AABoyles

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2020

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3739	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
168.854	What will be the S&P 500 end-of-day low in 2020?	Continuous
126.046	How many cyberattacks by Iran against US Govt. systems in Q1 2020?	Continuous
125.925	What will Tesla's market capitalization be on 1 January 2021?	Continuous
120.600	[closed] How many human infections of the 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) will be estimated to occur before 2021?	Continuous
116.938	What proportion of novel coronavirus infections outside China by March 27 will be due to exposure in China?	Continuous
116.781	When will the SpaceX Demo-2 launch?	Continuous
110.023	How many total confirmed cases of coronavirus will be reported by Johns Hopkin's CSSE on February 3rd?	Continuous
106.228	How many COVID-19 cases in the Netherlands will be confirmed on April the 27th?	Continuous
98.307	What will be the peak unemployment rate in the United States for calendar year 2020?	Continuous
94.287	US invades and attempts a regime change in Iran in 2020?	Binary
93.806	How many cumulative confirmed cases of coronavirus in the entire Bay Area will be reported by Johns Hopkins CSSE on April 1st, 2020?	Continuous
92.465	Will all major 2020 US presidential candidates survive the COVID-19 epidemic?	Binary
92.065	Will the US hold mass-turnout elections for President on schedule in 2020?	Binary
91.948	Will Joe Biden be the Democratic Party nominee for president of the United States on election day 2020?	Binary
87.496	How much higher will the annual mean surface air temperature be in 2020, relative to the 1951-1980 base period?	Continuous
86.272	How many US state governors, members of the Supreme Court, and members of Congress will die from COVID-19 in 2020?	Continuous
85.942	On May 1st, what percentage of Americans will be "very worried" that they, someone in their family or someone else they know will become infected with the coronavirus?	Continuous
84.563	Will there be a US-Iran war in 2020?	Binary
84.535	Will China fail to curtail its internment camps programs for Uyghurs and Muslims in 2020?	Binary
82.975	Will a woman be the Democratic candidate for Vice-President of the USA in 2020?	Binary
82.689	Before 2020-05-17, will at least two public health agencies claim that China deliberately misreported COVID-19 infections?	Binary
81.399	Will a third-party candidate get more than 5% of the popular vote in the 2020 US Presidential Election?	Binary
80.743	LRT 2.1: What is the number of total confirmed cases in the US that COVID Tracker will have in the daily report this coming Sunday, May 3rd?	Continuous
79.799	Have we permanently lost contact with ASTERIA?	Binary
79.218	Will JHU CSSE's COVID-19 dashboard remain open and maintained through 2020-12-31?	Binary
78.709	What proportion of Senate Democratic incumbents will be defeated in the 2020 election?	Continuous
74.988	Will Boris Johnson recover from COVID-19?	Binary
74.841	LRT 2.3.1: Will total newly reported deaths in the U.S. first fall below 5,000 on the 7-day period ending on May 2nd or the 7-day period ending on May 9th?	Binary
74.627	When will the total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases reach 1 million?	Continuous
74.294	How many total confirmed cases of coronavirus will be reported by Johns Hopkins CSSE on February the 17th?	Continuous
74.144	LRT 1.2: As of Saturday May 9, 2020, how many COVID-19 related deaths will have occurred in the US?	Continuous
74.090	Will the Chinese police or military intervene in Hong Kong before Summer 2020?	Binary
74.014	[Short-fuse] Will Donald Trump's Tulsa Oklahoma rally on June 20 result in a spike of COVID-19 cases?	Binary
73.779	How many geoengineering-related papers will be published in the year 2020?	Continuous
72.772	Will the Democratic candidate for the 2020 US presidential election be chosen at the Democratic National Convention after only one round of voting?	Binary
69.946	What will be the US unemployment rate for April 2020?	Continuous
69.432	In the year 2020, will no gene drive be launched to fight malaria-carrying mosquitoes in any part of the world?	Binary
