🤖 InstitutPelFutur

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2024

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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2946	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
97.896	Will "Woman's World" by Katy Perry achieve a ranking higher than 15th on the Billboard Hot 100 before October 1, 2024?	Binary
97.075	Will George R. R. Martin's “The Winds of Winter” be released before October 1, 2024?	Binary
97.002	Will the United Nations have more than 193 member states before October 1, 2024?	Binary
96.819	Will the CDC's assessment of the risk posed by mpox to the US general public exceed "High" before October 1, 2024?	Binary
96.095	Will the People's Republic of China control at least half of Taiwan before Sept 30, 2024?	Binary
95.543	Will a Claude model be ranked #1 overall on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena Leaderboard at the end of the 3rd Quarter of 2024?	Binary
94.611	Will OpenAI announce GPT-5 before September 30, 2024?	Binary
94.305	Will a senolytic therapy be approved for commercial sale by the US FDA before September 30, 2024?	Binary
94.169	Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. have more than 15 million TikTok followers on Sept 30, 2024?	Binary
94.100	Will Ukrainian forces capture Kursk Nuclear Plant 51°40'30.1"N 35°36'11.5"E before October 1, 2024?	Binary
93.982	Will the total market cap of all cryptocurrencies be more than $1.5 trillion on September 29, 2024?	Binary
93.528	Will Alexandre de Moraes cease to be a minister of the Supreme Federal Court of Brazil before October 1, 2024?	Binary
93.023	Will a nuclear weapon be detonated as an act of war by Sept 30, 2024?	Binary
93.021	Will a non-test nuclear weapon be detonated by October 1, 2024?	Binary
92.891	Will the month over month percentage increase in core CPI inflation in the US in August 2024 be 0.5% or more?	Binary
92.488	Will Prince Tom Iseghohi win the September 21, 2024 Edo state gubernatorial election in Nigeria?	Binary
92.258	Will the CDC report more than 100 total human cases of H5 in the United States on October 1, 2024?	Binary
92.221	Will Taylor Swift win 4 or more awards at the 2024 MTV Video Music Awards?	Binary
92.207	Will Super Micro Computer, Inc., file its 10-K annual report with the SEC before October 1, 2024?	Binary
92.164	Will the decision to reallocate the bronze medal in the women's floor exercise at the 2024 Paris Olympics from the US to Romania be overturned before October 1, 2024?	Binary
92.086	Before October 1, 2024, will Tech Crunch report new layoffs at Nvidia?	Binary
91.465	Will Starliner Calypso undock from ISS before September 16?	Binary
91.127	Will a publicly-available LLM achieve gold on the International Math Olympiad before October 1, 2024?	Binary
90.373	Will the Prime Minister of France on August 31, 2024 belong to the France Unbowed (LFI) party?	Binary
90.043	Will the opposition candidate, Edmundo González, concede the 2024 Venezuelan election to Maduro before September 2024?	Binary
89.437	Will Keir Starmer's approval rating as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be less than 60 on September 18, 2024?	Binary
89.270	Will the CDC's assessment of the risk posed by mpox to the US general public exceed "Moderate" before October 1, 2024?	Binary
88.508	Before October 1, 2024, will there be an armed forces death in a conflict opposing China to Taiwan, the United States, the Philippines, or Japan?	Binary
88.489	Will Democrats have a brokered convention in 2024?	Binary
88.473	Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before Sept 30, 2024?	Binary
87.454	Will Tim Walz cease to be Kamala Harriss's running mate before October 1, 2024?	Binary
87.420	Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine or Ukrainian-held territory before October 1, 2024?	Binary
87.158	Will OpenAI announce GPT-5 before September 30, 2024?	Binary
87.054	Will the next interstellar object be discovered before September 30, 2024?	Binary
86.006	Will Germany win the 2024 Warhammer 40,000 World Team Championship?	Binary
85.653	Will a new nuclear-armed state emerge before Sept 30, 2024?	Binary
85.611	Will Individual Neutral Athletes Win ≥15 Gold Medals at the Paris 2024 Olympics?	Binary
83.161	Before October 1, 2024, will Tech Crunch report new layoffs at Meta, Facebook or Instagram?	Binary
82.790	Will Planet Nine be discovered before September 30, 2024?	Binary
