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User

Duration:10 years

Time Period:2016-25

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

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14.82		Weighted Average Score
Score	Coverage	Question	Question Type
123.352	99.9%	When will George R. R. Martin's “The Winds of Winter” be released?	Continuous
92.624	86.5%	Another hit by two Cat 4+ hurricanes in the same year?	Binary
90.868	99.7%	Will any state impose a state-wide soda tax by 2025?	Binary
75.439	70.1%	When will the first driverless cargo truck make a cross-USA trip?	Continuous
68.879	78.6%	When will the first exaflop performer appear?	Continuous
67.032	98.7%	When will the next fully autonomous car fatality occur?	Continuous
63.228	90.0%	By 2025, Will The Boring Company dig more tunnels (by length) than Trump's Mexican Border Wall?	Binary
58.932	79.8%	Will one of the verified oldest living persons in the world reach 120 years of age?	Binary
54.629	95.9%	50% Carbon-neutral electricity by 2025?	Binary
52.570	97.6%	When will Boris Johnson cease to be Prime Minister of the United Kingdom?	Continuous
49.352	99.8%	What will be the U.S. average weekly hours of all employees (total non-farm private) in October 2025?	Continuous
47.490	99.5%	When will the average ticket price in US cinemas be $10 or more?	Continuous
44.453	99.5%	How many intentionally genomic DNA altered animals will be approved for consumption by the FDA on July 31, 2025?	Continuous
42.910	99.3%	How many publicly traded U.S.- or EU-based plant-based meat producers will be valued at $1bn or more on October 4th, 2023?	Continuous
42.829	96.9%	Will someone run a marathon in less than 2 hours (per IAAF rules) by 2023?	Binary
42.337	96.4%	How much will the total U.S. plant-based foods market be worth in the year ending in April 2023, in millions of USD?	Continuous
42.276	99.6%	Will a new land speed record be set by 2025?	Binary
41.083	99.8%	How much less global warming if the US resumes participation in the Paris Agreement?	Continuous
41.072	99.8%	Qualia Research Institute Question Series: Will MDMA be approved for the treatment of PTSD by 2025?	Binary
38.558	99.8%	How many spaceflight-related fatalities will occur between January 1 2020 and January 1 2025?	Continuous
35.796	98.5%	What will the listing price of an Impossible Food's plant-based beef burger be, in a U.S.-based supermarket, in USD per kilo, in June, 2022?	Continuous
31.292	35.0%	Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party?	Continuous
31.246	99.9%	Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act before 2024?	Binary
30.251	46.5%	Assassination by autonomous weapon by 2025?	Binary
29.940	95.6%	When will the Apple car be unveiled?	Continuous
28.898	99.9%	How many billions of broiler-type chicks will hatch in the U.S., on average per year, over the 2022-2024 period?	Continuous
28.765	98.6%	When will the Indian Neutrino Observatory (INO) definitely spot its first neutrino(s)?	Continuous
28.331	99.6%	Will the US FDA grant Neuralink permission to implant a brain-machine interface device in a human before 1 January 2022?	Binary
27.422	65.7%	When will programs write programs for us?	Continuous
24.383	99.9%	Will no non-test nuclear weapons be detonated by January 1, 2024?	Binary
24.302	97.4%	What will the U.S. market for plant-based meat be worth in the year ending in April 2023?	Continuous
24.187	99.6%	Will the US per capita productivity rate of science Nobel Prizes fall below that of Germany by 2025?	Binary
23.941	99.8%	Will the incarceration rate in the US drop below 500 per 100,000 by 2022?	Binary
23.255	99.8%	When will there be at least 5 billion internet users?	Continuous
22.726	99.8%	What will be the value of the (herein described) "AI winter index" at end of 2021?	Continuous
22.704	98.6%	When will the James Webb Space Telescope be launched?	Continuous
22.504	99.5%	What percentage of Americans will be able to cover an unexpected $400 expense without selling something or borrowing money in 2020?	Continuous
22.209	99.3%	Will a scientific mission to the outer solar system be assigned to the Falcon Heavy by mid-2023?	Binary
21.879	99.6%	What will be the largest number of digits of π to have ever been computed by December 31, 2025?	Continuous
21.222	100.0%	Will someone hold their breath for more than 30 minutes before 2025?	Binary
20.145	100.0%	Will Parker Solar Probe survive its 24 loops around the sun while getting just a few million miles away from the surface of our star?	Binary
20.095	100.0%	Will the U.S. get rid of the penny by 2025?	Binary
19.571	99.9%	Before 2025, will an asteroid or comet estimated to be at least 50 meters in diameter be detected to be due to collide with Earth before 2100?	Binary
19.266	84.1%	What will the upper limit in the IPCC's ‘likely’ range of its climate sensitivity estimate be, in its 6th Assessment Report?	Continuous
18.873	100.0%	Pathogen research rejected for publication as an information hazard by 2021?	Binary
18.481	98.7%	Efficacy confirmation of a new Alzheimer's treatment protocol?	Binary
18.377	100.0%	Will the USA's Labor Force Participation Rate be lower in 2023 than in 2018?	Binary
18.083	100.0%	Will any of the 20 most valuable public companies in the United States (As of January 2019) file for bankruptcy protection before 2025?	Binary
17.309	99.4%	Will General Electric (GE) file for chapter 7 or chapter 11 bankruptcy before September 18, 2024?	Binary
