converse

User

Duration:2 years

Time Period:2018 - 2019

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

6.237	Weighted Average Score
Score	Question	Question Type
76.918	Would a Democratically controlled House impeach President Trump before the 2020 elections?	Binary
48.850	Will 2019 be the warmest year on record?	Binary
41.153	Will Tesla go private prior to 2020?	Binary
36.871	When will President Trump's current (Dec 2018) government shutdown end?	Continuous
33.456	Attempted crewed SpaceX flight prior to 2020?	Binary
26.286	Will Fulham be relegated from the English Premier League?	Binary
26.222	What will the community average log-score be after the 500th question?	Continuous
22.760	Will Donald Trump have a 50% approval rating at some point before the end of 2019?	Binary
22.756	Will Benoit Lecomte successfully swim across the Pacific Ocean?	Binary
22.718	Will Australia elect Bill Shorten as Prime Minister in 2019?	Binary
20.785	How many seats will the EPP get for the EU Parliament election, 2019?	Continuous
18.415	Will Louis C.K. release a stand-up special before 2021?	Binary
17.569	Will Queen Elizabeth II still be the reigning monarch of the United Kingdom in 2020?	Binary
17.521	How many seats will the S&D get for the EU Parliament election, 2019?	Continuous
16.466	Will a "sex doll brothel" open in the US before August 1st 2019?	Binary
16.253	Evidence for anomalies in neutrino oscillations to grow or fade away?	Continuous
15.900	Will AncestryDNA have 20 million people in their database before July 1st 2019?	Binary
14.867	Will Planet Nine be Discovered by mid-2019?	Binary
14.425	Will the James Webb Telescope Launch prior to 2020?	Binary
12.440	Will 2019 see the smallest extent of Arctic Sea ice in recorded history?	Binary
11.516	By the end of 2019 will a gene drive targeting malaria be initiated?	Binary
10.114	Will the 2019 Eurovision Song Contest be won by an EU member?	Binary
9.492	Will the VIX Index print above 50 in 2019?	Binary
8.525	Will Tesla go bankrupt by 2020?	Binary
7.669	Will California abolish daylight savings time by 2020?	Binary
7.619	Will the U.S. enter a recession by July 1, 2019?	Binary
7.052	Will the EU Parliament election 2019 be free from any unlawful and significant election manipulation attempt?	Binary
6.659	Will Boris Johnson become Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before 30 March 2020?	Binary
6.432	Will the current coalition (i.e. EPP, S&D, and ALDE) continue after the EU Parliament election, 2019?	Binary
5.870	Will there be another 'in-out' referendum on Brexit before 29th March 2019?	Binary
5.348	Will the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) bite a big company?	Binary
4.785	Will Daenerys Targaryen die in season eight of Game of Thrones?	Binary
4.607	Will there be another terrorist attack causing more than 25 deaths in the United States before 2020?	Binary
4.158	What will be the price of a Bitcoin in USD on December 1, 2019?	Continuous
4.138	Will a citizen of the People's Republic of China be declared a 2019 Nobel Prize winner?	Binary
3.127	Will the US-China trade war escalate after the initial truce period ending 24 February 2019?	Binary
2.910	Will the UK leave the EU by the end of June 2020?	Binary
2.485	How many seats will the various eurosceptic groups collectively achieve for the EU Parliament election, 2019?	Continuous
1.758	Will Jeremy Corbyn become Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before 2020?	Binary
1.665	Will North Korea launch an intercontinental ballistic missile in 2019?	Binary
0.525	Will Jordan Peterson endorse Maxime Bernier as Canada's next Prime Minister ahead of the 2019 Canadian federal election?	Binary
-0.070	British Pound / US Dollar parity before 2020?	Binary
-0.512	Will the INF treaty functionally continue past 2025?	Binary
-0.952	Will a nuclear device with a yield above 1kt be detonated anywhere on Earth in 2019?	Binary
-2.338	If Metaculus creates a Patreon account, how much will be pledged after 2 months?	Continuous
-2.381	Will Mark Zuckerberg be CEO of Facebook, Inc. on March 1st 2019?	Binary
-3.316	Will Facebook's share price be lower in 3 months than it is today?	Binary
-3.466	Will Tesla deliver first $35,000 Model 3 in 2019?	Binary
-7.418	What will Bitcoin's hash rate be in November 2019?	Continuous
-12.179	Will the Trump Adminstration succeed in creating a "Space Force" before the 2020 presidential election?	Binary
-12.587	How many predictions will have been made on Metaculus by the following dates? (December 18, 2019)	Continuous
-12.734	Will the DJIA hit 25,000 before it next touches 20,000?	Binary
-14.377	Will SpaceX's Starlink start deployment by 2021?	Binary
-46.702	Will the US enter a recession by Jan 1, 2020?	Binary
-52.577	When will Leela Zero or some other self-learning chess engine win the world computer chess title?	Continuous
-53.790	What will be the voter turnout in the European Parliament election 2019?	Continuous
-58.150	Which percentage of Metaculus questions resolving in Q1 2019 will resolve positively?	Continuous