Pablo

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2020

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

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13.32	Weighted Average Score
Score	Question	Question Type
100.182	How many successful faithless electoral votes will there be in the 2020 election?	Continuous
93.689	What will the US Q3 2020 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
93.492	What will be the doubling time of COVID-19 cases during the peak growth period in 2020?	Continuous
92.488	What will be the S&P 500 end-of-day low in 2020?	Continuous
86.368	How many thousand cattle will be slaughtered in Australia in Q4 2020?	Continuous
73.579	When will the second US presidential debate take place?	Continuous
64.126	Will there be at least 10 fatalites caused in post-election political violence in the United States?	Binary
63.188	How much transit activity will there be in the San Francisco Bay Area in the last week of August?	Continuous
62.198	What will Tesla's market capitalization be on 1 January 2021?	Continuous
58.667	When will the suspension of incoming travel to the US from the Schengen area be terminated?	Continuous
58.528	How much transit activity will there be in the San Francisco Bay Area in the last week of September?	Continuous
57.862	How many total confirmed cases of novel coronavirus will be reported in the WHO European region by March 27?	Continuous
57.224	Will Donald Trump tweet that Bernie Sanders is a communist before the 2020 election?	Binary
57.014	Will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT be administered to 10M people by March 1st 2021?	Binary
56.702	How many COVID-2019 cases will be confirmed in the location with the most cases outside of Mainland China on March the 27th?	Continuous
49.918	How many COVID-2019 cases in Europe will be confirmed on April the 27th?	Continuous
47.652	CPI-U for September 2020	Continuous
46.558	When will a language model meet or exceed the human baseline on SuperGLUE?	Continuous
46.266	How many COVID-2019 cases will be confirmed in the location with the most cases outside of China on April the 27th?	Continuous
45.676	How many contests will Bernie Sanders win in the 2020 Democratic Primaries?	Continuous
45.649	How many months of 2020 will be declared "earth's warmest on record" by NOAA?	Continuous
44.693	Will Democrats win both halves of Congress + Presidency in the US 2020 Election?	Binary
43.473	What will the Metaculus community average log score be for COVID-19 related questions on 20 Jan 2021?	Continuous
43.030	How many total COVID-2019 cases in the USA will be confirmed on April the 27th?	Continuous
42.743	How many US state governors, members of the Supreme Court, and members of Congress will die from COVID-19 in 2020?	Continuous
42.399	How many COVID-2019 cases in the United Kingdom will be confirmed on March the 27th?	Continuous
41.979	How many infections of COVID-19 confirmed by testing will be reported before 2021?	Continuous
41.109	When will an efficacious COVID-19 vaccine obtain emergency use authorization in the United States?	Continuous
40.977	How many cyberattacks by Iran against US Govt. systems in Q1 2020?	Continuous
40.328	What will the April 2020 US nonfarm payrolls figure be?	Continuous
39.527	EIA Petroleum Status Report - September 2020	Continuous
39.485	What will be the 5-week average of initial jobless claims filed in October?	Continuous
38.851	Which month of 2020 will see the biggest global increase of COVID-19 cases?	Continuous
38.668	How many new cases of COVID-19 in the 4th quarter of 2020?	Continuous
38.505	What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for November 2020?	Continuous
38.235	EIA Petroleum Status Report - October 2020	Continuous
38.066	Will either Joe Biden or Donald Trump concede in the 2020 US presidential elections by November 17th?	Binary
37.279	How many initial jobless claims will be filed on average in September 2020?	Continuous
36.367	What will the US Q2 2020 GDP growth rate be, according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
36.283	Total Retail Sales in October 2020	Continuous
35.795	Will there be a terrorist attack in an OECD founding member state causing more than 3 deaths between November 3rd 2020 and up until March 1st 2021?	Binary
35.608	How many YouTube views will Despacito have on January 12, 2021?	Continuous
35.176	Will polling in the US presidential election miss the true results by 3 percentage points or more?	Binary