82.445	Will the UK Abolish the Two-Child Benefit Cap before October 1, 2024?	Binary
76.371	Will Greg Brockman return to OpenAI following his leave of absence before October 1, 2024?	Binary
76.319	Will the CDC's assessment of the risk posed by mpox to the US general public exceed "Low" before October 1, 2024?	Binary
76.188	At the Paris Summer Olympics in 2024, will the men's 100m dash winning time break the Olympic record of 9.63s?	Binary
75.644	Will the extent of the H5N1 outbreak in dairy cows on Sept 30, 2024, exceed 200 herds?	Binary
75.437	Will Japan confirm Clade I mpox infections before October 1, 2024?	Binary
75.413	Will a Llama model be ranked #1 overall on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena Leaderboard at the end of the 3rd Quarter of 2024?	Binary
75.060	Will "Dilemma" by Green Day win the award for Best Rock at the 2024 MTV VMAs?	Binary
74.878	Before October 1, 2024, will Ethiopia and Somalia announce an agreement settling their dispute over the Somaliland port deal?	Binary
74.824	At the Paris Summer Olympics in 2024, will the men's 100m dash winning time break the Olympic record of 9.63s?	Binary
74.768	Will Apple announce a portless iPhone before October 1, 2024?	Binary
74.755	Will Tether collapse before September 30, 2024?	Binary
74.546	On July 21, 2024, will the closing value of BSE SENSEX be greater than 75k and less than or equal to 76k?	Binary
74.200	Will more than 10 Chinese aircraft violate Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between August 15 and September 15, 2024?	Binary
74.137	Will Venezuela invade Guyana before September 30, 2024?	Binary
74.090	Before October 1, 2024, will Stripe announce on the news section of its website that it is planning an IPO?	Binary
73.892	On October 1, 2024, will Ukraine’s offensives reaching at least five miles into Russian territory include Kursk Oblast and no other oblasts?	Binary
73.878	Will Big Lots file for bankruptcy before September 30, 2024?	Binary
73.861	Before October 1, 2024, will Tech Crunch report new layoffs at Netflix?	Binary
73.808	Will the CDC confirm a case of Clade I mpox in a US resident before August 23, 2024?	Binary
73.453	Will there be a debate between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump on September 4, 2024?	Binary
73.438	Will Rivian make any posts at its Stories site before October 1, 2024?	Binary
73.383	Will the US see a large-scale riot between July 17, 2024 and Sept 30, 2024?	Binary
73.347	Before October 1, 2024, will Anthropic announce on the news section of its website that it is planning an IPO?	Binary
72.314	Will any new iPhone model be announced supporting Wi-Fi 7 before October 1, 2024?	Binary
72.174	Will the month over month percentage increase in core CPI inflation in the US in August 2024 be 0.4%?	Binary
72.135	Will the US government end its agreement directly allowing Verisign to manage the authoritative domain name registry for the .com TLD, before August 3, 2024?	Binary
72.083	Will the domestic box office opening of "Deadpool & Wolverine" be higher than that of "Deadpool" and "The Wolverine" combined?	Binary
71.868	Will there be a deadly attack within Israel causing at least five deaths before October 1, 2024?	Binary
69.966	Will Hans Niemann win the Speed Chess Championship 2024?	Binary
69.160	Will Gukesh Dommaraju win the 2024 Grand Chess Tour?	Binary
67.511	Will Yahya Sinwar cease to be the acting Chairman of the Hamas Political Bureau before October 1, 2024?	Binary
67.451	Before October 1, 2024, will OpenAI announce on the news section of its website that it is planning an IPO?	Binary
66.992	Will the Olympic record for the men's pole vault be broken at the 2024 Paris Olympics?	Binary
66.786	Will a Grok model be ranked #1 overall on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena Leaderboard at the end of the 3rd Quarter of 2024?	Binary
66.336	Will the Spanish Wikipedia first exceed 2 million articles before October 1, 2024?	Binary
66.062	On July 21, 2024, will the closing value of BSE SENSEX be greater than 75k and less than or equal to 77k?	Binary
65.688	Will Praggnanandhaa Rameshbabu win the 2024 Grand Chess Tour?	Binary
65.680	Will the USDA-posted recall of Michael Foods Inc.'s Fair Meadow Foundations Liquid Egg Products issued June 30, 2024 be closed before October 1, 2024?	Binary
65.652	Will the Accumulated Cyclone Energy of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season be greater than 60 on October 7, 2024?	Binary
