katifish

User

Duration:10 years

Time Period:2016-25

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

We sometimes recruit upstanding members of the community who are excellent question writers to become paid moderators.

Fill out our expression of interest form if you would like to be considered.

3782	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
146.338	How many intentionally genomic DNA altered animals will be approved for consumption by the FDA on July 31, 2025?	Continuous
122.001	What will the average global atmospheric CO₂ concentration be, over the 2020-2021 period?	Continuous
97.473	Will the United States institute a military draft by 2025?	Binary
96.753	Will NASA's SLS launch a person to the Moon before 2024?	Binary
96.505	Will no non-test nuclear weapons be detonated by January 1, 2024?	Binary
96.174	How much will the total U.S. plant-based milk market be worth in the year ending in April 2023, in millions of USD?	Continuous
92.534	Will 100 kilotonnes of sulphur be injected into the atmosphere, as part of a single geoengineering effort, before 2024?	Binary
91.417	Will Medicare for all be passed if a Democrat is elected president in 2020?	Binary
91.341	Will Nigel Farage become Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before 2023?	Binary
90.799	Will the Second Amendment of the United States Constitution be amended or repealed before 2025?	Binary
90.358	Will the United States land humans on the moon again before 2025?	Binary
86.921	Will General Electric (GE) file for chapter 7 or chapter 11 bankruptcy before September 18, 2024?	Binary
86.228	Before 2025, will an asteroid or comet estimated to be at least 50 meters in diameter be detected to be due to collide with Earth before 2100?	Binary
84.904	Will Extinction Rebellion, or a splinter group, be declared a terrorist organisation by a G7 country before 2025?	Binary
80.885	Will Italy leave the Eurozone before 2023?	Binary
77.125	Will our global atmospheric CO₂ concentration over the 2020 to 2023 period be on path to limit warming to 1.4°C by mid-century?	Binary
75.472	Will any of the 20 most valuable public companies in the United States (As of January 2019) file for bankruptcy protection before 2025?	Binary
75.056	Will the identity of Bitcoin's founder, Satoshi Nakamoto, be revealed to the general public by 2025?	Binary
74.354	Will no evidence for a new light (17 MeV) particle be independently published before 2021?	Binary
72.858	Will Russia invade or annex all or part of Belarus before 2022?	Binary
71.710	Will Angela Merkel remain chancellor after the next German federal elections?	Binary
71.648	Will Scotland leave the United Kingdom before 2025?	Binary
69.871	Will a Wealth Tax be passed if a Democrat is elected president in 2020?	Binary
68.521	Will an ocean be fertilised with at least 50 tonnes of iron, as part of a single geoengineering effort, by the end of 2023?	Binary
68.461	Will there be a major nuclear or radiological accident before January 1, 2022?	Binary
67.838	Bitcoin Extremes: Will the value of 1 bitcoin fall to $1,000 or less before 2025?	Binary
67.500	Will the IAU rework its definition of planetary status by Jan 1, 2025?	Binary
67.119	Will lab-grown complex vital organs be used successfully in humans before 2025?	Binary
67.109	How much forest coverage loss will occur in Brazil over the three-year period starting from 2020?	Continuous
66.346	Will Mount Rushmore be intentionally destroyed or modified before 2025?	Binary
66.319	Will someone hold their breath for more than 30 minutes before 2025?	Binary
66.212	Before January 1, 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that COVID-19 more likely than not originated in a laboratory?	Binary
63.434	What will the upper limit in the IPCC's ‘likely’ range of its climate sensitivity estimate be, in its 6th Assessment Report?	Continuous
62.850	If the James Webb Space Telescope is launched, will it succeed in transmitting cosmological data?	Binary
60.751	Will any Member State leave the Eurozone before 2025?	Binary
59.281	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Kamala Harris)	Binary
58.969	When will an AI defeat one of the top-10 StarCraft 2 players?	Continuous
57.554	Will Xi Jinping keep leading China past 2022?	Binary
56.334	Will Kamala Harris be president before inauguration day 2025?	Binary
52.305	If Joe Biden is elected president of the US in 2020, will the highest tax bracket be restored to its original 39.6% or higher before 2025?	Binary
51.899	If Conservatives win the 2019 UK general election, what will be mean UK broadband download speeds 5 years later?	Continuous
51.163	Will Turkey be a NATO member continuously until January 1, 2025?	Binary