35.076	How many posts will there be on the Effective Altruism Forum in 2020?	Continuous
34.485	What will the mean level of transit activity be in San Francisco — Bay Area for the week 2020-12-20 through 2020-12-26?	Continuous
33.760	Will the UK government change its guidance to recommend face coverings in schools before they close?	Binary
32.835	What will the October 2020 US nonfarm payrolls figure be?	Continuous
32.660	How many post-suspension games will be played in the resumed 2019-2020 NBA regular season?	Continuous
32.487	Will the S&P 500 Index end 2020 higher?	Binary
32.026	Will global carbon emissions in 2020 be higher than they were in 2019?	Binary
31.342	How many total confirmed cases of novel coronavirus will be reported in the WHO Region of the Americas by March 27?	Continuous
31.120	Will at least 9 of the 12 states hit hardest by COVID-19 in 2020 be states that voted for Trump in 2016?	Binary
31.002	In the 2020 US Presidential election, when will the losing candidate concede?	Continuous
30.940	What will the Seattle Police Department report as the total number of criminal offenses in March 2020?	Continuous
30.828	How much transit activity will there be in New York City in the last week of July?	Continuous
30.713	LRT 2.3.3: Will total newly reported deaths in the U.S. first fall below 5,000 on the 7-day period ending on May 30th or the 7-day period ending on June 6th?	Binary
30.661	Will a general election be held in Mali before 2021?	Binary
30.639	When will the total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases reach 1 million?	Continuous
30.580	Will another location overtake Hubei as the location of the largest COVID-19 outbreak before 2021?	Binary
30.503	What will Washington state’s Department of Revenue report as the 2020 Q1 gross business income?	Continuous
30.337	If Trump loses the election, will he contest the results?	Binary
29.885	How many new cases of COVID-19 in the 2nd quarter of 2020?	Continuous
29.664	What will the mean level of transit activity be in New York City for the week 2020-12-20 through 2020-12-26?	Continuous
29.653	[closed] How many human infections of the 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) will be estimated to occur before 2021?	Continuous
29.215	What will the mean level of transit activity be in the city of Dallas, Texas for the week 2020-11-22 through 2020-11-28?	Continuous
29.175	What will the mean level of transit activity be in New York City for the week 2020-10-25 through 2020-10-31?	Continuous
28.551	Will Prediction Markets judge the Democratic primary to be settled after Super Tuesday?	Binary
27.992	How many COVID-2019 cases in South Korea will be confirmed on March the 27th?	Continuous
27.875	What will Tesla's GAAP net income be in Q4 2020?	Continuous
27.721	How many more Starship prototypes will be destroyed before one flies?	Continuous
27.688	When will Trump first test negative from COVID-19?	Continuous
27.627	Will the New START nuclear arms control agreement be extended or replaced by its expiration on February 5th 2021?	Binary
27.623	LRT 2.3.4: Will total newly reported deaths in the U.S. first fall below 5,000 on the 7-day period ending on June 13th or the 7-day period ending on June 20th?	Binary
27.556	Total Retail Sales in September 2020	Continuous
27.356	How many total confirmed cases of novel coronavirus will be reported in the WHO Western Pacific Region, outside of China and Taiwan, by March 27?	Continuous
26.798	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U % change from October (less energy and food) in November 2020?	Continuous
26.797	[Short Fuse]: Will Joe Biden announce Kamala Harris as his running mate in the 2020 presidential election before August 20 2020?	Binary
26.504	Will a RNA SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate be approved for use in the United States or European Union before 2022?	Binary
26.470	LRT 2.3.5: Will total newly weekly reported deaths in the U.S. first fall below 5,000 on or after June 20th?	Binary
26.310	What will US dining activity be in September 2020?	Continuous
26.274	Will Keir Starmer win the 2020 Labour leadership contest?	Binary
26.094	How many COVID-19 cases in the Netherlands will be confirmed on April the 27th?	Continuous
26.091	What proportion of novel coronavirus infections outside China by March 27 will be due to exposure in China?	Continuous
25.675	What will the mean level of transit activity be in the city of Dallas, Texas for the week 2020-12-20 through 2020-12-26?	Continuous
