jason_k

User

Duration:5 years

Time Period:2016 - 2020

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

521.2	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
72.133	First attempted human head transplant by end of 2020?	Binary
66.395	Will the Ocean Cleanup project fail to have 60 systems up and running by 2021?	Binary
51.347	Will the first crewed SpaceX flight lead to the death of a crew member?	Binary
48.437	Will Hillary Clinton run for the office of President of the United States in 2020?	Binary
43.370	Announcement of evidence for aliens by 2020?	Binary
42.353	Will an authenticated tape of Trump saying the n-word behind the scenes of "The Apprentice" surface before Election Day, 2020?	Binary
34.025	By 2020, will one of the two major U.S. political parties nominate for some office someone who openly admits to being a Flat Earther?	Binary
31.399	By 2021 will there be a court case testing the ability of a program, algorithm, or AI to be the sole partner in a US Limited Liability Corporation?	Binary
30.650	Will Donald Trump face a significant primary challenge in 2020?	Binary
26.031	Will North Korea attack another country by the end of 2020?	Binary
25.247	Will the winner of the 2020 US Presidential election have been elected to any other previous significant political office?	Binary
24.067	Will Trump be reelected president if the election is called by November 10th 2020?	Binary
22.081	Will Oprah Winfrey run for President in 2020?	Binary
17.538	How low will sterling go relative to the Euro during the coming year?	Continuous
15.328	A restaurant serving cultured meat by 2021?	Binary
12.438	Brexit negotiations completed by March 2019?	Binary
6.896	Will the market cap of Ethereum be higher than that of Bitcoin by 2020?	Binary
6.797	Will President Trump fire (or request and accept the resignation of) Jerome Powell, Chairman of the Federal Reserve?	Binary
4.776	Flying cars (finally) arriving by 2021?	Binary
3.293	Will SpaceX Starship (with or without a booster) reach space before 2021?	Binary
3.149	Will the next Ebola outbreak kill less than 1,000 people?	Binary
2.642	Will 2018 be the warmest year on record?	Binary
1.977	Will US regulations that restrict self-driving trucks be implemented?	Binary
1.646	Vaquita porpoise declared extinct before 2020?	Binary
1.244	Will one or more additional interstellar asteroids be detected by 2019?	Binary
0.852	Pandemic series: a bioterror attack against crops or livestock by 2020?	Binary
0.805	Pandemic series: efficient human-to-human transmission of H5N1?	Binary
0.534	Will the 2020 U.S. Dietary Guidelines start recommending a low carbohydrate diet as an option?	Binary
0.012	Apple virtual/augmented reality by 2020?	Binary
-2.794	By 2020, will an implanted human embryo with artificially edited DNA be brought to term?	Binary
-73.469	Will the 'Effective Altruism' movement continue to grow through 2020?	Binary