niplav

User

Duration:10 years

Time Period:2016 - 2025

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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2103	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
94.051	Will Mike Pence be elected president of the United States in 2024?	Binary
86.379	Will 100 kilotonnes of sulphur be injected into the atmosphere, as part of a single geoengineering effort, before 2024?	Binary
84.247	Will the United States institute a military draft by 2025?	Binary
83.784	How much exercise can you do before it starts to take more time than it adds life?	Continuous
81.667	Will our global atmospheric CO₂ concentration over the 2020 to 2023 period be on path to limit warming to 1.4°C by mid-century?	Binary
81.149	Will Mount Rushmore be intentionally destroyed or modified before 2025?	Binary
80.683	As of July 1, 2022, when will top forecasters expect the first Artificial General Intelligence to be developed and demonstrated?	Continuous
79.100	Will Italy leave the Eurozone before 2023?	Binary
78.057	Will NASA's SLS launch a person to the Moon before 2024?	Binary
74.193	Will the IAU rework its definition of planetary status by Jan 1, 2025?	Binary
74.172	Will the Second Amendment of the United States Constitution be amended or repealed before 2025?	Binary
72.880	Will no non-test nuclear weapons be detonated by January 1, 2024?	Binary
72.846	When will the first course on wild animal welfare be taught at a top university?	Continuous
71.891	How many cents will it cost a typical consumer in the United States to store 10 GB of data on January 1st 2025?	Continuous
68.963	Will the identity of Bitcoin's founder, Satoshi Nakamoto, be revealed to the general public by 2025?	Binary
68.759	Will there be another VEI level six (or higher) volcanic eruption on Earth before 2025?	Binary
67.305	Will the United States land humans on the moon again before 2025?	Binary
66.675	Before 2025, will an asteroid or comet estimated to be at least 50 meters in diameter be detected to be due to collide with Earth before 2100?	Binary
64.868	Will Nigel Farage become Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before 2023?	Binary
64.808	Before January 1, 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that COVID-19 more likely than not originated in a laboratory?	Binary
63.282	Will any of the 20 most valuable public companies in the United States (As of January 2019) file for bankruptcy protection before 2025?	Binary
62.559	Bitcoin Extremes: Will the value of 1 bitcoin fall to $1,000 or less before 2025?	Binary
61.069	Will the number of people in extreme poverty in 2020 be lower than the number in 2015?	Binary
60.257	Will an ocean be fertilised with at least 50 tonnes of iron, as part of a single geoengineering effort, by the end of 2023?	Binary
60.129	Will Metaculus Inc. host a prediction market prior to 2024?	Binary
59.830	Will a geoengineering act of Congress become US federal law by the end of 2024?	Binary
59.612	Will Kamala Harris be president before inauguration day 2025?	Binary
57.305	What will the average global atmospheric CO₂ concentration be, over the 2020-2021 period?	Continuous
56.959	In which month will there first be 20,000 new papers submitted to the arXiv?	Continuous
56.662	Will a Wealth Tax be passed if a Democrat is elected president in 2020?	Binary
55.722	Will Medicare for all be passed if a Democrat is elected president in 2020?	Binary
53.608	Will any Member State leave the Eurozone before 2025?	Binary
53.606	Will someone hold their breath for more than 30 minutes before 2025?	Binary
53.455	Will Turkey be a NATO member continuously until January 1, 2025?	Binary
52.165	What will the maximum increase in global annual mean surface air temperature be, relative to the 1951-1980 base period, in the 2020 to 2023 period?	Continuous
48.911	Will the Dai stablecoin maintain a value of roughly $1 until July 2023?	Binary
48.905	Will Angela Merkel remain chancellor after the next German federal elections?	Binary
46.763	Will Scotland leave the United Kingdom before 2025?	Binary
46.573	Will WeWork file for bankruptcy protection before January 1, 2025?	Binary
46.519	Will Cuba still be a communist state in 2023?	Binary
46.501	If the James Webb Space Telescope is launched, will it succeed in transmitting cosmological data?	Binary
45.768	How many people will die as a result of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) before 2021?	Continuous
45.735	Will Extinction Rebellion, or a splinter group, be declared a terrorist organisation by a G7 country before 2025?	Binary
43.305	Will World GDP grow every year until 2025?	Binary
42.934	Will lab-grown complex vital organs be used successfully in humans before 2025?	Binary
40.953	Before 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that China deliberately misreported COVID-19 infections?	Binary