69.360	How many COVID-19 cases in the US federal legislature will be publicly reported before 2021?	Continuous
67.362	Will the GOP hold the Senate on January 3rd 2021?	Binary
66.486	If president Trump loses the 2020 election, will he concede?	Binary
65.638	Will at least 1 million COVID-19 deaths be reported in any single calendar month in 2020?	Binary
63.054	LRT 2.4: What will the average number of new daily confirmed cases be, over the period from 10th, till May 16th, in the state of Georgia?	Continuous
62.909	Will Kim Jong-un be officially confirmed dead before May 15 2020?	Binary
61.860	Will at least 9 of the 12 states hit hardest by COVID-19 in 2020 be states that voted for Trump in 2016?	Binary
61.734	Will the first post from Instagram’s official account @instagram after this question closes be a photograph or video of an instagram user?	Binary
60.004	On May 1st, what percentage of Americans will be "very worried" about the coronavirus’s effect on the U.S. economy?	Continuous
57.387	LRT 2.3.2: Will total newly reported deaths in the U.S. first fall below 5,000 on the 7-day period ending on May 16th or the 7-day period ending on May 23?	Binary
55.796	How many total confirmed cases of novel coronavirus will be reported in the WHO Western Pacific Region, outside of China and Taiwan, by March 27?	Continuous
52.721	If Trump loses the election in 2020, will he maintain that he is still the president on January 21st 2021?	Binary
52.566	Will the Democrats hold the US House of Representatives in the 2020 Election?	Binary
51.660	LRT 2.3.5: Will total newly weekly reported deaths in the U.S. first fall below 5,000 on or after June 20th?	Binary
51.284	Will Amazon ($AMZN) make a public offer to acquire FedEx ($FDX) by June 30, 2020?	Binary
50.550	Will New York City close most of its public schools due to COVID-19 before 2021?	Binary
50.186	How much transit activity will there be in the San Francisco Bay Area in the last week of June?	Continuous
48.919	How many COVID-2019 cases in South Korea will be confirmed on March the 27th?	Continuous
48.175	How many (cumulative) total confirmed cases of COVID-2019 will be reported in the United Kingdom on April the 27th?	Continuous
47.796	Will it be reported that Trump has tested positive for COVID-19 in 2020?	Binary
47.624	Will Apple announce plans to make ARM-based Mac at WWDC 2020?	Binary
46.452	LRT 2.3.3: Will total newly reported deaths in the U.S. first fall below 5,000 on the 7-day period ending on May 30th or the 7-day period ending on June 6th?	Binary
45.801	Will the Emergency Telework Act (S.3561) become law by 4/25/20?	Binary
43.193	Will the US see a massive riot in 2020?	Binary
43.185	How much transit activity will there be in New York City in the last week of June?	Continuous
41.569	Will Keir Starmer win the 2020 Labour leadership contest?	Binary
40.854	In second edition of the Animal Protection Index how many countries will be listed with B or A grades on the indicator for "Formal Recognition of Animal Sentience"?	Continuous
40.494	How many Electoral College votes will the Democratic Party nominee win in the 2020 presidential election?	Continuous
38.247	Will the S&P 500 Index end 2020 higher?	Binary
37.963	Will most UK schools reopen in time for the 2020-2021 academic year?	Binary
35.474	LRT 1.6: When will the daily number of new hospital admissions for COVID-19 illness in New York City drop below 200 for the first time since mid-March?	Continuous
35.199	How many total confirmed cases of novel coronavirus will be reported in the WHO East Mediterranean region by March 27?	Continuous
34.769	Will Punxsutawney Phil's prediction of an early spring come true in 2020?	Binary
32.378	How many new cases of COVID-19 in the 2nd quarter of 2020?	Continuous
31.854	How many total confirmed cases of novel coronavirus will be reported in the WHO European region by March 27?	Continuous
30.820	Will remdesivir be administered to at least 50,000 patients with SARS-CoV-2 infections in the US, UK, EU member states, and Japan, by the end of 2020?	Binary
29.404	Will Prediction Markets judge the Democratic primary to be settled after Super Tuesday?	Binary