25.565	How many (cumulative) total confirmed cases of COVID-2019 will be reported in the United Kingdom on April the 27th?	Continuous
25.283	Will it be reported that Trump has tested positive for COVID-19 in 2020?	Binary
24.982	How many people will die due to Ebola infection as a result of the Équateur Province Ebola outbreak before January 1 2021?	Continuous
24.940	Will a vaccine targeted at the 2019 novel coronavirus (Covid-19) be administered to at least 10,000 people in 2020?	Binary
24.766	What will the mean level of transit activity be in Phoenix for the week 2020-10-25 through 2020-10-31?	Continuous
24.764	How many total confirmed cases of novel coronavirus will be reported in the WHO African region by March 27?	Continuous
24.760	On January 1st, 2021, will Americans' opposition to Black Lives Matter be higher than 40%?	Binary
24.756	How many total confirmed cases of novel coronavirus will be reported in the WHO South-East Asia Region by March 27?	Continuous
24.557	When will the next justice be confirmed to the Supreme Court of the United States?	Continuous
24.365	Will 538 outperform PredictIt forecasting the 2020 Presidential Elections?	Binary
24.082	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for December 2020	Continuous
23.099	Will most UK schools reopen in time for the 2020-2021 academic year?	Binary
22.952	What will the mean level of transit activity be in New York City for the week 2020-11-22 through 2020-11-28?	Continuous
22.742	Will Netanyahu remain Israeli's Prime Minister till the end of 2020?	Binary
22.505	Will North Korea launch an intercontinental ballistic missile in 2020?	Binary
22.479	Will remdesivir be administered to at least 50,000 patients with SARS-CoV-2 infections in the US, UK, EU member states, and Japan, by the end of 2020?	Binary
22.185	What will be the US unemployment rate for March 2020?	Continuous
22.047	How many deaths related to COVID-19 will be reported, as opposed to estimated, by WHO before 2021?	Continuous
21.759	How many named tropical storms will there be in the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season?	Continuous
21.398	In second edition of the Animal Protection Index how many countries will be listed with B or A grades on the indicator for "Formal Recognition of Animal Sentience"?	Continuous
21.386	Will at least 200,000 COVID-19 deaths be reported in any single calendar month in 2020?	Binary
21.202	What proportion of House Republican incumbents will be defeated in the 2020 election?	Continuous
21.156	Will the US see a massive riot in 2020?	Binary
21.134	What percentage of US voters will support the Black Lives Matter movement on election day 2020?	Continuous
20.957	If he runs, how many votes will Kanye West win in the 2020 US presidential election?	Continuous
20.502	Will the S&P 500 close higher for 2020?	Binary
20.233	How many ratings will Toby Ord's book The Precipice have on Amazon on January 1st 2021?	Continuous
20.033	What will the total retail sales including food services be for November 2020?	Continuous
19.969	Will Wayne Hsiung be elected mayor of Berkeley in 2020?	Binary
19.522	Will Beyond Meat outperform the the general U.S. stock market in 2020?	Binary
18.950	What fraction of US Congress seats will be held by people of color following the election on November 3, 2020?	Continuous
18.710	Before 2020-05-17, will at least two public health agencies claim that China deliberately misreported COVID-19 infections?	Binary
18.677	[Short fuse]: Will Tesla's stock price close below $1,000 per share before 2021?	Binary
18.571	Will UK schools close before the Christmas Holiday?	Binary
18.411	[Short-Fuse] Will the NBA playoffs finish as planned?	Binary
18.342	Will there be a "no-deal" Brexit at the end of 2020?	Binary
18.289	How many cumulative confirmed cases of coronavirus in the entire Bay Area will be reported by Johns Hopkins CSSE on April 1st, 2020?	Continuous
18.040	How many total confirmed cases of coronavirus will be reported by Johns Hopkin's CSSE on February 3rd?	Continuous
18.035	[Short Fuse] Will Gladys Berejiklian cease to be Premier of NSW by 1 December 2020?	Binary
17.931	What will the September 2020 US nonfarm payrolls figure be?	Continuous
17.930	What will the August 2020 US nonfarm payrolls figure be?	Continuous
17.920	When will the total international (outside mainland China) cases of COVID-19 exceed the total cases within mainland China?	Continuous
