nickkees

User

Duration:2 years

Time Period:2020 - 2021

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

777.6	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
48.573	Will a single novel SARS-CoV-2 variant that is at least 30% more transmissible than preexisting variants infect 10M worldwide before mid-2021?	Binary
41.122	Will the U.S. Affordable Care Act be expanded to include a public option before the end of 2021?	Binary
41.068	Will ACE or any of its top or standout charities see a scandal related to racial inequity or discrimination in 2021?	Binary
40.351	Will ACE or any of its top or standout charities see a scandal related to sexual harassment or unwanted sexual advances in 2021?	Binary
37.771	Will the U.S. join the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership trade pact in 2021?	Binary
35.400	Will Restaurant Brands International cease sourcing pork in North America from suppliers that use gestation stalls by Jan 1, 2022?	Binary
33.845	Will the price of bitcoin drop below $10K USD in 2021?	Binary
33.315	Will Antifa officially be labeled a terrorist group in the US before 2022?	Binary
33.179	On November 2021, will >20% of Americans believe the 2020 election was rigged?	Binary
30.055	Will enough signatures be gathered to schedule a recall election for California Govenor Gavin Newsom?	Binary
29.372	Will a nuclear device with a yield of at least 1kt be detonated anywhere on Earth in 2021?	Binary
25.227	Will Netanyahu be convicted by the end of 2021?	Binary
25.226	Will the S&P 500 experience a bear market (peak to trough decline of 20% or more) in 2021?	Binary
24.759	Will USA top the Medal Table at the Tokyo Olympics in 2021?	Binary
24.733	Will Kim Jong-un still be the de facto leader of North Korea on 1 January 2022?	Binary
23.993	Will the US see mass price controls in 2021?	Binary
23.978	Will Scott Morrison be Prime Minister of Australia on 1 July 2021?	Binary
23.975	Will the (English speaking) world be happier in 2021 than in 2020?	Binary
23.865	What will be the WTI oil price in December 2021?	Continuous
21.976	Will the USA enter a second civil war before July 2021?	Binary
20.273	What will (seasonally-adjusted, annualized) unemployment insurance payments be in 2021 Q1, in billions of $USD?	Continuous
19.894	Will Andrew Yang win the 2021 New York City mayoral election?	Binary
19.454	For the calendar year 2021, will peak monthly US unemployment occur within Q1?	Binary
19.410	Will 2021 be the hottest year on record according to NASA?	Binary
19.393	Will China reach its NEV credit targets of 14% by 2021?	Binary
18.675	Will Kyle Rittenhouse be convicted of first-degree intentional homicide?	Binary
18.026	Will the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games take place in 2021?	Binary
16.342	Microwave disruption of COVID-19 virus particles?	Binary
15.929	Will Biden keep a +5% net Presidential approval rating throughout his first six months on the job?	Binary
13.875	Will the 1000th binary question resolution be positive?	Binary
12.153	Will any of the nonprofits incubated by Charity Entrepreneurship become a future ACE top or standout charity by Jan 1, 2022?	Binary
11.956	What will the US Q1 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
11.475	Will the World Series of Poker return to a live in-person format in 2021?	Binary
8.900	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for February 2021?	Continuous
7.584	Will the major Las Vegas casinos shut down again due to an increase in Covid-19 cases?	Binary
6.812	Will Gladys Berejiklian cease to be Premier of NSW before the next state election?	Binary
6.430	For the month of February 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
6.151	Will China's Tianwen-1 rover successfully land on Mars?	Binary
4.815	What will the total retail sales including food services be for February 2021?	Continuous
3.813	When will SpaceX Starlink internet be generally available?	Continuous
3.540	How many new cases of COVID-19 in the 1st quarter of 2021?	Continuous
3.323	What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for February 2021?	Continuous
2.620	Will no CRISPR-edited babies be born in the year 2020?	Binary
2.259	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in February 2021?	Continuous
2.242	What will be the Industrial Production Index number for February 2021?	Continuous
1.967	Will Apple close its flagship 5th Ave store for a period of two weeks or longer before April 2021?	Binary
1.714	Will a language model with at least 100B parameters trained to do external information retrieval exist before 2023?	Binary
0.936	What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation on Cityscapes be at 2021-06-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%)?	Continuous
0.788	What will the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet be at 2021-06-14 in top-1 accuracy?	Continuous
0.547	What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for April 2021, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?	Continuous
0.504	What will the price of IGM be, on 2021-06-14?	Continuous
0.443	If the NYT publishes an article mentioning Slate Star Codex or Scott Alexander by July 2021, will it include his full name?	Binary
0.322	Will the NYT end up publishing any articles mentioning SSC or SA in the next year?	Binary
0.301	What will be the sum of the performance (in exaFLOPS) of the top 500 supercomputers in the following dates? (June 2021)	Continuous
-4.843	Will Derek Chauvin be acquitted of all murder charges?	Binary
-5.610	If Lesswrong holds a similar Petrov Day event in 2021, will the "red button" be pressed?	Binary
-6.088	Will an airborne wind energy system of at least 100kW be sold before 2022?	Binary
-6.502	Will Washington state’s Department of Revenue report a gross business income for Q1 2021 that reaches or exceeds pre-COVID levels from Q1 2019?	Binary
-6.932	Will Mathias Cormann become the next secretary-general of the OECD?	Binary
-7.824	Will the Open Courts Act become law?	Binary
-13.450	Will Japan place in the Top 4 at the 2021 Tokyo Olympics?	Binary
-20.447	Will Scotland set a date for a new independence referendum in 2021?	Binary
-26.093	Will the world agree to new climate targets at the 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference?	Binary
-29.247	Will North Korea launch another intercontinental ballistic missile before 2022?	Binary