Pablo

User

Duration:2 years

Time Period:2018 - 2019

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

3.726	Weighted Average Score
Score	Question	Question Type
52.116	Will 2019 be the warmest year on record?	Binary
22.262	Will Boris Johnson become Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before 30 March 2020?	Binary
15.563	When will Leela Zero or some other self-learning chess engine win the world computer chess title?	Continuous
12.010	Will the VIX Index print above 50 in 2019?	Binary
10.038	Will Jordan Peterson endorse Maxime Bernier as Canada's next Prime Minister ahead of the 2019 Canadian federal election?	Binary
7.334	What will be the price of a Bitcoin in USD on December 1, 2019?	Continuous
6.777	Will a citizen of the People's Republic of China be declared a 2019 Nobel Prize winner?	Binary
5.899	How many predictions will have been made on Metaculus by the following dates? (December 18, 2019)	Continuous
5.175	Will Fulham be relegated from the English Premier League?	Binary
5.111	Which percentage of Metaculus questions resolving in Q1 2019 will resolve positively?	Continuous
4.626	Will the EU Parliament election 2019 be free from any unlawful and significant election manipulation attempt?	Binary
4.009	Will the James Webb Telescope Launch prior to 2020?	Binary
3.824	Would a Democratically controlled House impeach President Trump before the 2020 elections?	Binary
3.304	How many seats will the EPP get for the EU Parliament election, 2019?	Continuous
2.963	Will the current coalition (i.e. EPP, S&D, and ALDE) continue after the EU Parliament election, 2019?	Binary
2.799	Will SpaceX's Starlink start deployment by 2021?	Binary
1.694	Attempted crewed SpaceX flight prior to 2020?	Binary
1.682	Will 2019 see the smallest extent of Arctic Sea ice in recorded history?	Binary
1.650	Will Louis C.K. release a stand-up special before 2021?	Binary
1.637	What will Bitcoin's hash rate be in November 2019?	Continuous
1.130	What will the community average log-score be after the 500th question?	Continuous
0.896	Will Daenerys Targaryen die in season eight of Game of Thrones?	Binary
0.538	How many seats will the S&D get for the EU Parliament election, 2019?	Continuous
0.531	Will the Trump Adminstration succeed in creating a "Space Force" before the 2020 presidential election?	Binary
0.467	Will a "sex doll brothel" open in the US before August 1st 2019?	Binary
0.372	Will North Korea launch an intercontinental ballistic missile in 2019?	Binary
0.337	Will AncestryDNA have 20 million people in their database before July 1st 2019?	Binary
-0.138	Will Australia elect Bill Shorten as Prime Minister in 2019?	Binary
-0.318	How many seats will the various eurosceptic groups collectively achieve for the EU Parliament election, 2019?	Continuous
-1.678	Will the 2019 Eurovision Song Contest be won by an EU member?	Binary
-4.203	Will Tesla deliver first $35,000 Model 3 in 2019?	Binary
-19.378	What will be the voter turnout in the European Parliament election 2019?	Continuous