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User

Duration:2 years

Time Period:2020 - 2021

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

783.7	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
69.451	What will the maximum z-score be for Denmark for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo?	Continuous
65.990	What will be the market cap of MSFT, AAPL, GOOG, FB, AMZN on December 31, 2021 as a percentage of the total S&P500?	Continuous
59.101	Will the U.S. Affordable Care Act be expanded to include a public option before the end of 2021?	Binary
58.127	Will a single novel SARS-CoV-2 variant that is at least 30% more transmissible than preexisting variants infect 10M worldwide before mid-2021?	Binary
57.220	What will be the U.S. GDP growth (year on year) in 2021?	Continuous
55.052	Will Antifa officially be labeled a terrorist group in the US before 2022?	Binary
52.349	Will the U.S. join the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership trade pact in 2021?	Binary
50.232	What will the maximum z-score be for Greece for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo?	Continuous
48.669	Will the price of bitcoin drop below $10K USD in 2021?	Binary
42.522	What will be the total box office gross in the U.S. & Canada in 2021?	Continuous
42.023	On November 2021, will >20% of Americans believe the 2020 election was rigged?	Binary
40.767	What will be the total number of commercial flights in operation on 30 June 2021?	Continuous
39.056	Will Netanyahu be convicted by the end of 2021?	Binary
37.476	Will the S&P 500 experience a bear market (peak to trough decline of 20% or more) in 2021?	Binary
36.611	Will the US see mass price controls in 2021?	Binary
33.576	What will be the total number of COVID-19 vaccine doses purchased by the U.S. as of 30 June 2021?	Continuous
32.598	Will 2021 be the hottest year on record according to NASA?	Binary
32.117	What will be the WTI oil price in December 2021?	Continuous
30.727	Will Scott Morrison be Prime Minister of Australia on 1 July 2021?	Binary
29.883	What will unemployment be in the US in 2021?	Continuous
24.956	How many electric vehicles will Tesla produce (units delivered) in 2021?	Continuous
22.426	What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. by the end of 2021?	Continuous
20.328	Will Biden keep a +5% net Presidential approval rating throughout his first six months on the job?	Binary
19.882	Will Kyle Rittenhouse be convicted of first-degree intentional homicide?	Binary
17.913	Will Andrew Yang win the 2021 New York City mayoral election?	Binary
17.460	Will the USA enter a second civil war before July 2021?	Binary
15.770	When will the 7-day moving average of daily confirmed COVID-19 cases first drop below 10% of a previous peak in the US?	Continuous
14.347	Will the World Series of Poker return to a live in-person format in 2021?	Binary
11.906	What will (seasonally-adjusted, annualized) unemployment insurance payments be in 2021 Q1, in billions of $USD?	Continuous
11.604	What fraction of United States adults will be vaccinated against the 2020—2021 seasonal influenza?	Continuous
9.793	What will the US Q1 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
8.595	Will enough signatures be gathered to schedule a recall election for California Govenor Gavin Newsom?	Binary
7.314	Will the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games take place in 2021?	Binary
7.165	When will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be widely available for adults in the United States?	Continuous
6.591	How many new cases of COVID-19 in the 1st quarter of 2021?	Continuous
6.540	Will China's Tianwen-1 rover successfully land on Mars?	Binary
5.244	Will the major Las Vegas casinos shut down again due to an increase in Covid-19 cases?	Binary
3.766	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for February 2021?	Continuous
2.582	What will the total retail sales including food services be for February 2021?	Continuous
1.417	Will no CRISPR-edited babies be born in the year 2020?	Binary
-2.818	Will Derek Chauvin be acquitted of all murder charges?	Binary
-3.086	Will Washington state’s Department of Revenue report a gross business income for Q1 2021 that reaches or exceeds pre-COVID levels from Q1 2019?	Binary
-3.417	Will Mathias Cormann become the next secretary-general of the OECD?	Binary
-5.062	When will the US unemployment rate fall to 4% or lower for the first time since the COVID-19 crisis of 2020?	Continuous
-5.284	If Lesswrong holds a similar Petrov Day event in 2021, will the "red button" be pressed?	Binary
-11.735	Will Scotland set a date for a new independence referendum in 2021?	Binary
-15.798	How many COVID-19 vaccines will be approved by the U.S. FDA as of 30 June 2021?	Continuous
-29.311	What will be the differential in sales between the most-sold and second most-sold consumer electric vehicles in America in 2021?	Continuous
-53.041	When will the U.S. lift its Presidential Proclamation restricting travel from the European Schengen Area?	Continuous
-53.046	Will the world agree to new climate targets at the 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference?	Binary
-69.042	What will inflation be in the US in 2021?	Continuous
-113.790	What will the maximum z-score be for Hungary for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo?	Continuous