29.015	Will global carbon emissions in 2020 be higher than they were in 2019?	Binary
28.908	How many total confirmed cases of novel coronavirus will be reported in the WHO South-East Asia Region by March 27?	Continuous
28.365	When will the total international (outside mainland China) cases of COVID-19 exceed the total cases within mainland China?	Continuous
28.328	What will the quarter-on-quarter US Q1 2020 GDP growth rate be, according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
26.624	How many total confirmed cases of novel coronavirus will be reported in the WHO African region by March 27?	Continuous
26.123	What will the magnitude of most severe earthquake to strike California in 2020 be?	Continuous
25.348	How much karma will the top LessWrong post in 2020 have?	Continuous
25.008	If Trump loses the election, will he contest the results?	Binary
24.502	What will be the US unemployment rate for March 2020?	Continuous
24.442	How many infections of COVID-19 confirmed by testing will be reported before 2021?	Continuous
24.273	For how many countries will the CDC issue a Level 3 Travel Health Notice by May 15, due to the novel coronavirus?	Continuous
22.766	How many active Airbnb listings will there be in Beijing on the 1st of April of 2020?	Continuous
22.424	How many total confirmed cases of novel coronavirus will be reported in the WHO Region of the Americas by March 27?	Continuous
22.323	Will a major metropolitan area in the US, EU, or the UK experience a food shortage due to COVID-19 before June 6th, 2020?	Binary
22.216	Will facial recognition be banned in at least 3 more U.S. cities in 2020?	Binary
21.634	How many predictions will have been made on Metaculus by the following dates? (December 18, 2020)	Continuous
20.906	What will Washington state’s Department of Revenue report as the 2020 Q1 gross business income?	Continuous
20.781	How many cumulative confirmed cases of coronavirus in San Francisco will be reported by Johns Hopkins CSSE on April 1st, 2020?	Continuous
19.343	Will a major US website crash due to internet traffic in April?	Binary
18.386	What will be the US U-6 unemployment rate for May 2020?	Continuous
18.342	How many COVID-2019 cases in Europe will be confirmed on April the 27th?	Continuous
16.302	Will EA Global London 2020 be cancelled or rescheduled due to COVID-19?	Binary
16.050	Will the US federal government shut down all non-essential services by 2020-04-19?	Binary
15.276	What will the Seattle Police Department report as the total number of criminal offenses in March 2020?	Continuous
12.982	Will EA Global San Francisco be cancelled or rescheduled due to COVID-19?	Binary
12.818	How many contests will Bernie Sanders win in the 2020 Democratic Primaries?	Continuous
11.671	What will the US employment to population ratio be in May 2020?	Continuous
11.587	Will Francisco Partners / Evergreen complete its acquisition of LogMeIn (LOGM) before June 01, 2020?	Binary
11.088	Will the average world temperature in 2020 be higher than in 2019?	Binary
10.845	LRT 1.4: As of Saturday May 9, 2020, how many COVID-19 related deaths will have occurred in Louisiana?	Continuous
9.887	LRT 1.3: As of Saturday May 9, 2020, how many COVID-19 related deaths will have occurred in Illinois?	Continuous
9.390	Will Michael Bloomberg emerge as the leading moderate candidate after Super Tuesday?	Binary
8.643	Will at least 100,000 COVID-19 deaths be reported in any single calendar month in 2020?	Binary
8.357	How many COVID-2019 cases will be confirmed in the location with the most cases outside of Mainland China on March the 27th?	Continuous
8.190	Will Airbnb services be suspended in at least two major metropolitan areas outside of Mainland China due to COVID-19-related concerns before June 27th, 2020?	Binary
8.024	Will North Korea launch an intercontinental ballistic missile in 2020?	Binary
5.619	Will Netanyahu remain Israeli's Prime Minister till the end of 2020?	Binary
5.306	Will any city or town in the US be put under mandated lockdown by the end of 2020 due to the novel coronavirus outbreak?	Binary
