steven0461

User

Duration:10 years

Time Period:2016 - 2025

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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4730	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
116.935	How many spaceflight-related fatalities will occur between January 1 2020 and January 1 2025?	Continuous
114.611	When will Ninja first lose the top spot as the most followed account on Twitch?	Continuous
98.329	What will the average global atmospheric CO₂ concentration be, over the 2020-2021 period?	Continuous
97.491	Will Lebanon come under French rule again before 2025?	Binary
95.602	Will NASA's SLS launch a person to the Moon before 2024?	Binary
93.179	Will the Second Amendment of the United States Constitution be amended or repealed before 2025?	Binary
92.718	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Tucker Carlson)	Binary
92.384	Will Mike Pence be elected president of the United States in 2024?	Binary
91.603	Will Mount Rushmore be intentionally destroyed or modified before 2025?	Binary
91.017	Will the United States institute a military draft by 2025?	Binary
90.410	Will there be a major nuclear or radiological accident before January 1, 2022?	Binary
89.871	Will no non-test nuclear weapons be detonated by January 1, 2024?	Binary
89.410	When will the James Webb Space Telescope be launched?	Continuous
88.404	Will Nigel Farage become Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before 2023?	Binary
87.348	Before 2025, will an asteroid or comet estimated to be at least 50 meters in diameter be detected to be due to collide with Earth before 2100?	Binary
86.273	Will there be another VEI level six (or higher) volcanic eruption on Earth before 2025?	Binary
86.163	How much exercise can you do before it starts to take more time than it adds life?	Continuous
85.260	Will Italy leave the Eurozone before 2023?	Binary
85.098	Will any of the 20 most valuable public companies in the United States (As of January 2019) file for bankruptcy protection before 2025?	Binary
84.739	Will Medicare for all be passed if a Democrat is elected president in 2020?	Binary
84.123	Will there be a G4 EA H1N1 flu virus pandemic before 2025?	Binary
81.005	Will a geoengineering act of Congress become US federal law by the end of 2024?	Binary
79.374	Will the United States land humans on the moon again before 2025?	Binary
78.236	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Kamala Harris)	Binary
78.018	Will Russia invade or annex all or part of Belarus before 2022?	Binary
77.957	Will 100 kilotonnes of sulphur be injected into the atmosphere, as part of a single geoengineering effort, before 2024?	Binary
75.815	Will the number of people in extreme poverty in 2020 be lower than the number in 2015?	Binary
72.168	Will an ocean be fertilised with at least 50 tonnes of iron, as part of a single geoengineering effort, by the end of 2023?	Binary
71.463	Will Kamala Harris be president before inauguration day 2025?	Binary
71.008	Will Scotland leave the United Kingdom before 2025?	Binary
70.483	When will the VIX index climb above 50?	Continuous
69.638	How many people will be born in the United States in the year 2021?	Continuous
68.051	Bitcoin Extremes: Will the value of 1 bitcoin fall to $1,000 or less before 2025?	Binary
67.617	Will Chinese official real GDP numbers be revised downward by at least 5% before 2023?	Binary
67.597	If Joe Biden becomes president, what will the federal minimum wage be at the end of 2024?	Continuous
65.474	Will total funding in longevity startups worldwide exceed $5bn in the year ending in November 2nd, 2020?	Binary
63.738	Will the Mars 2020 helicopter fly?	Binary
63.661	Will the United States test a nuclear weapon before 2023?	Binary
63.524	Will no evidence for a new light (17 MeV) particle be independently published before 2021?	Binary
62.389	In which month will there first be 20,000 new papers submitted to the arXiv?	Continuous
58.980	What will the maximum increase in global annual mean surface air temperature be, relative to the 1951-1980 base period, in the 2020 to 2023 period?	Continuous
58.333	Will the identity of Bitcoin's founder, Satoshi Nakamoto, be revealed to the general public by 2025?	Binary
57.856	Will Xi Jinping keep leading China past 2022?	Binary
57.498	Will Extinction Rebellion, or a splinter group, be declared a terrorist organisation by a G7 country before 2025?	Binary
55.973	What will the upper limit in the IPCC's ‘likely’ range of its climate sensitivity estimate be, in its 6th Assessment Report?	Continuous
55.762	Will Any Major AI Company Commit to an AI Windfall Clause by 2025?	Binary
55.222	If the James Webb Space Telescope is launched, will it succeed in transmitting cosmological data?	Binary
55.168	When will an AI defeat one of the top-10 StarCraft 2 players?	Continuous
52.955	Will Angela Merkel remain chancellor after the next German federal elections?	Binary
52.549	Will Turkey be a NATO member continuously until January 1, 2025?	Binary
51.815	Will Moon Express have a successful harvest by 2023?	Binary
49.578	When will the next episode of Hello Internet be released?	Continuous
48.529	Will a Wealth Tax be passed if a Democrat is elected president in 2020?	Binary
48.508	Will the IAU rework its definition of planetary status by Jan 1, 2025?	Binary