17.911	What will the mean level of transit activity be in Phoenix for the week 2020-11-22 through 2020-11-28?	Continuous
17.659	Will the Democrats hold the US House of Representatives in the 2020 Election?	Binary
17.591	LRT 2.1: What is the number of total confirmed cases in the US that COVID Tracker will have in the daily report this coming Sunday, May 3rd?	Continuous
17.504	Will the US federal government shut down all non-essential services by 2020-04-19?	Binary
16.955	What fraction of the US Congress will be held by women following the election on November 3, 2020?	Continuous
16.857	Will the CDC issue a Level 3 Travel Health Notice for France by May 1?	Binary
16.546	Will North Korea launch an intercontinental ballistic missile between November 3rd 2020 and March 1st 2021?	Binary
16.540	What proportion of House Democratic incumbents will be defeated in the 2020 election?	Continuous
16.531	How much transit activity will there be in New York City in the last week of June?	Continuous
16.506	How many active Airbnb listings will there be in Beijing on the 1st of April of 2020?	Continuous
16.282	How many new cases of COVID-19 in the 3rd quarter of 2020?	Continuous
16.100	On May 1st, what percentage of Americans will be "very worried" about the coronavirus’s effect on the U.S. economy?	Continuous
16.040	How much transit activity will there be in the San Francisco Bay Area in the last week of June?	Continuous
16.017	What will the quarter-on-quarter US Q1 2020 GDP growth rate be, according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
15.802	How many predictions will have been made on Metaculus by the following dates? (December 18, 2020)	Continuous
15.745	What will (seasonally-adjusted, annualized) unemployment insurance payments be in 2020 Q4?	Continuous
15.553	Will any city or town in the US be put under mandated lockdown by the end of 2020 due to the novel coronavirus outbreak?	Binary
15.313	Will Boris Johnson recover from COVID-19?	Binary
15.188	What will the LBMA Gold price be in US dollars on December 31 2020?	Continuous
15.165	By March 1st, 2021, will Israel and Saudi Arabia announce a peace or normalization agreement?	Binary
14.982	LRT 1.5: How many deaths due to COVID-19 will occur in the US in 2020?	Continuous
14.893	Will voter turnout for the US 2020 presidential election be higher than 2016 by 2 percentage points or more?	Binary
14.821	On May 1st, what percentage of Americans will be "very worried" that they, someone in their family or someone else they know will become infected with the coronavirus?	Continuous
14.732	What will Toyota Motor Corporation (TM)'s market capitalisation be on January 1st 2021 in billions of US$?	Continuous
14.699	Will all major 2020 US presidential candidates survive the COVID-19 epidemic?	Binary
14.680	Will Kim Jong-un be officially confirmed dead before May 15 2020?	Binary
14.646	Will a major metropolitan area in the US, EU, or the UK experience a food shortage due to COVID-19 before June 6th, 2020?	Binary
14.553	How many cumulative confirmed cases of coronavirus in San Francisco will be reported by Johns Hopkins CSSE on April 1st, 2020?	Continuous
14.502	What proportion of 2020 U.S. House of Representatives elections without a running incumbent will be won by Republicans?	Continuous
14.475	How many structures will be destroyed by wildfires in California in 2020?	Continuous
14.394	How many paid memberships will Netflix have worldwide on December 31st 2020?	Continuous
14.365	[Short Fuse] When will the global Garmin system outage be resolved?	Continuous
14.342	LRT 2.3.2: Will total newly reported deaths in the U.S. first fall below 5,000 on the 7-day period ending on May 16th or the 7-day period ending on May 23?	Binary
14.318	Will Biden drop by at least 5 percentage points in the polls after the first debate?	Binary
14.311	Industrial Production Index in September 2020	Continuous
14.160	Will George W. Bush endorse Joe Biden in the 2020 presidential election?	Binary
13.985	Will the Emergency Telework Act (S.3561) become law by 4/25/20?	Binary
13.833	Will any states flip from the current projected winner?	Binary
13.801	Will a third-party candidate get more than 5% of the popular vote in the 2020 US Presidential Election?	Binary
13.624	Will the #NoFees4Charity campaign succeed?	Binary
13.531	For how many countries will the CDC issue a Level 3 Travel Health Notice by May 15, due to the novel coronavirus?	Continuous
