Supreme_Switch

User

Duration:5 years

Time Period:2016 - 2020

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

369.2	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
65.780	How many cases of measles will be recorded in the United States for the year 2020?	Continuous
40.582	Will the first crewed SpaceX flight lead to the death of a crew member?	Binary
38.208	By 2020, will one of the two major U.S. political parties nominate for some office someone who openly admits to being a Flat Earther?	Binary
38.146	Announcement of evidence for aliens by 2020?	Binary
28.298	Flying cars (finally) arriving by 2021?	Binary
26.419	By 2021 will there be a court case testing the ability of a program, algorithm, or AI to be the sole partner in a US Limited Liability Corporation?	Binary
23.790	Will Moon Express successfully scout the moon by 2021?	Binary
21.688	Will online voting spread in the US before the next presidential election?	Binary
20.482	A living thylacine (Tasmanian tiger) by 2020?	Binary
17.038	Will the Democrats nominate someone from Generation X for president in 2020?	Binary
16.086	Will North Korea attack another country by the end of 2020?	Binary
15.224	Will Oprah Winfrey run for President in 2020?	Binary
12.907	A restaurant serving cultured meat by 2021?	Binary
9.238	Brexit negotiations completed by March 2019?	Binary
8.838	How many candidates will get at least 15% of votes in the 2020 Iowa Democratic caucuses?	Continuous
6.861	When will an AI system score an impressive defeat of a professional human in Starcraft 2?	Continuous
5.567	Will SpaceX test a stainless-steel prototype Starship by February 1?	Binary
3.297	How low will sterling go relative to the Euro during the coming year?	Continuous
0.968	Pandemic series: a bioterror attack against crops or livestock by 2020?	Binary
0.657	When will a commercial enterprise put a human in orbit?	Continuous
0.645	When will machine translation achieve a "word accuracy score" comparable to that of professional human translators?	Continuous
0.548	Pandemic series: efficient human-to-human transmission of H5N1?	Binary
0.038	How many millimeters thick will the thinnest phone be in 2020?	Continuous
-	By 2020, will an implanted human embryo with artificially edited DNA be brought to term?	Binary
-	A medical pathway to complete painlessness?	Binary
-	Will General Fusion meets its plasma temperature targets by mid-2020?	Binary
-	Will the market cap of Ethereum be higher than that of Bitcoin by 2020?	Binary
-	Will US regulations that restrict self-driving trucks be implemented?	Binary
-	Will 2018 be the warmest year on record?	Binary
-	Vaquita porpoise declared extinct before 2020?	Binary
-	Will one or more additional interstellar asteroids be detected by 2019?	Binary
-	Will the 2020 U.S. Dietary Guidelines start recommending a low carbohydrate diet as an option?	Binary
-	Will quantum computing "supremacy” be achieved by 2025?	Binary
-	Will engineers create a material with a melting point higher than 4300K (and hence any other substance) by 2021?	Binary
-	Will the winner of the 2020 US Presidential election have been elected to any other previous significant political office?	Binary
-	Will Donald Trump face a significant primary challenge in 2020?	Binary
-0.145	Apple virtual/augmented reality by 2020?	Binary
-31.931	A revival of interest in muon-catalyzed fusion?	Binary