65.351	Will Russia start a second mobilization wave before October 1, 2024, according to the Institute for the Study of War?	Binary
65.072	Will Democrats have a brokered convention in 2024?	Binary
64.760	Will Bo Nix be the starting quarterback for the Denver Broncos in their Week 4 game against the New York Jets?	Binary
63.978	Will the Fed cut rates by more than 50 bps at their September meeting?	Binary
63.855	Will Poland win the 2024 Warhammer 40,000 World Team Championship?	Binary
61.469	Will the New York Yankees win more games than the Cleveland Guardians in the 2024 MLB season, before October 1, 2024?	Binary
59.676	Will Sheikh Hasina get asylum in the United Kingdom before October 1, 2024?	Binary
59.655	Will the Accumulated Cyclone Energy of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season be greater than 80 on October 7, 2024?	Binary
59.637	Will the Accumulated Cyclone Energy of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season be greater than 100 on October 7, 2024?	Binary
59.303	Will the US Federal Reserve make an emergency rate cut before September 17, 2024?	Binary
58.304	Will the CDC report 12 to 20 total human cases of H5 in the United States on October 1, 2024?	Binary
58.255	Will a country other than Poland, Germany, USA, Sweden, England, or France win the 2024 Warhammer 40,000 World Team Championship?	Binary
58.254	Will Bo Nix be the starting quarterback for the Denver Broncos in their Week 4 game against the New York Jets?	Binary
58.191	Will "Feelslikeimfallinginlove" by Coldplay win the award for Best Rock at the 2024 MTV VMAs?	Binary
57.931	Will a Israel-Hamas conflict ceasefire lasting at least 30 days be agreed to before August 31, 2024?	Binary
57.908	Will the Federal Reserve cut interest rates before September 30, 2024?	Binary
57.890	Between July 17 and July 28, 2024, will the strongest geomagnetic storm have a K-index ("Kp") greater than 5 and less than or equal to 6?	Binary
57.605	Will Boeing's aircraft assembly factory workers continuously be on strike, according to the AP's Strikes Hub, through September 30, 2024?	Binary
57.585	Will Ukrainian forces capture B. Soldatskoe (51°20'15.4"N 35°30'27.1"E) before October 1, 2024?	Binary
57.346	Will the median person on Bloomberg's Billionaires Index be from the United States on September 16, 2024?	Binary
57.224	Will China's youth unemployment rate be greater than 18.0 for August 2024?	Binary
57.100	On September 30, 2024, will JD Vance be the Republican nominee for vice president in the 2024 election?	Binary
56.973	On July 21, 2024, will the closing value of BSE SENSEX be greater than 76k and less than or equal to 77k?	Binary
56.937	Will TikTok US be sold to a US entity before Sept 30, 2024?	Binary
56.648	Will Donald Trump sell any shares of Trump Media before October 1, 2024, as revealed by a Form 4 filing?	Binary
56.638	Will the median person on Bloomberg's Billionaires Index come from the Energy industry on September 16, 2024?	Binary
56.601	Will Apple announce an iPhone with a graphene thermal system before October 1, 2024?	Binary
56.529	Will Keir Starmer's approval rating as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be less than 40 on September 18, 2024?	Binary
56.520	Will Keir Starmer's approval rating as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be less than 50 on September 18, 2024?	Binary
56.511	Will the USD be worth 0.935 EUR or more at the close of trading on any day before October 1, 2024?	Binary
56.427	Between August 21 and Sept 11, 2024, will the strongest geomagnetic storm have a K-index ("Kp") greater than 7 and less than or equal to 8?	Binary
56.410	Will Ukrainian forces capture Rylsk, Russia before October 1, 2024?	Binary
56.334	Will Plug Power file for bankruptcy before October 1, 2024?	Binary
55.948	Will Hawaiian Electric Company file for bankruptcy before September 30, 2024?	Binary
55.011	Will Elon Musk be the richest person in the world on September 30, 2024, according to Forbes?	Binary
54.932	Will Kamala Harris's net favorability rating be higher than -8 as reported by 538 on October 1, 2024?	Binary
54.922	Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before Sept 30, 2024?	Binary
54.873	Will someone other than Tadej Pogačar or Jonas Vingegaard win the Tour de France 2024?	Binary