4.915	If the U.S. sees at least 50,000 COVID-19 cases before November 2020, will Trump be reelected president in 2020?	Binary
4.828	Will at least 10,000 COVID-19 deaths be reported in any single calendar month in 2020?	Binary
4.252	Will Brexit (finally) happen in 2020?	Binary
2.965	[Short fuse] Will Michael Bloomberg drop out before the March 13th?	Binary
2.796	How many judges will the US Senate confirm in 2020?	Continuous
2.287	Will the CDC issue a Level 3 Travel Health Notice for France by May 1?	Binary
1.527	Will Airbnb's services be suspended in any country due to COVID-19-related concerns before June 27th, 2020?	Binary
1.518	Will China Oceanwide Holdings Group Co., Ltd. complete an acquisition of Genworth (GNW) before July 1, 2020?	Binary
0.394	Will Elon Musk's baby's name, X Æ A - 12, turn out to be his real name?	Binary
-0.258	How many structures will be destroyed by wildfires in California in 2020?	Continuous
-1.128	How many total COVID-2019 cases in the USA will be confirmed on April the 27th?	Continuous
-2.455	Will the PredictIt prediction market outperform Fivethirtyeight's forecasts for the 2020 Super Tuesday Democratic primaries?	Binary
-6.123	What will the US Q2 2020 GDP growth rate be, according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
-6.130	Will Iran deploy no Zafar communications satellite by 2021?	Binary
-9.251	Will the 2020 Tokyo Olympics be cancelled due to COVID-19?	Binary
-15.341	Will another location overtake Hubei as the location of the largest COVID-19 outbreak before 2021?	Binary
-20.419	Will California have a wildfire among the 10 most destructive in state history in 2020?	Binary
-26.218	How many COVID-2019 cases will be confirmed in the location with the most cases outside of China on April the 27th?	Continuous
-26.282	How many COVID-2019 cases in the United Kingdom will be confirmed on March the 27th?	Continuous
-27.139	Will Harvard University open classes on September 2, 2020?	Binary
-30.982	Will a vaccine targeted at the 2019 novel coronavirus (Covid-19) be administered to at least 10,000 people in 2020?	Binary
-42.369	Will Donald Trump tweet that Bernie Sanders is a communist before the 2020 election?	Binary
-42.553	How many total confirmed cases of coronavirus will be reported by Johns Hopkin's CSSE on March 2nd, 2020?	Continuous
-43.226	What will the Metaculus community average log score be for COVID-19 related questions on 20 Jan 2021?	Continuous
-45.154	Will Dominic Cummings still be Chief Adviser to Boris Johnson at the end of his first term?	Binary
-49.570	What will the April 2020 US nonfarm payrolls figure be?	Continuous
-51.676	Will early 2020 AI solve at least 20% of previously unseen IQ-test like tasks?	Binary
-54.066	Will the WHO or North Korean Government confirm any COVID-19 cases in North Korea by 2020-05-17?	Binary
-57.380	Will the Doomsday clock advance closer to Midnight?	Binary
-66.373	Will Democrats win both halves of Congress + Presidency in the US 2020 Election?	Binary
-73.201	Will Whole Woman's Health be overturned in 2020?	Binary
-75.022	What will the May 2020 US nonfarm payrolls figure be?	Continuous
-90.651	Will the CDC issue a Level 3 Travel Health Notice for Thailand by May 1?	Binary
-97.746	How many total confirmed cases of coronavirus outside of China will be reported by Johns Hopkins CSSE on March 2nd, 2020?	Continuous
-98.291	Will Trump's pants catch fire on at least five more occasions than Biden's during the month of July?	Binary
-108.163	Will Donald Trump's first term end before the next supreme court appointment?	Binary
-111.062	LRT 2.3.4: Will total newly reported deaths in the U.S. first fall below 5,000 on the 7-day period ending on June 13th or the 7-day period ending on June 20th?	Binary
-144.317	LRT 1.5: How many deaths due to COVID-19 will occur in the US in 2020?	Continuous
-149.918	Will an Aerospike (finally) Fly?	Binary
-156.288	What will be the doubling time of COVID-19 cases during the peak growth period in 2020?	Continuous
-190.296	Which month of 2020 will see the biggest global increase of COVID-19 cases?	Continuous
-205.666	Will at least one Metaculus user report a positive test result for novel coronavirus by the end of 2020?	Binary