gjm

User

Duration:2 years

Time Period:2018 - 2019

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

9.633	Weighted Average Score
Score	Question	Question Type
69.230	Will 2019 be the warmest year on record?	Binary
68.577	Will the Trump Adminstration succeed in creating a "Space Force" before the 2020 presidential election?	Binary
59.844	Will Boris Johnson become Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before 30 March 2020?	Binary
47.901	Attempted crewed SpaceX flight prior to 2020?	Binary
38.327	Which percentage of Metaculus questions resolving in Q1 2019 will resolve positively?	Continuous
37.076	Will Tesla go private prior to 2020?	Binary
35.031	Will the DJIA hit 25,000 before it next touches 20,000?	Binary
32.560	Would a Democratically controlled House impeach President Trump before the 2020 elections?	Binary
23.987	Will the current coalition (i.e. EPP, S&D, and ALDE) continue after the EU Parliament election, 2019?	Binary
23.666	Will California abolish daylight savings time by 2020?	Binary
19.287	Will a "sex doll brothel" open in the US before August 1st 2019?	Binary
17.955	Will the VIX Index print above 50 in 2019?	Binary
17.890	How many predictions will have been made on Metaculus by the following dates? (December 18, 2019)	Continuous
16.810	Will the UK leave the EU by the end of June 2020?	Binary
15.813	Will Facebook's share price be lower in 3 months than it is today?	Binary
15.453	When will President Trump's current (Dec 2018) government shutdown end?	Continuous
14.488	Will the US-China trade war escalate after the initial truce period ending 24 February 2019?	Binary
13.412	How many seats will the various eurosceptic groups collectively achieve for the EU Parliament election, 2019?	Continuous
12.332	Will the James Webb Telescope Launch prior to 2020?	Binary
12.089	How many seats will the EPP get for the EU Parliament election, 2019?	Continuous
11.539	Will SpaceX's Starlink start deployment by 2021?	Binary
11.117	Will the U.S. enter a recession by July 1, 2019?	Binary
8.198	Will AncestryDNA have 20 million people in their database before July 1st 2019?	Binary
5.658	Will Donald Trump have a 50% approval rating at some point before the end of 2019?	Binary
4.674	Will Tesla deliver first $35,000 Model 3 in 2019?	Binary
3.674	Will Fulham be relegated from the English Premier League?	Binary
3.645	Will Jordan Peterson endorse Maxime Bernier as Canada's next Prime Minister ahead of the 2019 Canadian federal election?	Binary
3.365	What will be the price of a Bitcoin in USD on December 1, 2019?	Continuous
2.774	Will 2019 see the smallest extent of Arctic Sea ice in recorded history?	Binary
2.703	Will Tesla go bankrupt by 2020?	Binary
2.598	Will Benoit Lecomte successfully swim across the Pacific Ocean?	Binary
2.540	If Metaculus creates a Patreon account, how much will be pledged after 2 months?	Continuous
1.551	Will genetic data from a new Denisova hominin be published in the first 6 months of 2019?	Binary
1.442	When will Leela Zero or some other self-learning chess engine win the world computer chess title?	Continuous
0.626	Will the EU Parliament election 2019 be free from any unlawful and significant election manipulation attempt?	Binary
0.595	How many seats will the S&D get for the EU Parliament election, 2019?	Continuous
0.317	Will Australia elect Bill Shorten as Prime Minister in 2019?	Binary
-0.095	Will Jeremy Corbyn become Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before 2020?	Binary
-1.829	Will Planet Nine be Discovered by mid-2019?	Binary
-2.119	Will there be another 'in-out' referendum on Brexit before 29th March 2019?	Binary
-3.378	Will Mark Zuckerberg be CEO of Facebook, Inc. on March 1st 2019?	Binary
-5.091	Will the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) bite a big company?	Binary
-5.489	Will Queen Elizabeth II still be the reigning monarch of the United Kingdom in 2020?	Binary
-5.958	British Pound / US Dollar parity before 2020?	Binary
-6.049	Will there be another terrorist attack causing more than 25 deaths in the United States before 2020?	Binary
-7.785	Will a citizen of the People's Republic of China be declared a 2019 Nobel Prize winner?	Binary
-9.792	What will the community average log-score be after the 500th question?	Continuous
-14.435	What will be the voter turnout in the European Parliament election 2019?	Continuous
-18.666	Will Louis C.K. release a stand-up special before 2021?	Binary
-22.313	Will the 2019 Eurovision Song Contest be won by an EU member?	Binary
-25.774	Will North Korea launch an intercontinental ballistic missile in 2019?	Binary
-29.073	Will a nuclear device with a yield above 1kt be detonated anywhere on Earth in 2019?	Binary