13.517	LRT 1.2: As of Saturday May 9, 2020, how many COVID-19 related deaths will have occurred in the US?	Continuous
13.450	If Trump is not re-elected President, what will the value of the S&P 500 be on January 1, 2021?	Continuous
13.350	What proportion of Senate Republican incumbents will be defeated in the 2020 election?	Continuous
13.280	Will Ghislaine Maxwell be alive on 1 January 2021?	Binary
13.225	What will the magnitude of most severe earthquake to strike California in 2020 be?	Continuous
12.975	How many Electoral College votes will the Democratic Party nominee win in the 2020 presidential election?	Continuous
12.945	What will the top CPU score be on Passmark on January 1st 2021?	Continuous
12.522	Will at least 1 million COVID-19 deaths be reported in any single calendar month in 2020?	Binary
12.275	What will the mean level of transit activity be in San Francisco — Bay Area for the week 2020-11-22 through 2020-11-28?	Continuous
12.173	Will FiveThirtyEight ace the 2020 US presidential electoral map?	Binary
12.162	How many consumer electric vehicles will Tesla sell (units delivered) in 2020?	Continuous
11.978	If Trump loses the election in 2020, will he maintain that he is still the president on January 21st 2021?	Binary
11.863	Will California Senate Bill 902 be chaptered in the 2020 legislative session?	Binary
11.816	Will a major network call the election prematurely?	Binary
11.806	Will JHU CSSE's COVID-19 dashboard remain open and maintained through 2020-12-31?	Binary
11.510	Will EA Global San Francisco be cancelled or rescheduled due to COVID-19?	Binary
11.449	Will proposition 16 be passed in the 2020 California election?	Binary
11.363	What will the mean level of transit activity be in San Francisco — Bay Area for the week 2020-10-25 through 2020-10-31?	Continuous
11.275	[Short fuse] Will 538's election forecast rate Trump's chances higher than the forecast from The Economist?	Binary
11.071	Will there be deadly conflict in the South China Sea in 2020?	Binary
10.790	Will New York City close most of its public schools due to COVID-19 before 2021?	Binary
10.604	Will there be an authentic leaked tape that costs Trump major public support in 2020?	Binary
10.596	Will (at least one) magnitude 6.0 or greater earthquake strike California in 2020?	Binary
10.562	How much higher will the annual mean surface air temperature be in 2020, relative to the 1951-1980 base period?	Continuous
10.556	Will the border conflict between India and China escalate to a deadly clash involving gunfire or explosives before 2021?	Binary
10.527	Will Trump drop by at least 5 percentage points in the polls after the first debate?	Binary
10.433	Will a TikTok user hit 100m followers by the end of 2020?	Binary
10.420	How many total confirmed cases of novel coronavirus will be reported in the WHO East Mediterranean region by March 27?	Continuous
10.352	Have we permanently lost contact with ASTERIA?	Binary
10.160	Will President Trump be relieved of his duties under section four of the Twenty-fifth Amendment before election day?	Binary
10.133	What will be the US U-6 unemployment rate for May 2020?	Continuous
9.401	Before December 25th, 2020, will cumulative confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the United States exceed 12 million?	Binary
9.181	What will the US employment to population ratio be in May 2020?	Continuous
9.100	In the 2020 US presidential election, will Kanye West win more votes in any state than the difference between the first and second place finishers in that state?	Binary
9.085	What will be the popular vote difference in 2020 between the Republican candidate and the highest polling alternative candidate?	Continuous
8.797	Will the PredictIt prediction market outperform Fivethirtyeight's forecasts for the 2020 Super Tuesday Democratic primaries?	Binary
8.690	How many geoengineering-related papers will be published in the year 2020?	Continuous
8.661	Will the 2020 Tokyo Olympics be cancelled due to COVID-19?	Binary
8.472	Will the median prediction on this question fall in range [1-48]% OR [95-99]%?	Binary
8.462	Will Joe Biden and Donald Trump participate in a 2020 presidential debate against each other?	Binary
8.358	Will any state send multiple certificates of electors following the 2020 election?	Binary
8.333	Will a woman be the Democratic candidate for Vice-President of the USA in 2020?	Binary
8.307	Will Dominic Cummings still be Chief Adviser to Boris Johnson at the end of his first term?	Binary
