alexrjl

User

Duration:2 years

Time Period:2020 - 2021

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

1.83k	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
142.983	What will be the state-of-the-art language modelling performance (in perplexity) on WikiText-103 by the following dates? (Jun 14, 2021)	Continuous
124.264	What will the mean level of transit activity be in New York City for the week 2021-01-24 through 2021-01-30?	Continuous
114.777	What will the mean level of transit activity be in Phoenix for the week 2021-01-24 through 2021-01-30?	Continuous
104.834	What will the mean level of transit activity be in San Francisco — Bay Area for the week 2021-01-24 through 2021-01-30?	Continuous
101.724	What will the mean level of transit activity be in the city of Dallas, Texas for the week 2021-01-24 through 2021-01-30?	Continuous
97.960	Will the USA enter a second civil war before July 2021?	Binary
96.447	Will a single novel SARS-CoV-2 variant that is at least 30% more transmissible than preexisting variants infect 10M worldwide before mid-2021?	Binary
93.380	Will ACE or any of its top or standout charities see a scandal related to racial inequity or discrimination in 2021?	Binary
92.776	Will Donald Trump be President of the United States of America on 2021-01-21?	Binary
91.943	Will Antifa officially be labeled a terrorist group in the US before 2022?	Binary
91.213	Will ACE or any of its top or standout charities see a scandal related to sexual harassment or unwanted sexual advances in 2021?	Binary
80.761	Will Restaurant Brands International cease sourcing pork in North America from suppliers that use gestation stalls by Jan 1, 2022?	Binary
59.328	Will Margaret Ferrier resign as MP before April 2021?	Binary
57.931	Will Kim Jong-un still be the de facto leader of North Korea on 1 January 2022?	Binary
55.963	What percent will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q1 of 2021?	Continuous
53.228	What will the combined sector weighting of Information Technology and Communications be, in the S&P 500 on 2021-06-14?	Continuous
48.905	What will the mean level of transit activity be in the city of Dallas, Texas for the week 2021-02-21 through 2021-02-27?	Continuous
48.425	What will be the total box office gross in the U.S. & Canada in 2021?	Continuous
48.158	What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for April 2021, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?	Continuous
43.890	Will Charles Murray receive a long-term Twitter ban before 2021?	Binary
42.664	Will the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games take place in 2021?	Binary
41.995	Will James Lindsay receive a long-term Twitter ban before 2021?	Binary
40.105	What will the price of IGM be, on 2021-06-14?	Continuous
40.023	When will 10M people be administered a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT?	Continuous
38.233	What will be the lowest closing value for the Dow Jones Industrial Average before it reaches a new all-time record high close?	Continuous
36.861	How many Computation and Language e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?	Continuous
34.024	Will 2021 be the hottest year on record according to NASA?	Binary
31.317	Will Scotland set a date for a new independence referendum in 2021?	Binary
26.655	What will the state-of-the-art performance on SuperGLUE be on 2021-06-14?	Continuous
25.057	Will Donald Trump attend Joe Biden’s inauguration ceremony in person?	Binary
20.494	What will the Mens winning 100m time in the 2020 Olympic Final be?	Continuous
20.421	When will the U.S. rejoin the Paris Climate Agreement?	Continuous
17.702	What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on MiniImageNet be, on 2021-06-14, in accuracy?	Continuous
15.925	What will the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet be at 2021-06-14 in top-1 accuracy?	Continuous
9.329	How will Donald Trump rank among presidents?	Continuous
8.725	What will be the WTI oil price in December 2021?	Continuous
8.471	When will traviswfisher be unseated on the Metaculus leaderboard?	Continuous
7.529	Will Richard Spencer receive a long-term Twitter ban before 2021?	Binary
6.838	If the NYT publishes an article mentioning Slate Star Codex or Scott Alexander by July 2021, will it include his full name?	Binary
6.533	How many infections of COVID-19 will be estimated to have occurred before 2021? [50k-1B range]	Continuous
4.545	What will the Womens winning 100m time in the 2020 Olympic Final be?	Continuous
4.322	How many infections of COVID-19 will be estimated to have occurred before 2021? [1-8B range]	Continuous
1.478	Will an AI be trained using an Avogadro's number of operations before the end of 2020?	Binary
0.086	Will Japan place in the Top 4 at the 2021 Tokyo Olympics?	Binary
-39.367	Will the UK's second wave reach 1000 deaths/day?	Binary
-56.057	How many COVID-19 vaccines will be approved by the U.S. FDA as of 30 June 2021?	Continuous
-69.335	Will the US Senate Majority Leader be a Republican on February 1st 2021?	Binary
-143.043	What will be the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU on the following dates? (Jun-2021)	Continuous