49.693	Will Cuba still be a communist state in 2023?	Binary
46.304	What percentage of Americans will be able to cover an unexpected $400 expense without selling something or borrowing money in 2020?	Continuous
43.601	What will the Harvard admit rate be for the undergraduate class of 2029?	Continuous
42.594	Will the Mars 2020 helicopter fly?	Binary
41.673	Will the U.S. get rid of the penny by 2025?	Binary
40.956	Pathogen research rejected for publication as an information hazard by 2021?	Binary
38.529	Will the USA's Labor Force Participation Rate be lower in 2023 than in 2018?	Binary
37.986	Will the number of deaths from antibiotic-resistant infections per year double by December 31, 2025?	Binary
37.498	Will total funding in longevity startups worldwide exceed $5bn in the year ending in November 2nd, 2020?	Binary
37.217	Will Israel be the fourth country to soft-land a spacecraft on the Moon, if they do so before 2026?	Binary
35.879	PhilPapers survey mini-series: Biological-ness of race	Continuous
34.895	Will an official diagnosis of dementia be announced for Joe Biden before 2023?	Binary
33.951	How many people will die as a result of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) before 2021?	Continuous
33.326	Will Republicans win control of the US House of Representatives in 2022?	Binary
33.166	Will the number of people in extreme poverty in 2020 be lower than the number in 2015?	Binary
33.001	When will the volume-weighted average battery for electric vehicles and stationary storage reach $100 per kilowatt hour?	Continuous
31.096	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Tucker Carlson)	Binary
29.392	Will Robin Hanson win a bet that the GPT line of language models will generate < $1Bn in customer revenue before 2025?	Binary
28.395	When will George R. R. Martin's “The Winds of Winter” be released?	Continuous
28.366	Will the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER) start operating by end of 2025?	Binary
28.239	PhilPapers survey mini-series: Consciousness of future AI systems	Continuous
27.542	PhilPapers survey mini-series: Permissibility of genetic engineering	Continuous
27.345	A major United States earthquake by 2023?	Binary
26.532	Will Moon Express have a successful harvest by 2023?	Binary
25.615	Will the US FDA grant Neuralink permission to implant a brain-machine interface device in a human before 1 January 2022?	Binary
25.243	LRT 2.2: As of Monday, April 27th how many total cumulative SARS-CoV-2 infections (including all symptomatic, subclinical, and asymptomatic infections) have there been in the US?	Continuous
24.367	Will an AI system do credibly well on a full math SAT exam by 2025?	Binary
24.070	Will Any Major AI Company Commit to an AI Windfall Clause by 2025?	Binary
23.622	What percentage of egg-laying hens will be cage-free, in the U.S., in June 2025?	Continuous
22.670	Will the Extremely Large Telescope see first light by the end of 2024?	Binary
22.550	How many predictions will have been made on Metaculus by the following dates? (December 31, 2023)	Continuous
21.840	Will there be at least 200 companies developing technologies to defeat aging by 2025?	Binary
20.451	When will the James Webb Space Telescope be launched?	Continuous
20.353	Will the world population grow every year from 2016 to 2025 (inclusive)?	Binary
19.879	How many subscribers will Netflix have by August 2022?	Continuous
15.938	Efficacy confirmation of a new Alzheimer's treatment protocol?	Binary
15.768	Qualia Research Institute Question Series: Will we see evidence that Piracetam is a more effective Alzheimer's treatment than Memantine by 2021?	Binary
15.389	Will Nord Stream 2 be completed before 2025?	Binary
15.227	Will Elon Musk (eventually) lose his appeal?	Binary
15.198	Will WeWork file for bankruptcy protection before January 1, 2025?	Binary
15.106	PhilPapers survey mini-series: The many-worlds interpretation of quantum mechanics	Continuous
14.490	PhilPapers survey mini-series: Immortality - would philosophers choose it?	Continuous
14.418	How many spaceflight-related fatalities will occur between January 1 2020 and January 1 2025?	Continuous
13.770	PhilPapers survey mini-series: Impermissibility of eating animals and animal products	Continuous
12.982	Will the Dai stablecoin maintain a value of roughly $1 until July 2023?	Binary
12.937	Will Emmanuel Macron be re-elected President of France in 2022?	Binary
12.691	When will the first law concerning artificial intelligence be passed in the US?	Continuous
12.578	Will the Kármán Line be changed before 2023?	Binary
11.141	What will be the ratio of fatalities to total estimated infections for COVID-19 by the end of 2020?	Continuous
10.943	Will one of the verified oldest living persons in the world reach 120 years of age?	Binary