8.011	Will California pass Proposition 22 to classify app-based drivers as independent contractors?	Binary
7.991	Will the US hold mass-turnout elections for President on schedule in 2020?	Binary
7.975	How many total confirmed cases of coronavirus will be reported by Johns Hopkins CSSE on February the 17th?	Continuous
7.929	How many total confirmed cases of coronavirus will be reported by Johns Hopkin's CSSE on March 2nd, 2020?	Continuous
7.869	Will facial recognition be banned in at least 3 more U.S. cities in 2020?	Binary
7.571	In the year 2020, will no gene drive be launched to fight malaria-carrying mosquitoes in any part of the world?	Binary
7.562	What will be the Industrial Production Index number for November 2020?	Continuous
7.495	Will Harvard University open classes on September 2, 2020?	Binary
7.357	When will @JoeBiden reach 10% as many Twitter followers as @realdonaldtrump?	Continuous
7.212	Will China fail to curtail its internment camps programs for Uyghurs and Muslims in 2020?	Binary
7.161	Will Trump transfer presidential power to VP Mike Pence under section 3 of the Twenty-fifth Amendment before election day?	Binary
7.160	[Short-Fuse] Will AbstractSpyTreeBot win the Darwin Game on Lesswrong?	Binary
7.129	Will Apple's market cap drop below $1 trillion before 1 February 2021?	Binary
6.987	Will there be a US-Iran war in 2020?	Binary
6.849	[Short Fuse] Will Amy Coney Barrett be confirmed to the Supreme Court before election day 2020?	Binary
6.824	Will the 25th amendment of the US constitution be invoked before November 3rd?	Binary
6.590	Will China Oceanwide Holdings Group Co., Ltd. complete an acquisition of Genworth (GNW) before July 1, 2020?	Binary
6.588	Will American Airlines file for bankruptcy protection before 2021?	Binary
6.531	Will J.K. Rowling’s “The Ickabog” reach #1 on Amazon.co.uk’s bestseller list within a week of its release?	Binary
6.525	How much transit activity will there be in New York City in the last week of August?	Continuous
6.292	Will Amazon ($AMZN) make a public offer to acquire FedEx ($FDX) by June 30, 2020?	Binary
6.272	What will the mean level of transit activity be in Phoenix for the week 2020-12-20 through 2020-12-26?	Continuous
6.241	What will the total retail sales including food services be for December 2020?	Continuous
6.126	LRT 1.4: As of Saturday May 9, 2020, how many COVID-19 related deaths will have occurred in Louisiana?	Continuous
5.989	What will US dining activity be in August 2020?	Continuous
5.573	Will Art Basel occur on September 17 to September 20 2020	Binary
5.533	Will the WHO or North Korean Government confirm any COVID-19 cases in North Korea by 2020-05-17?	Binary
5.522	Will Apple announce plans to make ARM-based Mac at WWDC 2020?	Binary
5.505	Will 3Blue1Brown begin a new video series in the month of July?	Binary
5.468	What will be the US unemployment rate for April 2020?	Continuous
5.281	Will a major US website crash due to internet traffic in April?	Binary
5.144	Will the first post from Instagram’s official account @instagram after this question closes be a photograph or video of an instagram user?	Binary
4.927	Will Iran deploy no Zafar communications satellite by 2021?	Binary
4.817	What will the Brent Crude oil closing price be on December 31 2020?	Continuous
4.675	How much transit activity will there be in New York City in the last week of September?	Continuous
4.423	Will Three Gorges Dam collapse and kill at least 10,000 people in 2020?	Binary
4.403	Will the “unknown pneumonia” outbreak in Kazakhstan turn out to be caused by a pathogen other than Covid-19?	Binary
4.400	[Short Fuse] Will the Three Gorges Dam experience a partial failure before the end of September?	Binary
4.294	Will Punxsutawney Phil's prediction of an early spring come true in 2020?	Binary
4.099	Will Airbnb services be suspended in at least two major metropolitan areas outside of Mainland China due to COVID-19-related concerns before June 27th, 2020?	Binary
4.002	Will the GOP hold the Senate on January 3rd 2021?	Binary
3.999	US invades and attempts a regime change in Iran in 2020?	Binary
3.887	What will be the Industrial Production Index number for December 2020?	Continuous
3.769	Will the S&P 500 close higher in 2020 than 2019?	Binary
3.748	Will Joe Biden be the Democratic Party nominee for president of the United States on election day 2020?	Binary
3.709	Will at least 500 Indians die in clashes along the border with the Chinese military before 2021?	Binary