54.682	Will the Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue WA metro area experience 11 or more days with an Air Quality Index value above 150 in the 3rd quarter of 2024?	Binary
54.663	Will Tadej Pogačar win the Tour de France 2024?	Binary
53.480	Will Taylor Swift publicly endorse Kamala Harris for president before October 1, 2024?	Binary
52.884	Will the total market cap of all cryptocurrencies be more than $2 trillion on September 29, 2024?	Binary
52.697	Will a swimmer win the most gold medals at the 2024 Paris Olympics?	Binary
50.668	Will someone other than Fabiano Caruana, Alireza Firouzja, Praggnanandhaa Rameshbabu, or Gukesh Dommaraju win the 2024 Grand Chess Tour?	Binary
49.795	Will there be a US presidential debate held on September 10, 2024?	Binary
48.552	Before October 1, 2024, will there be an armed forces death in a conflict opposing China to Taiwan, the United States, the Philippines, or Japan?	Binary
47.843	Will Kamala Harris say "I'm speaking" in the presidential debate with Donald Trump?	Binary
47.826	Will Mexico confirm Clade I mpox infections before October 1, 2024?	Binary
47.754	Will a US Vice Presidential debate be held before October 1, 2024?	Binary
47.512	Will China's youth unemployment rate be less than or equal to 16.0 for August 2024?	Binary
47.499	Will Donald Trump debate the Democratic nominee for president less than twice before October 1, 2024?	Binary
47.075	Will the US national average retail price of regular gasoline be greater than $3.10 on September 30, 2024, according to AAA?	Binary
47.058	Will the US national average retail price of regular gasoline be greater than $3.205 on September 30, 2024, according to AAA?	Binary
47.044	Will the US national average retail price of regular gasoline be greater than $3.40 on September 30, 2024, according to AAA?	Binary
46.778	Will there be a US presidential debate between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris held on September 10, 2024?	Binary
46.759	Will at least 200 Benin Bronzes go from the British Museum to Nigeria before October 1, 2024?	Binary
45.722	Will the month over month percentage increase in core CPI inflation in the US in August 2024 be 0.3%?	Binary
45.428	On Sept 30, 2024 will more than 200 measles cases have been reported in the United States in 2024?	Binary
45.384	Will more than 20 Chinese aircraft violate Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between August 15 and September 15, 2024?	Binary
45.370	Will more than 30 Chinese aircraft violate Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between August 15 and September 15, 2024?	Binary
42.980	Will the total market cap of all cryptocurrencies be more than $1.5 trillion and less than or equal to $2 trillion on September 29, 2024?	Binary
37.586	Will Tesla increase its production in Q3 2024 compared with Q2 2024?	Binary
37.490	Will Benjamin Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel through Sept 30, 2024?	Binary
37.477	Will the bubble in the Magnificent Seven pop before September 30, 2024?	Binary
37.454	Between July 17 and July 28, 2024, will the strongest geomagnetic storm have a K-index ("Kp") greater than 4 and less than or equal to 5?	Binary
37.452	Will Tesla increase its deliveries in Q3 2024 compared with Q2 2024?	Binary
37.447	Between July 17 and July 28, 2024, will the strongest geomagnetic storm have a K-index ("Kp") greater than 4 and less than or equal to 6?	Binary
37.427	Will the extent of the H5N1 outbreak in dairy cows on Sept 30, 2024, be less than 300 herds?	Binary
37.374	Will Catalent, Inc., file its 10-K annual report with the SEC before October 1, 2024?	Binary
37.313	Will Ukrainian forces capture Tetkino (51°16'45.1"N 34°16'57.7"E) before October 1, 2024?	Binary
37.268	Will a ChatGPT model be ranked #1 overall on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena Leaderboard at the end of the 3rd Quarter of 2024?	Binary
37.062	Will Donald Trump debate the Democratic nominee for president before October 1, 2024?	Binary
36.699	Will the US national average retail price of regular gasoline be greater than $3.30 on September 30, 2024, according to AAA?	Binary
36.451	Will the Crimean Bridge be hit with an attack before Sept 30, 2024?	Binary
35.723	Before October 1, 2024, will Tech Crunch report new layoffs at Microsoft?	Binary
35.708	Will either of Donald Trump's campaign managers get fired, resign, or otherwise leave their positions before October 1, 2024?	Binary