9.952	Will the US per capita productivity rate of science Nobel Prizes fall below that of Germany by 2025?	Binary
9.608	PhilPapers survey mini-series: Is mind uploading thought to amount to death?	Continuous
9.402	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Donald Trump)	Binary
8.815	How much money will ACE estimate to have influenced in 2021?	Continuous
7.605	Will the UK housing market crash before July 2023?	Binary
7.474	How much money will be donated to ACE in 2021?	Continuous
6.931	Will a charity primarily operating in China become an ACE Top Charity in 2021 or 2022?	Binary
4.785	Bitcoin Lightning Network Capacity in BTC on 2021-Aug-25	Continuous
4.464	Will the United States test a nuclear weapon before 2023?	Binary
3.886	Will World GDP grow every year until 2025?	Binary
3.482	Will Chinese official real GDP numbers be revised downward by at least 5% before 2023?	Binary
3.131	When will the next US Supreme Court vacancy arise?	Continuous
3.076	Before 2023, will the United States CDC recommend that those who have already been vaccinated for SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) be vaccinated again due to a mutation in the virus?	Binary
3.020	Another hit by two Cat 4+ hurricanes in the same year?	Binary
2.486	When will there be at least 5 billion internet users?	Continuous
2.018	Will the Conservative Party form the first government after the next UK general election?	Binary
1.825	Will there be armed conflict between racial groups in South Africa before 2023?	Binary
1.615	Will the Brexit Party win any seats at the next UK General Election?	Binary
1.470	When will programs write programs for us?	Continuous
1.293	Will KIC 9832227 go "red nova" – observable to the naked eye on Earth – by 2024?	Binary
0.768	Funds toward a Solar storm shield begun by 2021?	Binary
0.593	Will Roger Federer win another Grand Slam title?	Binary
0.516	Qualia Research Institute Question Series: Will MDMA be approved for the treatment of PTSD by 2025?	Binary
0.341	Will SpaceX test-launch the BFR before 2025?	Binary
0.333	If the US enters a recession, how many months will the economic contraction last?	Continuous
0.065	Which image classification benchmark will be most popular in the calendar year 2022?	Continuous
0.048	What will the democracy index of Kyrgyzstan be in 2022?	Continuous
0.038	Will Metaculus release a dedicated mobile app before 2023?	Binary
0.003	Will the US unemployment rate reach 10% before 2023?	Binary
-3.761	When the first company reaches a $2 trillion market cap, will it be worth at least double what it was the year before?	Binary
-3.949	Will a scientific mission to the outer solar system be assigned to the Falcon Heavy by mid-2023?	Binary
-4.218	Before 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that China deliberately misreported COVID-19 infections?	Binary
-4.329	By 2025, Will The Boring Company dig more tunnels (by length) than Trump's Mexican Border Wall?	Binary
-6.201	Will the community prediction do better than the Metaculus prediction for the 2nd instalment of the Lightning round?	Binary
-8.655	Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act before 2024?	Binary
-8.884	Will Yang get 200k donors or more in the 2024 US presidential race?	Binary
-11.453	If Biden becomes president, will the sentencing disparity between crack and powder cocaine be ended before 2024?	Binary
-16.187	Will the either the USA or China improve on their score on an the Animal Protection Index indicator for recognition of animal sentience, by the end 2022?	Binary
-16.253	Will the federal minimum wage increase in the United States before 2025?	Binary
-33.925	When will 1 Terabyte MicroSD cards fall below $100USD?	Continuous
-36.261	Will Republicans control the US Senate after the 2022 election?	Binary
-41.191	Bitcoin Extremes: Will 1 bitcoin be worth $100,000 or more before 2025?	Binary
-42.442	What will the listing price of an Impossible Food's plant-based beef burger be, in a U.S.-based supermarket, in USD per kilo, in June, 2022?	Continuous
-44.023	What will the global weighted-average levelized cost of energy of onshore wind be in 2022, in 2018 USD per kWh?	Continuous
-51.185	If Joe Biden becomes president, what will be the yearly CO2 emissions per capita for the US in 2024, in tonnes?	Continuous
-59.830	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Donald Trump)	Binary
-65.380	Will a new land speed record be set by 2025?	Binary
-97.095	Will a recession cause "suicides by the thousands"?	Binary
-100.019	How many new electric vehicles will be registered worldwide, in the calendar year 2023?	Continuous
-186.514	Will a member of the Trump family be the Republican nominee for the US Presidency in 2024?	Binary