3.664	Will 538 outperform The Economist forecasting the 2020 Presidential Election?	Binary
3.509	What will the top GPU score be on Passmark on January 1st 2021?	Continuous
3.465	What will be the peak unemployment rate in the United States for calendar year 2020?	Continuous
3.396	[Short-fuse] Will Donald Trump's Tulsa Oklahoma rally on June 20 result in a spike of COVID-19 cases?	Binary
2.758	Will the Q2 2020 Delinquency Rate on Residential Mortgages be higher than that in Q1 2020?	Binary
2.650	Will Republicans win both halves of Congress + Presidency in the US 2020 Election?	Binary
2.539	If the U.S. sees at least 50,000 COVID-19 cases before November 2020, will Trump be reelected president in 2020?	Binary
2.524	How many COVID-19 cases in the US federal legislature will be publicly reported before 2021?	Continuous
2.263	Will US forces shoot unarmed protesters in 2020?	Binary
2.179	LRT 2.3.1: Will total newly reported deaths in the U.S. first fall below 5,000 on the 7-day period ending on May 2nd or the 7-day period ending on May 9th?	Binary
2.131	Will Airbnb's services be suspended in any country due to COVID-19-related concerns before June 27th, 2020?	Binary
2.128	Will at least 10,000 COVID-19 deaths be reported in any single calendar month in 2020?	Binary
2.002	Will the artist who performs 2020’s UK Christmas #1 be the winner of a reality television show?	Binary
2.002	[Short fuse] Will Michael Bloomberg drop out before the March 13th?	Binary
1.989	What will be the difference in July 2020 performance between the HFR Women Index and the HFR 500 Fund-Weighted Composite Index?	Continuous
1.971	How many total games will be played in the MLB 2020-2021 regular season?	Continuous
1.932	Will at least 100,000 COVID-19 deaths be reported in any single calendar month in 2020?	Binary
1.695	Will Francisco Partners / Evergreen complete its acquisition of LogMeIn (LOGM) before June 01, 2020?	Binary
1.213	Will the University of Cambridge suspend in-person classes for its 2020 Easter term?	Binary
1.125	How much karma will the top LessWrong post in 2020 have?	Continuous
0.904	Will California Assembly Bill 3155 be chaptered in the 2020 legislative session?	Binary
0.733	Did UNCW professor Mike Adams die by suicide?	Binary
0.614	What percentage of seats will Labour hold after the 2020 New Zealand general election?	Continuous
0.547	Will Brexit (finally) happen in 2020?	Binary
0.397	Which value will Metaculus least predict?	Continuous
0.378	Will the 2020 Eurovision Song Contest be cancelled due to COVID-19?	Binary
0.271	CPI-U for October 2020	Continuous
0.262	Will Stefan Molyneux receive a long-term Twitter ban before 2021?	Binary
0.256	Will Edward Snowden receive a federal pardon by January 20th 2021?	Binary
0.228	LRT 1.3: As of Saturday May 9, 2020, how many COVID-19 related deaths will have occurred in Illinois?	Continuous
-0.328	What percent of ballots casting votes on Oregon's Psilocybin Program Initiative will vote in favor?	Continuous
-0.426	What will Virtu's Q3 2020 trading income be?	Continuous
-0.525	When will Chicago CTA subway cars reopen for non-essential travel?	Continuous
-0.748	How many scientific journals will use Registered Reports at the end of 2020?	Continuous
-0.968	Will more than one entrant achieve a perfect score in the 2020 IMO in St. Petersburg?	Binary
-1.245	How long will it take to listen to every episode of the 80,000 Hours Podcast released in 2020?	Continuous
-1.428	LRT 2.4: What will the average number of new daily confirmed cases be, over the period from 10th, till May 16th, in the state of Georgia?	Continuous
-2.027	Will 2020’s UK Christmas #1 be a joke?	Binary
-2.065	Industrial Production Index in October 2020	Continuous
-2.564	How many episodes of the FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast will be released in the run-up to the US 2020 presidential election?	Continuous
-2.899	If president Trump loses the 2020 election, will he concede?	Binary
-4.139	Will the Democratic candidate for the 2020 US presidential election be chosen at the Democratic National Convention after only one round of voting?	Binary
-4.490	How will Trump's popular vote share compare to FiveThirtyEight's prediction?	Continuous
-4.655	Will 2020 be the warmest year on record?	Binary
-4.659	Will the US ban TikTok by the end of the year?	Binary
-4.719	Will the Chinese police or military intervene in Hong Kong before Summer 2020?	Binary
-5.233	Will an Aerospike (finally) Fly?	Binary
