23.893	Will the United Kingdom enter a recession by 2021?	Binary
19.251	Will Cory Booker drop out before the New Jersey primary?	Binary
15.831	Will Tesla go out of business before 2019?	Binary
15.224	When will machine translation achieve a "word accuracy score" comparable to that of professional human translators?	Continuous
12.944	In the year ending November 2nd, 2020, will a funding round for a private company include a valuation in excess of $1bn for a company with a primary business focus of longevity?	Binary
12.289	Pandemic series: efficient human-to-human transmission of H5N1?	Binary
10.948	Will the U.S. enter a recession by July 1, 2020?	Binary
9.805	Will public domain day happen in the U.S. in 2019?	Binary
8.934	Will the next Ebola outbreak kill less than 1,000 people?	Binary
8.389	When will a commercial enterprise put a human in orbit?	Continuous
4.745	Will General Fusion meets its plasma temperature targets by mid-2020?	Binary
4.745	When will an AI system score an impressive defeat of a professional human in Starcraft 2?	Continuous
0.086	Will the market cap of Ethereum be higher than that of Bitcoin by 2020?	Binary
0.065	Will 2018 be the warmest year on record?	Binary
-0.091	When will the "large brain preservation" prize be awarded by the Brain Preservation Foundation?	Continuous
-4.043	By 2020, will an implanted human embryo with artificially edited DNA be brought to term?	Binary
-8.121	Apple virtual/augmented reality by 2020?	Binary
-12.398	A revival of interest in muon-catalyzed fusion?	Binary
-37.957	Will Joe Biden be the Democratic candidate in the 2020 US presidential election?	Binary
-44.472	Will quantum computing "supremacy” be achieved by 2025?	Binary
-87.696	Will SpaceX test a stainless-steel prototype Starship by February 1?	Binary