40.656	Will an official diagnosis of dementia be announced for Joe Biden before 2023?	Binary
39.112	Will Xi Jinping keep leading China past 2022?	Binary
38.228	What will the upper limit in the IPCC's ‘likely’ range of its climate sensitivity estimate be, in its 6th Assessment Report?	Continuous
37.800	Will Robin Hanson win a bet that the GPT line of language models will generate < $1Bn in customer revenue before 2025?	Binary
36.034	Hutter Prize: At the end of 2022, what will be the best bits-per-character compression of a 1GB sample of Wikipedia?	Continuous
36.001	On December 1, 2023, how many companies worldwide will pledge uphold GAP standards for broiler chickens raised for meat?	Continuous
34.786	Will there be a major nuclear or radiological accident before January 1, 2022?	Binary
31.689	How many billions of broiler-type chicks will hatch in the U.S., on average per year, over the 2022-2024 period?	Continuous
31.066	Will the UK housing market crash before July 2023?	Binary
30.994	If Biden becomes president, will there be an expansion of the Keystone Pipeline system of at least 100 km in length by the end of 2024?	Binary
28.439	How much will the total U.S. plant-based milk market be worth in the year ending in April 2023, in millions of USD?	Continuous
28.254	When will the James Webb Space Telescope be launched?	Continuous
27.442	Will there be at least 200 companies developing technologies to defeat aging by 2025?	Binary
26.851	Will no evidence for a new light (17 MeV) particle be independently published before 2021?	Binary
26.556	Out of the 25 largest U.S companies by revenue, how many will file for bankruptcy between March 2020 to March 2024?	Continuous
26.361	How many new electric vehicles will be registered worldwide, in the calendar year 2023?	Continuous
25.555	Will total funding in longevity startups worldwide exceed $5bn in the year ending in November 2nd, 2020?	Binary
23.762	Will Emmanuel Macron be re-elected President of France in 2022?	Binary
23.736	How much solar energy will be consumed globally, in terawatt-hours, in the calendar year 2023?	Continuous
23.511	Will General Electric (GE) file for chapter 7 or chapter 11 bankruptcy before September 18, 2024?	Binary
23.162	Will the USA's Labor Force Participation Rate be lower in 2023 than in 2018?	Binary
23.105	Will Yang get 200k donors or more in the 2024 US presidential race?	Binary
22.347	Will Republicans win control of the US House of Representatives in 2022?	Binary
22.011	Will Israel be the fourth country to soft-land a spacecraft on the Moon, if they do so before 2026?	Binary
21.910	How many people will be born in the United States in the year 2021?	Continuous
21.807	How much forest coverage loss will occur in Brazil over the three-year period starting from 2020?	Continuous
19.212	Will a 100 trillion parameter deep learning model be trained before 2026?	Binary
19.008	Will the U.S. get rid of the penny by 2025?	Binary
18.681	Bitcoin Lightning Network Capacity in BTC on 2021-Aug-25	Continuous
18.496	A major United States earthquake by 2023?	Binary
17.916	PhilPapers survey mini-series: Consciousness of future AI systems	Continuous
17.735	PhilPapers survey mini-series: The many-worlds interpretation of quantum mechanics	Continuous
16.818	What will the listing price of an Impossible Food's plant-based beef burger be, in a U.S.-based supermarket, in USD per kilo, in June, 2022?	Continuous
16.804	PhilPapers survey mini-series: Is mind uploading thought to amount to death?	Continuous
16.599	PhilPapers survey mini-series: Biological-ness of race	Continuous
15.989	Will the Mars 2020 helicopter fly?	Binary
15.411	PhilPapers survey mini-series: Immortality - would philosophers choose it?	Continuous
15.038	Will Russia invade or annex all or part of Belarus before 2022?	Binary
13.712	Will Any Major AI Company Commit to an AI Windfall Clause by 2025?	Binary
12.646	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Kamala Harris)	Binary
12.232	How many predictions will have been made on Metaculus by the following dates? (December 31, 2023)	Continuous
12.168	PhilPapers survey mini-series: Permissibility of genetic engineering	Continuous
11.977	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Tucker Carlson)	Binary
11.134	What will the U.S. market for plant-based meat be worth in the year ending in April 2023?	Continuous
10.021	How much less global warming if the US resumes participation in the Paris Agreement?	Continuous
9.731	Will Moon Express have a successful harvest by 2023?	Binary
9.461	Will the US FDA grant Neuralink permission to implant a brain-machine interface device in a human before 1 January 2022?	Binary
8.843	Will the Kármán Line be changed before 2023?	Binary
8.036	Efficacy confirmation of a new Alzheimer's treatment protocol?	Binary
7.078	What will be the value of the (herein described) "AI winter index" at end of 2021?	Continuous
