MarcosO

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2025

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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3752	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
123.668	How many acres will be reported as burned in California during 2025 on March 4, 2025?	Continuous
104.391	What will the first reported revenues after March 2025 be for the following companies? (AAPL)	Continuous
98.991	What will the impact probability (in percent) of the asteroid 2024 YR4 be on March 27, 2025?	Continuous
95.099	What will the first reported revenues after March 2025 be for the following companies? (MSFT)	Continuous
93.558	What will the first reported revenues after March 2025 be for the following companies? (NVDA)	Continuous
92.132	Will François Bayrou step down or be removed from his position as Prime Minister of France before March 31, 2025?	Binary
90.973	What will the first reported earnings per share after June 2025 be for the following companies? (TSLA)	Continuous
89.685	What will the first reported revenues after March 2025 be for the following companies? (AMZN)	Continuous
89.664	What will the first reported earnings per share after March 2025 be for the following companies? (AMZN)	Continuous
88.840	Will the following companies be added to the S&P 500 before June 30, 2025? (MSTR)	Binary
88.406	Who will win the Liberal Party of Canada's leadership election to replace Justin Trudeau as Prime Minister of Canada?	Multiple Choice
85.329	Will a fourth person solve a Rubik's cube in less than 3.44 seconds before March 31, 2025?	Binary
85.053	What will be the ending value of the ICE BofA US High Yield Option-Adjusted Spread for the following biweekly periods? (Jul 21 - Aug 1)	Continuous
80.936	What will be NVIDIA's forward guidance in their Q2 FY2026 earnings release? (Revenue)	Continuous
80.076	What will be the ending value of the ICE BofA US High Yield Option-Adjusted Spread for the following biweekly periods? (Aug 4 - Aug 15)	Continuous
78.796	What will be Nigeria's year-on-year inflation for February 2025?	Continuous
78.689	What will be NVIDIA's forward guidance in their Q2 FY2026 earnings release? (GAAP Operating Expenses)	Continuous
78.050	What will the first reported revenues after June 2025 be for the following companies? (NVDA)	Continuous
77.855	What will the first reported revenues after June 2025 be for the following companies? (AMD)	Continuous
77.583	What will the first reported earnings per share after June 2025 be for the following companies? (NVDA)	Continuous
77.571	What will be NVIDIA's forward guidance in their Q2 FY2026 earnings release? (GAAP Gross Margin)	Continuous
77.174	Will Argentina's month-over-month inflation rate in February 2025 be below 3.0%?	Binary
74.965	What will the first reported earnings per share after March 2025 be for the following companies? (MSFT)	Continuous
73.078	What will the first reported revenues after June 2025 be for the following companies? (TSLA)	Continuous
70.419	What will the first reported earnings per share after March 2025 be for the following companies? (NVDA)	Continuous
69.458	Will the combined weekly percentage of emergency department visits in the United States due to COVID-19, RSV, and influenza fall below 2.7% on any date before March 16, 2025?	Binary
68.507	Will the following companies be added to the S&P 500 before June 30, 2025? (TTD)	Binary
67.967	Will OpenAI publicly release the full o3 model before March 28, 2025?	Binary
67.742	What will the first reported earnings per share after June 2025 be for the following companies? (MSFT)	Continuous
67.187	Will the debt ceiling be raised or suspended in the US before March 17, 2025?	Binary
63.990	What will India's Consumer Food Price Index provisional year-over-year inflation rate be for February 2025?	Continuous
63.828	What will be the ending value of the UST 10Y Yield for the following biweekly periods? (Jul 21 - Aug 1)	Continuous
63.667	What will the first reported earnings per share after June 2025 be for the following companies? (AAPL)	Continuous
61.072	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over the following weeks in Q2, 2025? (June 16 - June 20)	Continuous
59.899	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over the following biweekly periods in Q3, 2025? (July 21 - Aug 1)	Continuous
59.316	What ranking will RedNote have in the Apple app store in the Social Networking category on February 17, 2025?	Continuous
58.993	What will the total market cap of the Magnificent Seven be on March 28, 2025?	Continuous
57.778	How much will Gold Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Jul 21 - Aug 1)	Continuous
57.559	What will Nvidia's earnings per share be for Q4 FY2025 (the quarter ending January 26, 2025)?	Continuous
57.078	How many subscribers will the MrBeast YouTube channel have on March 30, 2025?	Multiple Choice
56.818	How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Microsoft's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Jul 21 - Aug 1)	Continuous
54.996	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over the following weeks in Q2, 2025? (May 19 - May 23)	Continuous
53.661	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over the following weeks in Q2, 2025? (June 2 - June 6)	Continuous
53.457	On March 28, 2025, what will be the exchange rate of the US dollar to the Canadian dollar, the Mexican peso, and the Chinese yuan? (USD/MXN)	Continuous
53.225	How much will Crude Oil Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Jul 21 - Aug 1)	Continuous
52.477	On March 28, 2025, what will be the exchange rate of the US dollar to the Canadian dollar, the Mexican peso, and the Chinese yuan? (USD/CAD)	Continuous