48.271	Will KIC 9832227 go "red nova" – observable to the naked eye on Earth – by 2024?	Binary
47.670	Will any Member State leave the Eurozone before 2025?	Binary
47.436	Hutter Prize: At the end of 2022, what will be the best bits-per-character compression of a 1GB sample of Wikipedia?	Continuous
46.524	How much solar energy will be consumed globally, in terawatt-hours, in the calendar year 2023?	Continuous
46.511	Will the 2024 US presidential election also be considered fraudulent by the losing party?	Binary
46.403	Will our global atmospheric CO₂ concentration over the 2020 to 2023 period be on path to limit warming to 1.4°C by mid-century?	Binary
45.904	A major United States earthquake by 2023?	Binary
45.672	Before January 1, 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that COVID-19 more likely than not originated in a laboratory?	Binary
43.085	How many people will die as a result of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) before 2021?	Continuous
40.052	Will Metaculus Inc. host a prediction market prior to 2024?	Binary
39.939	LRT 2.2: As of Monday, April 27th how many total cumulative SARS-CoV-2 infections (including all symptomatic, subclinical, and asymptomatic infections) have there been in the US?	Continuous
39.153	Will an official diagnosis of dementia be announced for Joe Biden before 2023?	Binary
38.017	How much wind energy will be consumed globally, in terawatt-hours, in the calendar year 2023?	Continuous
37.617	Will General Electric (GE) file for chapter 7 or chapter 11 bankruptcy before September 18, 2024?	Binary
37.601	Will lab-grown complex vital organs be used successfully in humans before 2025?	Binary
35.618	On December 1, 2023, how many companies worldwide will pledge uphold GAP standards for broiler chickens raised for meat?	Continuous
35.473	Will transformer derived architectures accelerate progress in deep learning?	Binary
35.035	Will WeWork file for bankruptcy protection before January 1, 2025?	Binary
35.006	Bitcoin Lightning Network Capacity in BTC on 2021-Aug-25	Continuous
33.920	Will Yang get 200k donors or more in the 2024 US presidential race?	Binary
33.430	How many publicly traded U.S.- or EU-based plant-based meat producers will be valued at $1bn or more on October 4th, 2023?	Continuous
32.461	PhilPapers survey mini-series: Permissibility of genetic engineering	Continuous
31.441	Will Cuba still be a communist state in 2023?	Binary
31.015	Will there be at least 200 companies developing technologies to defeat aging by 2025?	Binary
29.835	PhilPapers survey mini-series: Biological-ness of race	Continuous
29.573	Will Metaculus release a dedicated mobile app before 2023?	Binary
28.954	Will the UK housing market crash before July 2023?	Binary
27.552	Will the USA's Labor Force Participation Rate be lower in 2023 than in 2018?	Binary
26.377	Out of the 25 largest U.S companies by revenue, how many will file for bankruptcy between March 2020 to March 2024?	Continuous
26.260	Will the Dai stablecoin maintain a value of roughly $1 until July 2023?	Binary
25.767	Will the U.S. get rid of the penny by 2025?	Binary
25.683	Will a 100 trillion parameter deep learning model be trained before 2026?	Binary
24.933	When will the volume-weighted average battery for electric vehicles and stationary storage reach $100 per kilowatt hour?	Continuous
23.816	When will George R. R. Martin's “The Winds of Winter” be released?	Continuous
23.662	Will one of the verified oldest living persons in the world reach 120 years of age?	Binary
22.953	Another hit by two Cat 4+ hurricanes in the same year?	Binary
22.184	Will the US FDA grant Neuralink permission to implant a brain-machine interface device in a human before 1 January 2022?	Binary
21.967	How many predictions will have been made on Metaculus by the following dates? (December 31, 2023)	Continuous
21.419	When will Metaculus be linked to by 130 sites?	Continuous
21.087	What will the cost of energy of utility-scale solar photovoltaics be in 2022, in 2018 USD per kWh?	Continuous
20.235	PhilPapers survey mini-series: Immortality - would philosophers choose it?	Continuous
18.498	Will the Extremely Large Telescope see first light by the end of 2024?	Binary
16.658	PhilPapers survey mini-series: Consciousness of future AI systems	Continuous
16.074	Will a scientific mission to the outer solar system be assigned to the Falcon Heavy by mid-2023?	Binary
15.869	How will the Longbets "bioerror" question resolve?	Binary
15.523	What will the mean of the year-over-year growth rate of the sum of teraflops of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500 be, in the three year period ending in November 2023?	Continuous
15.266	Will there be armed conflict between racial groups in South Africa before 2023?	Binary
14.755	What will be the value of the (herein described) "AI winter index" at end of 2021?	Continuous
14.307	When will the Flamanville EPR be finished?	Continuous
13.829	What will the listing price of an Impossible Food's plant-based beef burger be, in a U.S.-based supermarket, in USD per kilo, in June, 2022?	Continuous
13.787	Will the XENON1T experiment report a detection of dark matter or other new physics before 2023?	Binary
13.766	How many subscribers will Netflix have by August 2022?	Continuous
13.194	Will SpaceX test-launch the BFR before 2025?	Binary