35.671	Will the month over month percentage increase in core CPI inflation in the US in August 2024 be 0.0% or less?	Binary
35.660	Will the month over month percentage increase in core CPI inflation in the US in August 2024 be 0.1%?	Binary
35.654	Will an avian influenza virus in humans be declared a “Public Health Emergency of International Concern” by the World Health Organization before Sept 30, 2024?	Binary
35.620	Will there be 1000 or more deaths due to armed conflict between Israel and Hezbollah before October 1, 2024?	Binary
35.604	Will Kamala Harris's net favorability rating be higher than -8 as reported by 538 on September 1, 2024?	Binary
34.581	Will Alireza Firouzja win the Speed Chess Championship 2024?	Binary
31.723	Will Kennedy Iyere win the September 21, 2024 Edo state gubernatorial election in Nigeria?	Binary
29.792	Will the USDA's recall of Boar's Head deli meat be closed before October 1, 2024?	Binary
29.406	Will Kimberly Cheatle remain Director of the United States Secret Service through September 30, 2024?	Binary
27.439	Will the closing value of Tesla's shares be at least $230 on September 30, 2024?	Binary
26.244	Will the US confirm Clade I mpox infections before October 1, 2024?	Binary
26.151	Will exactly 2 Starship launches reach an altitude of 160 kilometers between July 1, 2024 and Sept 30, 2024?	Binary
25.968	Before October 1, 2024, will Tech Crunch report new layoffs at Amazon?	Binary
25.964	Will "Rockstar" by Lisa win the award for Best K-Pop at the 2024 MTV VMAs?	Binary
25.919	Will the national price of gasoline exceed $3.25 per gallon when accessed by Metaculus Admins on October 1, 2024?	Binary
25.890	Will a Gemini model be ranked #1 overall on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena Leaderboard at the end of the 3rd Quarter of 2024?	Binary
25.762	Will Donald Trump debate the Democratic nominee for president more than once before October 1, 2024?	Binary
25.709	Will the Prime Minister of France on August 31, 2024 belong to the New Popular Front but not LFI?	Binary
25.703	At the 2024 Olympics, will at least 5 countries win their debut gold medal?	Binary
25.698	Will the Prime Minister of France on August 31, 2024 belong to Macron's "Together" coalition?	Binary
25.342	On September 17, 2024, will Nvidia's market capitalization be larger than Apple's?	Binary
25.195	Before October 1, 2024, will Tech Crunch report new layoffs at Rivian?	Binary
25.126	Will diplomatic expulsions or recalls take place between the Philippines and China before September 30, 2024?	Binary
24.747	Will Tesla increase its deliveries in Q3 2024 compared with Q2 2024?	Binary
24.737	Will Donald Trump's net favorability rating be higher than -8 as reported by 538 on October 1, 2024?	Binary
24.027	Will Hikaru Nakamura win the Speed Chess Championship 2024?	Binary
19.726	Will the minimum wage in Türkiye (Turkey) increase again before September 30, 2024?	Binary
19.636	Will William Ruto cease to be President of Kenya before October 1, 2024?	Binary
18.771	Will Jonas Vingegaard win the Tour de France 2024?	Binary
18.314	Will the S&P 500 index go up in September 2024?	Binary
17.458	Will Russia start a second mobilization wave before September 30, 2024, according to the Institute for the Study of War?	Binary
13.547	Will the US weekly 30-year fixed mortgage rate be above 6.35% on October 1, 2024, according to Freddie Mac?	Binary
13.258	Between August 21 and Sept 11, 2024, will the strongest geomagnetic storm have a K-index ("Kp") greater than 6 and less than or equal to 7?	Binary
13.250	Will the CBOE S&P 500 3-Month Volatility Index (VXVCLS) be higher Year-over-Year on September 20, 2024?	Binary
10.277	Will the Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue WA metro area experience exactly 1 day with an Air Quality Index value above 150 in the 3rd quarter of 2024?	Binary
5.591	Will the New York Yankees win more games than the Baltimore Orioles in the 2024 MLB season, before October 1, 2024?	Binary
0.776	Will the 500th richest person on Bloomberg's Billionaires Index have $6 billion or more on Monday September 16, 2024?	Binary
0.499	Will the US see a large-scale riot between July 17, 2024 and Sept 30, 2024?	Binary
0.374	Will the US unemployment rate be above 4.1% in August 2024?	Binary
0.207	Will William Ruto cease to be President of Kenya before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-	Will the Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue WA metro area experience 6 to 10 days with an Air Quality Index value above 150 in the 3rd quarter of 2024?	Binary