51.817	What will be the ending value of the UST 10Y Yield for the following biweekly periods? (Aug 4 - Aug 15)	Continuous
51.753	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over the following biweekly periods in Q3, 2025? (Aug 4 - Aug 15)	Continuous
51.192	Will the following companies be added to the S&P 500 before June 30, 2025? (ARES)	Binary
43.736	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over the following weeks in Q2, 2025? (Apr 21 - Apr 25)	Continuous
42.836	What will bitcoin's dominance in the cryptocurrency market be on March 30, 2025?	Continuous
42.591	How many southwest land border encounters will be reported by US Customs and Border Protection for February 2025?	Continuous
41.866	What will be the value of the CNN Fear & Greed Index for the following dates in Q2, 2025? (June 13)	Continuous
41.318	How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Apple's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Jul 21 - Aug 1)	Continuous
41.310	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (MSFT > AAPL, May 2025)	Binary
40.697	What will the first reported earnings per share after March 2025 be for the following companies? (AAPL)	Continuous
39.134	What will US airline passenger volume be for these weeks in February and March 2025, according to the TSA? (Mar 10, 2025 to Mar 16, 2025)	Continuous
37.022	What will the first reported revenues after June 2025 be for the following companies? (MSFT)	Continuous
36.785	What will be the annual rate of new US building permits issued in February 2025 for privately-owned housing units?	Continuous
34.369	How much will Nasdaq-100 Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Aug 4 - Aug 15)	Continuous
33.704	What will the number of active US drilling rigs be on March 28, 2025?	Multiple Choice
33.420	What will be the value of the CNN Fear & Greed Index for the following dates in Q2, 2025? (June 27)	Continuous
32.171	Will Crude Oil Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 weeks? (May 19 - May 30)	Binary
31.563	How much will Gold Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Aug 4 - Aug 15)	Continuous
30.980	Will OpenAI publicly release the full o3 model before March 28, 2025? (No) → What will the closing value of NVIDIA's stock price be on March 28, 2025?	Continuous
30.838	Will Brazil's unemployment rate be below 6.2% in February 2025?	Binary
30.737	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (MSFT > AAPL, June 2025)	Binary
30.632	How many parties will be in the next German parliament?	Multiple Choice
29.560	What will be the maximum daily average CO₂ reported by the Mauna Loa Observatory for March 1-25, 2025?	Continuous
28.640	Will Crude Oil Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 weeks? (Jun 16 - Jun 27)	Binary
28.097	How much will Nasdaq-100 Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Jul 21 - Aug 1)	Continuous
26.507	What will the first reported earnings per share after June 2025 be for the following companies? (AMZN)	Continuous
26.131	How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Microsoft's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Aug 4 - Aug 15)	Continuous
24.371	By what distance, measured in horse lengths, will the first place finisher win the 2025 Cheltenham Gold Cup?	Multiple Choice
22.881	How many artists in the top 10 of the Billboard Artist 100 in the last week of March will be new to the top 10 that week?	Multiple Choice
22.730	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (NVDA > AAPL, May 2025)	Binary
22.487	Will Nasdaq-100 Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (June 16 - June 27)	Binary
22.352	Will Nasdaq-100 Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (June 2 - June 13)	Binary
21.142	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (AMZN > WMT, May 2025)	Binary
21.002	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (AMZN > WMT, June 2025)	Binary
20.417	What will the first reported revenues after June 2025 be for the following companies? (AAPL)	Continuous
19.901	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over the following weeks in Q2, 2025? (May 5 - May 9)	Continuous
18.676	What will the 2-year U.S. Treasury note yield be on March 19, 2025?	Continuous
18.534	Which of these changes to the 45X clean energy manufacturing tax credit of the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act will occur before January 1, 2026? (FEOC exclusion)	Binary
18.497	Will Nasdaq-100 Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (May 5 - May 16)	Binary
17.917	What will US airline passenger volume be for these weeks in February and March 2025, according to the TSA? (Mar 3, 2025 to Mar 9, 2025)	Continuous
17.275	How many players will Monster Hunter Wilds have simultaneously online on March 21, 2025?	Continuous
16.953	What will the flash consumer confidence in the Euro Area be for March 2025?	Multiple Choice
16.644	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (NVDA > AAPL, June 2025)	Binary
15.491	Will the following Trump Cabinet nominees withdraw or be voted down in the Senate before March 31, 2025? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (Secretary of Health and Human Services))	Binary
15.338	What will be the value of the CNN Fear & Greed Index for the following dates in Q2, 2025? (May 30)	Continuous
14.547	Will the following Trump Cabinet nominees withdraw or be voted down in the Senate before March 31, 2025? (Tulsi Gabbard (Director of National Intelligence))	Binary
12.293	What will the ratio of the price of 1 bitcoin to 1 troy ounce of gold be on March 30, 2025?	Continuous
11.563	What will the first reported revenues after June 2025 be for the following companies? (AMZN)	Continuous
11.209	Will the TikTok ban be in effect in the United States on January 20, 2025?	Binary