6.755	When will the first law concerning artificial intelligence be passed in the US?	Continuous
6.386	When will these degrees of self-driving car autonomy be developed and commercially available? (L4)	Continuous
5.845	If Conservatives win the 2019 UK general election, what will be mean UK broadband download speeds 5 years later?	Continuous
5.773	When will Metaculus be linked to by 130 sites?	Continuous
4.345	How many subscribers will Netflix have by August 2022?	Continuous
4.306	Will Republicans control the US Senate after the 2022 election?	Binary
3.685	What will the mean of the year-over-year growth rate of the sum of teraflops of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500 be, in the three year period ending in November 2023?	Continuous
3.111	Will the US unemployment rate reach 10% before 2023?	Binary
1.808	When will the US national debt reach $25 trillion?	Continuous
0.264	What will be the ratio of fatalities to total estimated infections for COVID-19 by the end of 2020?	Continuous
-0.219	Will Moderna, Pfizer/BioNTech, or Oxford/AstraZeneca start producing an updated vaccine targeting a SARS-CoV-2 variant before 2023?	Binary
-2.664	If the US enters a recession, how many months will the economic contraction last?	Continuous
-5.877	When the first company reaches a $2 trillion market cap, will it be worth at least double what it was the year before?	Binary
-5.885	How much wind energy will be consumed globally, in terawatt-hours, in the calendar year 2023?	Continuous
-7.099	Before 2023, will the United States CDC recommend that those who have already been vaccinated for SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) be vaccinated again due to a mutation in the virus?	Binary
-7.260	Will the 2024 US presidential election also be considered fraudulent by the losing party?	Binary
-8.940	When will an AI defeat one of the top-10 StarCraft 2 players?	Continuous
-9.841	Will the community prediction do better than the Metaculus prediction for the 2nd instalment of the Lightning round?	Binary
-9.915	Will a scientific mission to the outer solar system be assigned to the Falcon Heavy by mid-2023?	Binary
-10.473	Will "best practice" in treating Coronavirus involve administering Vitamin D before the end of the pandemic?	Binary
-12.361	How much will the total U.S. plant-based foods market be worth in the year ending in April 2023, in millions of USD?	Continuous
-13.849	What will the cost of energy of utility-scale solar photovoltaics be in 2022, in 2018 USD per kWh?	Continuous
-14.910	When will 1 Terabyte MicroSD cards fall below $100USD?	Continuous
-19.771	Qualia Research Institute Question Series: Will MDMA be approved for the treatment of PTSD by 2025?	Binary
-21.015	Bitcoin Extremes: Will 1 bitcoin be worth $100,000 or more before 2025?	Binary
-21.604	PhilPapers survey mini-series: Impermissibility of eating animals and animal products	Continuous
-24.912	Will a new variant of SARS-COV-2 that, due to a mutation, can infect people who had immunity to a previous variant, cause more than 10M infections globally by the end of 2021?	Binary
-25.583	When will the volume-weighted average battery for electric vehicles and stationary storage reach $100 per kilowatt hour?	Continuous
-25.871	What will be the sentiment of Metaculus users with regard to self-resolving questions at the end of 2022?	Continuous
-26.568	How many publicly traded U.S.- or EU-based plant-based meat producers will be valued at $1bn or more on October 4th, 2023?	Continuous
-27.443	If Joe Biden is elected president of the US in 2020, will the highest tax bracket be restored to its original 39.6% or higher before 2025?	Binary
-32.166	Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act before 2024?	Binary
-40.108	What will the global weighted-average levelized cost of energy of onshore wind be in 2022, in 2018 USD per kWh?	Continuous
-50.035	Will the federal minimum wage increase in the United States before 2025?	Binary
-71.254	Will a S&P500 tech boom surpass the dotcom bubble for one quarter or more before 2025?	Binary
-73.658	Will the Conservative Party form the first government after the next UK general election?	Binary
-91.208	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Donald Trump)	Binary
-110.653	Will a recession cause "suicides by the thousands"?	Binary
-130.916	What will be the gross receipts of the SENS Research Foundation in the 2021 tax year, as reported on their Form 990?	Continuous
-136.800	Will a new land speed record be set by 2025?	Binary
-159.678	What will be the maximum number of COVID-19 cases reported in a single day in the United States before 2025?	Continuous
-167.826	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Donald Trump)	Binary
-189.008	When will the COVID-19 epidemic subside in Russia?	Continuous
-355.576	Will a member of the Trump family be the Republican nominee for the US Presidency in 2024?	Binary