akarlin

User

Duration:2 years

Time Period:2022 - 2023

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

12	Weighted Average Score
Score	Question	Question Type
169.636	What will Russia's nominal GDP be in 2022, in trillions of USD?	Continuous
151.129	Will Sweden join NATO before 2024?	Binary
54.004	Will a major nuclear power plant in Germany be operational on June 1, 2023?	Binary
46.447	Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2023?	Binary
31.341	On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Zaporizhzhia?	Binary
23.517	Will Russia control any formerly Ukrainian territories other than LNR, DNR, or Crimea on January 1, 2024?	Binary
23.501	How much foreign aid will the US provide Ukraine in 2022?	Continuous
21.330	How many Internally Displaced Ukrainians will be estimated by the UN in 2022?	Continuous
21.154	By 2024, will Vladimir Putin be charged with war crimes by the International Criminal Court in connection to the Russian invasion of Ukraine?	Binary
19.495	What proportion of NATO member states, excluding the USA, will increase their real 2023 defense spending by at least 25 % compared to 2022?	Continuous
19.278	Will Vladimir Putin be the president of the Russian Federation on February 1, 2023?	Binary
17.134	Will Ukraine formally pledge not to join NATO before 2024?	Binary
15.131	What percentage of US GDP will be spent on military expenses in 2022?	Continuous
12.336	Will a coup or regime change take place in Russia in 2022 or 2023?	Binary
11.989	Will Ukraine join the European Union before 2024?	Binary
11.985	How many Ukrainian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (25,000)	Binary
11.639	Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
10.840	Will Russia be the world's most sanctioned country on February 22, 2023?	Binary
7.318	Will Ukraine have de facto control of Sevastopol on January 1, 2024?	Binary
6.946	Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
6.823	Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2024?	Binary
5.591	Will Russia be removed from the UN Security Council by 2024?	Binary
4.872	Will Russia invade Latvia, Lithuania, or Estonia before 2024?	Binary
4.747	Will Dnipro be under Russian control on June 1, 2023?	Binary
3.000	Will Medvedchuk become president of Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
2.313	On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Sevastopol?	Binary
1.634	Will at least 5 million refugees from Ukraine seek assistance from other countries?	Binary
0.196	When will Ukraine regain control of the city of Kherson?	Continuous
0.174	On January 1, 2024, will Vladimir Putin be President of Russia?	Binary
-0.592	Will any member of NATO call for Hungary to be expelled before 2024?	Binary
-1.887	How many Russian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (25,000)	Binary
-2.218	Will Finland join NATO before 2024?	Binary
-4.437	Will Ukraine join NATO before 2024?	Binary
-6.517	Will China get involved in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict by 2024?	Binary
-8.722	On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Luhansk?	Binary
-20.160	How many Russian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (50,000)	Binary
-191.029	Will Georgia impose sanctions against Russia before 2024?	Binary