11.199	Will Gold Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (June 2 - June 13)	Binary
11.062	How much will "Captain America: Brave New World," "The Monkey," and "The Alto Knights" earn in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekend? (The Monkey)	Continuous
8.709	Will Gold Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (May 5 - May 16)	Binary
8.509	Will Gold Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (May 19 - May 30)	Binary
8.346	Will Gold Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (June 16 - June 27)	Binary
7.568	What will the first reported earnings per share after June 2025 be for the following companies? (META)	Continuous
6.654	Will the eighth Starship integrated flight test reach an altitude of 160 kilometers before March 10, 2025?	Binary
4.312	Will the 2017 TCJA Individual Tax Cuts Be Extended Using a "Current Policy" Baseline in Senate Reconciliation?	Binary
3.568	What will be the electric vehicle sales share of light duty vehicles in the United States in February 2025?	Continuous
3.195	Which country will the winner of the 2025 Tokyo Marathon be from?	Multiple Choice
3.034	When in 2025 will President Donald Trump sign into a law a reconciliation bill?	Multiple Choice
2.208	What will be the lowest seed team to make it to the Elite Eight of the NCAA's 2025 March Madness women's basketball tournament?	Multiple Choice
1.717	What will the closing value of NVIDIA's stock price be on March 28, 2025?	Continuous
0.772	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (NVDA > MSFT, May 2025)	Binary
0.293	What percent of the European Union's gas storage capacity will be full on February 12, 2025?	Continuous
-0.637	Will the winner of the rugby Men’s 2025 Six Nations Championship have at least 5 more total competition points than the second place?	Binary
-2.059	Will legislation enacted before January 1, 2026 eliminate the transferability of any of these clean energy tax credits (§48E ITC, §45Y PTC, §45X AMPC)?	Binary
-2.694	How much will "Captain America: Brave New World," "The Monkey," and "The Alto Knights" earn in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekend? (Captain America: Brave New World)	Continuous
-6.726	Will Crude Oil Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 weeks? (Apr 14 - Apr 25)	Binary
-7.202	What will happen next with respect to the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act's $7,500 tax credit for US individuals who purchase an EV (30D)?	Multiple Choice
-7.266	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (NVDA > MSFT, June 2025)	Binary
-7.816	Will Nasdaq-100 Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (May 19 - May 30)	Binary
-9.537	What will the first reported earnings per share after June 2025 be for the following companies? (AMD)	Continuous
-12.660	Will Nasdaq-100 Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (Apri 21 - May 2)	Binary
-17.420	What will be the total number of aircraft violating Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) between February 15 and March 15, 2025?	Continuous
-20.110	Will more than 15 million farmed birds be affected (depopulated or killed) in the United States due to bird flu from February 15, 2025 to March 15, 2025?	Binary
-25.437	What will Japan's preliminary net tourist inflow be for February 2025?	Continuous
-27.003	What cumulative percentage of the geographic area of Texas will be classified as under moderate drought or worse (D1-D4) as of March 18, 2025?	Continuous
-28.814	How many total confirmed human cases of H5 bird flu will CDC report in the United States as of March 31, 2025?	Multiple Choice
-30.551	What will be the highest percentage change in stock price among Hermes, Dior, and LVMH during the 2025 Paris Fashion Week Womenswear Fall/Winter?	Continuous
-30.998	What will the national average price of eggs (in USD per dozen) be in the United States on March 26, 2025?	Continuous
-32.652	Will Crude Oil Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 weeks? (May 5 - May 16)	Binary
-33.021	How much will the 2025 reconciliation bill decrease total Medicaid spending from Fiscal Year (FY) 2025 to FY 2034?	Continuous
-33.188	Will the following companies be added to the S&P 500 before June 30, 2025? (COIN)	Binary
-38.204	How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Apple's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Aug 4 - Aug 15)	Continuous
-52.298	What will be the value of the CNN Fear & Greed Index for the following dates in Q2, 2025? (May 16)	Continuous
-56.275	How much will "Captain America: Brave New World," "The Monkey," and "The Alto Knights" earn in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekend? (The Alto Knights)	Continuous
-56.428	Will Gold Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (Apr 21 - May 2)	Binary
-58.387	Will more than 15 million farmed birds be affected (depopulated or killed) in the United States due to bird flu from February 15, 2025 to March 15, 2025? (No) → What will the national average price of eggs (in USD per dozen) be in the United States on March 26, 2025?	Continuous
-62.818	How much will Crude Oil Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Aug 4 - Aug 15)	Continuous
-64.361	What will the first reported revenues after June 2025 be for the following companies? (META)	Continuous
-68.024	Will Crude Oil Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 weeks? (Jun 2 - Jun 13)	Binary
-94.736	What will be the value of the CNN Fear & Greed Index for the following dates in Q2, 2025? (May 2)	Continuous
-472.115	Will the following Trump Cabinet nominees withdraw or be voted down in the Senate before March 31, 2025? (Any of Trump’s Other Nominees (See Fine Print))	Binary