11.903	What will be the ratio of fatalities to total estimated infections for COVID-19 by the end of 2020?	Continuous
11.668	Funds toward a Solar storm shield begun by 2021?	Binary
11.656	How many new electric vehicles will be registered worldwide, in the calendar year 2023?	Continuous
11.559	PhilPapers survey mini-series: The many-worlds interpretation of quantum mechanics	Continuous
11.332	Will there be extraordinary or premature federal elections held in Germany before their next election cycle?	Binary
10.382	Will a S&P500 tech boom surpass the dotcom bubble for one quarter or more before 2025?	Binary
9.984	When will the US national debt reach $25 trillion?	Continuous
9.728	PhilPapers survey mini-series: Impermissibility of eating animals and animal products	Continuous
9.467	How much forest coverage loss will occur in Brazil over the three-year period starting from 2020?	Continuous
9.107	What will the Human Development Index of the world be in 2020?	Continuous
8.227	Will the community prediction do better than the Metaculus prediction for the 2nd instalment of the Lightning round?	Binary
7.415	Will the incarceration rate in the US drop below 500 per 100,000 by 2022?	Binary
7.221	Will the Kármán Line be changed before 2023?	Binary
6.806	Will Robin Hanson win a bet that the GPT line of language models will generate < $1Bn in customer revenue before 2025?	Binary
6.525	If the US enters a recession, how many months will the economic contraction last?	Continuous
5.439	Will United Launch Alliances's Vulcan rocket fly by 2023 (a.k.a. Will Elon Musk eat his hat with a side of mustard?)	Binary
4.794	Qualia Research Institute Question Series: Will we see evidence that Piracetam is a more effective Alzheimer's treatment than Memantine by 2021?	Binary
4.635	When will the Apple car be unveiled?	Continuous
4.349	How much will the total U.S. plant-based milk market be worth in the year ending in April 2023, in millions of USD?	Continuous
4.015	PhilPapers survey mini-series: Is mind uploading thought to amount to death?	Continuous
3.474	Pathogen research rejected for publication as an information hazard by 2021?	Binary
2.208	Will Emmanuel Macron be re-elected President of France in 2022?	Binary
1.705	Will the Brexit Party win any seats at the next UK General Election?	Binary
1.527	Will Roger Federer win another Grand Slam title?	Binary
0.517	What percentage of Americans will be able to cover an unexpected $400 expense without selling something or borrowing money in 2020?	Continuous
0.319	When will there be at least 5 billion internet users?	Continuous
0.148	How many laws will be enacted during the 117th United States Congress?	Continuous
0.054	Efficacy confirmation of a new Alzheimer's treatment protocol?	Binary
-	Will Israel be the fourth country to soft-land a spacecraft on the Moon, if they do so before 2026?	Binary
-1.229	How many countries will be awarded a B or better for farm animal welfare protection by to the Animal Protection Index by end of 2022?	Continuous
-3.919	When will Boris Johnson cease to be Prime Minister of the United Kingdom?	Continuous
-3.928	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Donald Trump)	Binary
-7.603	Before 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that China deliberately misreported COVID-19 infections?	Binary
-9.083	By 2025, Will The Boring Company dig more tunnels (by length) than Trump's Mexican Border Wall?	Binary
-9.279	Will the either the USA or China improve on their score on an the Animal Protection Index indicator for recognition of animal sentience, by the end 2022?	Binary
-9.568	How much will the total U.S. plant-based foods market be worth in the year ending in April 2023, in millions of USD?	Continuous
-10.299	Qualia Research Institute Question Series: Will MDMA be approved for the treatment of PTSD by 2025?	Binary
-11.193	Will the Conservative Party form the first government after the next UK general election?	Binary
-12.913	Will Stephen Bannon be found guilty of fraud?	Binary
-14.537	What will the U.S. market for plant-based meat be worth in the year ending in April 2023?	Continuous
-14.865	Will Tom Brady retire when his current contract is up?	Binary
-15.047	What will the global weighted-average levelized cost of energy of onshore wind be in 2022, in 2018 USD per kWh?	Continuous
-17.739	When will 1 Terabyte MicroSD cards fall below $100USD?	Continuous
-18.746	What will be the sentiment of Metaculus users with regard to self-resolving questions at the end of 2022?	Continuous
-30.556	Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act before 2024?	Binary
-48.541	Will the US unemployment rate reach 10% before 2023?	Binary
-51.441	Will the federal minimum wage increase in the United States before 2025?	Binary
-54.436	Will a member of the Trump family be the Republican nominee for the US Presidency in 2024?	Binary
-63.751	Will World GDP grow every year until 2025?	Binary
-95.554	When will the COVID-19 epidemic subside in Russia?	Continuous
-112.544	Will a recession cause "suicides by the thousands"?	Binary
-125.767	Bitcoin Extremes: Will 1 bitcoin be worth $100,000 or more before 2025?	Binary
-146.620	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Donald Trump)	Binary
-160.944	Will a new land speed record be set by 2025?	Binary