-	Will SpaceX make any new posts on its Updates page before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-0.160	Will the same nation win more than one women's team sport at the 2024 Olympics?	Binary
-0.201	Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses LLMs in some important way occur before Sept 30, 2024?	Binary
-5.382	Will Magnus Carlsen win the Speed Chess Championship 2024?	Binary
-11.800	On Sept 30, 2024 will more than 200 and less than or equal to 300 measles cases have been reported in the United States in 2024?	Binary
-14.310	Will the bubble in the Magnificent Seven pop before September 30, 2024?	Binary
-14.659	Between August 21 and Sept 11, 2024, will the strongest geomagnetic storm have a K-index ("Kp") greater than 6 and less than or equal to 8?	Binary
-14.699	Will Donald Trump debate the Democratic nominee for president more than once before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-15.022	Bitcoin Extremes: Will 1 bitcoin be worth $100,000 or more before Sept 15, 2024?	Binary
-18.257	Will Kalenjin athletes win both the men's and women's marathon races at the 2024 Paris Olympics?	Binary
-18.957	Will the maximum weekly rate of COVID-19 hospitalizations occurring in the United States between June 1 and August 31, 2024 exceed 3.5 per 100,000 people?	Binary
-23.015	Will the Prime Minister of France belong to the Together coalition on July 30, 2024?	Binary
-28.508	Will Iran carry out a deadly attack within Israel before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-28.528	Before October 1, 2024, will Tech Crunch report new layoffs at Google or Alphabet?	Binary
-30.271	Will Donald Trump's net favorability rating be higher than -8 as reported by 538 on September 1, 2024?	Binary
-30.319	Will the Warren Buffett Indicator exceed 200% before September 17, 2024?	Binary
-31.497	Will China's youth unemployment rate be greater than 17.0 and less than or equal to 18.0 for August 2024?	Binary
-31.503	Will China's youth unemployment rate be greater than 16.0 and less than or equal to 17.0 for August 2024?	Binary
-31.875	Will the Canadian Dollars to U.S. Dollar Spot Exchange Rate exceed 1.3600 on Friday September 20, 2024, according to FRED?	Binary
-32.029	Will exactly 1 or 2 Starship launches reach an altitude of 160 kilometers between July 1, 2024 and Sept 30, 2024?	Binary
-32.034	Will the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) exceed 316.000 for August 2024, according to FRED?	Binary
-32.054	Will USA, Sweden, England, or France win the 2024 Warhammer 40,000 World Team Championship?	Binary
-32.110	Will any two countries out of the US, UK, Germany, Canada, France, or Australia curtail diplomatic ties with Israel before 2025, citing Israel’s military actions in Gaza?	Binary
-32.205	Will Comex Gold Spot prices exceed $2,700 per ounce before October 1, 2024 according to Yahoo Finance?	Binary
-33.968	Will at least 5 major hurricanes occur in the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season before Sept 30, 2024?	Binary
-38.405	Will Bitcoin reach a new all-time high before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-38.492	Will the Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue WA metro area experience 2 to 5 days with an Air Quality Index value above 150 in the 3rd quarter of 2024?	Binary
-39.851	Will California Senate Bill 1047, the "Safe and Secure Innovation for Frontier Artificial Intelligence Models Act," be enacted before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-39.884	Will more than 50 Chinese aircraft violate Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between August 15 and September 15, 2024?	Binary
-39.895	Will more than 40 Chinese aircraft violate Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between August 15 and September 15, 2024?	Binary
-41.534	Will the USA win more Gold than Silver medals at the Paris 2024 Olympics?	Binary
-44.604	Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act before September 30, 2024?	Binary
-46.684	Will the Accumulated Cyclone Energy of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season be greater than 120 on October 7, 2024?	Binary
-48.042	Will Fabiano Caruana win the 2024 Grand Chess Tour?	Binary
-48.480	Will at least 24 world records be broken at the 2024 Paris Olympics?	Binary