-5.305	Will Michael Bloomberg emerge as the leading moderate candidate after Super Tuesday?	Binary
-5.651	What proportion of Senate Democratic incumbents will be defeated in the 2020 election?	Continuous
-6.091	Will the CDC issue a Level 3 Travel Health Notice for Thailand by May 1?	Binary
-6.331	Will Donald Trump's first term end before the next supreme court appointment?	Binary
-6.467	Will Elon Musk's baby's name, X Æ A - 12, turn out to be his real name?	Binary
-6.753	On 1 January 2021, will the rate of new confirmed deaths per million from COVID-19 in Sweden be higher than Denmark?	Binary
-6.921	Will the US see widespread rioting in 2020?	Binary
-7.643	How many active Airbnb listings will there be in Paris on the 1st of April of 2020?	Continuous
-7.923	Will Israel annex the Jordan Valley in the West Bank by the end of 2020?	Binary
-7.947	Will proposition 21 be passed in the 2020 California election?	Binary
-8.017	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in November?	Continuous
-8.818	What will voter turnout be for the US 2020 presidential election?	Continuous
-9.512	By how many votes will the losing party fall short of winning control of the Senate in the 2020 Senate elections?	Continuous
-10.406	Will the next winner of the Booker Prize be female?	Binary
-11.231	Will the Coup-o-meter enter "Attempted Coup" or "Coup" territory by February 1st 2021?	Binary
-11.559	How many billions of dollars will the US trade deficit be in December 2020?	Continuous
-11.594	How much will the SENS research foundation raise in their 2020 end of year fundraiser?	Continuous
-11.847	What will be the 5-week average of initial jobless claims filed in December?	Continuous
-12.327	Will EA Global London 2020 be cancelled or rescheduled due to COVID-19?	Binary
-12.952	Will the recipient of the 2020 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economics work for a top cited scholastic institution?	Binary
-12.963	LRT 1.6: When will the daily number of new hospital admissions for COVID-19 illness in New York City drop below 200 for the first time since mid-March?	Continuous
-14.085	Will New York State's 14 day moving average of daily cases rise above 3000 again by the end of 2020?	Binary
-15.438	Will early 2020 AI solve at least 20% of previously unseen IQ-test like tasks?	Binary
-15.501	How much transit activity will there be in the San Francisco Bay Area in the last week of July?	Continuous
-15.840	How many active Airbnb listings will there be in London on the 1st of April of 2020?	Continuous
-16.844	Will California have a wildfire among the 10 most destructive in state history in 2020?	Binary
-17.158	Will Democrats win a majority in the senate in the 2020 elections?	Binary
-17.923	Will a US civilian intentionally be shot and killed by US military personnel acting in the line of duty on domestic soil before 2021?	Binary
-18.823	Will the average world temperature in 2020 be higher than in 2019?	Binary
-19.346	Will Trump's pants catch fire on at least five more occasions than Biden's during the month of July?	Binary
-20.698	[Short Fuse] Will Warsaw (the capital of Poland) become a red epidemic zone before the 24th of October 2020?	Binary
-24.561	By January 2021, will Consumer Confidence in the United States return to optimism?	Binary
-26.952	What destructiveness rank will LNU Lightning Complex fires reach?	Continuous
-30.105	How many judges will the US Senate confirm in 2020?	Continuous
-31.291	What will be the minimum credence Metaculites will give Trump's re-election chances in 2020?	Continuous
-33.272	How many total confirmed cases of coronavirus outside of China will be reported by Johns Hopkins CSSE on March 2nd, 2020?	Continuous
-38.472	What will Tesla's net income be in Q3 2020?	Continuous
-41.800	What will the top Android phone score be on Passmark on January 1st 2021? [12k - 24k range]	Continuous
-45.879	What will the May 2020 US nonfarm payrolls figure be?	Continuous
-46.101	Will Whole Woman's Health be overturned in 2020?	Binary
-46.485	Will more than five of the ten highest grossing films in 2020 pass the Bechdel test?	Binary
-61.298	What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for December 2020?	Continuous
-71.390	Will at least one Metaculus user report a positive test result for novel coronavirus by the end of 2020?	Binary
-81.416	How many seats will the Australian Greens Party hold in the ACT after the 2020 Territory Election?	Continuous
-133.540	Will the Doomsday clock advance closer to Midnight?	Binary