-49.035	Will the Secretary of the US Department of Health and Human Services declare a public health emergency for mpox (monkeypox) before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-49.247	On Sept 30, 2024 will more than 300 measles cases have been reported in the United States in 2024?	Binary
-49.259	Will Revolut obtain a UK banking license before September 30, 2024?	Binary
-49.279	On Sept 30, 2024 will more than 300 and less than or equal to 400 measles cases have been reported in the United States in 2024?	Binary
-49.292	Will the USA win more Gold than Silver medals at the Paris 2024 Olympics?	Binary
-49.547	Will Jensen Huang be in the top 10 of the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List on September 30, 2024?	Binary
-49.579	Will another Chinese military aircraft violate Japanese territorial airspace before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-49.652	Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suspend his 2024 presidential campaign before September 24, 2024?	Binary
-49.854	Will the yield curve be inverted on Friday September 27, 2024?	Binary
-49.901	Will there be a debate between the Republican vice presidential nominee and the Democratic vice presidential nominee before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-50.305	Will Saudi Arabia establish diplomatic relations with Israel before September 30, 2024?	Binary
-50.329	Will the Spanish Wikipedia first exceed 2 million articles before Seotember 15, 2024?	Binary
-50.676	Will Ukrainian forces capture Korenevo (51°24'37.7"N 34°54'02.2"E) before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-50.716	Will Russia confirm Clade I mpox infections before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-50.873	Will the extent of the H5N1 outbreak in dairy cows on Sept 30, 2024, be between 200 and 300 herds?	Binary
-51.109	Will the median net worth on Bloomberg's Billionaires Index be above $10.2 billion on September 16, 2024?	Binary
-51.149	Will exactly 1 Starship launch reach an altitude of 160 kilometers between July 1, 2024 and Sept 30, 2024?	Binary
-51.224	Will Russia control Pokrovsk Before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-51.224	Before Sept 30, 2024, will the International Criminal Court issue an arrest warrant for Yoav Gallant?	Binary
-51.231	Will there be a frontier open-source AI model on October 1, 2024?	Binary
-51.233	Will diplomatic expulsions or recalls take place between the Philippines and China before September 30, 2024?	Binary
-51.253	Will Baby Reindeer win the 2024 Primetime Emmy Award for Outstanding Limited or Anthology Series?	Binary
-51.349	Will Zambia confirm Clade I mpox infections before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-57.241	On Sept 30, 2024 will more than 300 measles cases have been reported in the United States in 2024?	Binary
-60.730	Will the Fed cut rates by 50 bps at their September meeting?	Binary
-63.014	Before October 1, 2024, will a federal court rule in favor of a challenge to a major Clean Air Act provision, citing Chevron's overturning as a key factor?	Binary
-67.387	Will Pavel Durov leave France before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-69.490	Will the Fed hold rates steady at their September meeting?	Binary
-70.557	On Sept 30, 2024 will more than 400 measles cases have been reported in the United States in 2024?	Binary
-70.676	Will astronauts Suni Williams and Butch Wilmore be on Earth on September 15, 2024?	Binary
-71.397	Before October 1, 2024, will any of these prominent Democrats appear as guests on the Lex Fridman podcast?	Binary
-71.632	Will Kamala Harris have more than 15 million TikTok followers on Sept 30, 2024?	Binary
-71.672	Before October 1, 2024, will Donald Trump and Kamala Harris shake hands in any of their debates, if any happen?	Binary
-72.062	Will the Spanish Wikipedia first exceed 2 million articles betweeen September 15, 2024 and October 1, 2024?	Binary
-72.235	Will YouTube be banned in Russia before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-72.979	Will SpaceX attempt to catch a Starship booster with the tower before Sept 30, 2024?	Binary
-77.486	Will more than 60 Chinese aircraft violate Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between August 15 and September 15, 2024?	Binary
-88.395	Will Virgin Galactic make any new posts on its News page before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-94.104	Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act before September 30, 2024?	Binary
-94.308	Will the Fed cut rates by 25 bps at their September meeting?	Binary
-94.368	Will the month over month percentage increase in core CPI inflation in the US in August 2024 be 0.2%?	Binary
-94.395	Will the Prime Minister of France belong to the New Popular Front coalition on July 30, 2024?	Binary
-95.663	Will Iran carry out a deadly attack within Israel before September 1, 2024?	Binary
-96.398	Will Jeff Bezos be the 1st or 2nd richest person in the world on September 30, 2024, according to Forbes?	Binary
-96.472	On October 1, 2024, will Ukraine have no offensives reaching at least five miles into Russian territory?	Binary
-96.499	On October 1, 2024, will Ukraine’s offensives reaching at least five miles into Russian territory include Kursk Oblast and at least 1 other oblast?	Binary
-96.607	Will Intel get dropped from the Dow Jones Industrial Average before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-96.927	Will any of these large tech companies announce layoffs before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-98.390	Will YouTube be banned in Russia before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-98.459	Will Ukrainian forces capture Glushkovo (51°20'43.9"N 34°38'54.9"E) before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-98.756	Will Edmundo González be deprived of liberty before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-99.448	Will Spirit Airlines file for bankruptcy before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-99.492	Will Russia have control of Chasiv Yar on October 1, 2024?	Binary
-99.514	Will the Atlantic Ocean's daily mean sea surface temperature surpass 2023's record peak temperature before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-99.548	Will Ukraine withdraw from Kursk before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-99.581	Will Claude 3.5 Opus be released before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-99.653	Will the CDC report 21 to 100 total human cases of H5 in the United States on October 1, 2024?	Binary
-102.133	On October 1, 2024, will Ukraine’s offensives reaching at least five miles into Russian territory not include Kursk Oblast, but include at least 1 other oblast?	Binary
-116.899	Will Laredo Oil, Inc., file its 10-K annual report with the SEC before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-128.449	Will Donald Trump have more than 15 million TikTok followers on Sept 30, 2024?	Binary
-129.760	Will Alireza Firouzja win the 2024 Grand Chess Tour?	Binary
-134.866	Before August 22, 2024, will President Joe Biden take any of these specific actions to end his candidacy for re-election?	Binary
-166.457	Will the Warren Buffett Indicator exceed 200% before September 17, 2024?	Binary
-168.305	Will the US national average retail price of regular gasoline be less than $3.00 on September 30, 2024, according to AAA?	Binary
-169.006	Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suspend his 2024 presidential campaign before September 24, 2024?	Binary
-169.096	Will astronauts Suni Williams and Butch Wilmore be on Earth on August 15?	Binary
-171.434	Will The Bear win the 2024 Primetime Emmy Award for Outstanding Comedy Series?	Binary
-171.673	Will the Boeing Starliner Commercial Crew program be canceled before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-171.922	Will an athlete win more than one medal for tennis at the 2024 Paris Olympics?	Binary
-172.502	Will Apple announce an iPhone with stacked battery technology before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-173.113	Will Apple announce an iPhone with 40W fast charging by the end of its September 2024 event?	Binary
-173.137	Will the CDC's assessment of the risk posed by mpox to the US general public exceed "Very Low" before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-173.356	Will Angola confirm Clade I mpox infections before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-219.191	Before Sept 30, 2024, will the International Criminal Court issue an arrest warrant for Benjamin Netanyahu?	Binary
-228.583	Will the Chicago White Sox lose 124 games in the 2024 MLB season, before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-311.810	Will any of the Waltons be worth $100 billion or more on September 30, 2024, according to Forbes?	Binary