17.060	96.7%	How much will the total U.S. plant-based milk market be worth in the year ending in April 2023, in millions of USD?	Continuous
16.215	85.5%	How many subscribers will Netflix have by August 2022?	Continuous
15.942	99.0%	Will there be armed conflict between racial groups in South Africa before 2023?	Binary
15.869	99.7%	When will the Flamanville EPR be finished?	Continuous
15.680	42.6%	20 more languages extinct by 2021?	Binary
15.648	43.7%	When will the US national debt reach $25 trillion?	Continuous
15.150	28.6%	by 2021, will SLAC complete an "accelerator-on-a-chip" prototype with an acceleration gradient of 1 GeV/meter?	Binary
14.422	99.5%	Will NASA's SLS launch a person to the Moon before 2024?	Binary
14.184	94.2%	Will Yang get 200k donors or more in the 2024 US presidential race?	Binary
13.895	100.0%	Will KIC 9832227 go "red nova" – observable to the naked eye on Earth – by 2024?	Binary
13.747	47.1%	Will Republicans win control of the US House of Representatives in 2022?	Binary
13.534	59.2%	Will KIC 9832227 become a nova by 2023?	Binary
13.169	99.9%	Will the United States land humans on the moon again before 2025?	Binary
13.043	96.0%	Will big ISPs bundle website access in the post-net neutrality age?	Binary
12.333	99.9%	If the US enters a recession, how many months will the economic contraction last?	Continuous
11.780	99.7%	By 2023, will there be evidence for a neurological correlate of human consciousness?	Binary
11.726	99.9%	Will the Kármán Line be changed before 2023?	Binary
11.044	99.9%	Will Russia invade or annex all or part of Belarus before 2022?	Binary
10.490	15.9%	How much Wall will, in the end, be built?	Continuous
10.048	99.2%	Will Israel be the fourth country to soft-land on the Moon?	Binary
10.025	43.9%	When will the first law concerning artificial intelligence be passed in the US?	Continuous
10.003	36.0%	To the stars! #1: Will the private investment in laser-sail extra-solar travel be matched by a comparable amount within 5 years?	Binary
9.689	99.7%	Will Medicare for all be passed if a Democrat is elected president in 2020?	Binary
9.653	99.0%	Will there be extraordinary or premature federal elections held in Germany before their next election cycle?	Binary
9.144	45.8%	Will Republicans control the US Senate after the 2022 election?	Binary
9.066	100.0%	Will the Second Amendment of the United States Constitution be amended or repealed before 2025?	Binary
8.806	99.7%	Will Moon Express have a successful harvest by 2023?	Binary
8.418	99.6%	Will Extinction Rebellion, or a splinter group, be declared a terrorist organisation by a G7 country before 2025?	Binary
8.410	100.0%	Will Angela Merkel remain chancellor after the next German federal elections?	Binary
8.401	99.6%	Will the UK housing market crash before July 2023?	Binary
8.092	96.0%	A major United States earthquake by 2023?	Binary
7.575	32.8%	Pandemic series: a significant flu pandemic by 2025?	Binary
7.339	69.1%	Will the world population grow every year from 2016 to 2025 (inclusive)?	Binary
7.017	97.7%	Will the Mars 2020 helicopter fly?	Binary
6.490	99.9%	If the James Webb Space Telescope is launched, will it succeed in transmitting cosmological data?	Binary
5.581	99.9%	Will Emmanuel Macron be re-elected President of France in 2022?	Binary
5.413	99.8%	Will the Extremely Large Telescope see first light by the end of 2024?	Binary
5.407	99.9%	Will Cuba still be a communist state in 2023?	Binary
4.419	56.7%	Out of the 25 largest U.S companies by revenue, how many will file for bankruptcy between March 2020 to March 2024?	Continuous
4.282	99.9%	Will China launch an "artificial moon" by 2025?	Binary
4.264	94.3%	Will Chinese official real GDP numbers be revised downward by at least 5% before 2023?	Binary
3.640	100.0%	Will there be a major nuclear or radiological accident before January 1, 2022?	Binary
3.513	99.8%	Will the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER) start operating by end of 2025?	Binary
3.195	13.7%	Will a member of President Trump's inner circle be sentenced to jail by 2023?	Binary
2.839	16.3%	When will the VIX index climb above 50?	Continuous
2.652	100.0%	Will lab-grown complex vital organs be used successfully in humans before 2025?	Binary
2.470	73.2%	By 2022-10-01, Will Catalonia become an independent state?	Binary
2.365	68.2%	Will Mount Rushmore be intentionally destroyed or modified before 2025?	Binary
1.069	34.4%	Pandemic series: a devastating bioterror attack by 2025?	Binary
0.405	1.6%	Pandemic series: a significant bioterror attack by 2025?	Binary
0.380	1.8%	When will Virgin Galactic's first paid flight occur?	Continuous
0.371	1.5%	Will the Brexit Party win any seats at the next UK General Election?	Binary
0.345	80.7%	Will total funding in longevity startups worldwide exceed $5bn in the year ending in November 2nd, 2020?	Binary
-0.030	55.2%	How much global photovoltaic energy generation will be deployed by end 2020?	Continuous
-0.050	99.8%	Will Turkey be a NATO member continuously until January 1, 2025?	Binary
-0.179	23.0%	When the first company reaches a $2 trillion market cap, will it be worth at least double what it was the year before?	Binary
-0.491	1.7%	Will there be 10 million autonomous cars in the US before there are 1 million in-car augmented reality users?	Binary
-1.351	86.1%	Will Tom Brady retire when his current contract is up?	Binary
-2.790	100.0%	Will there be another VEI level six (or higher) volcanic eruption on Earth before 2025?	Binary
-3.458	45.7%	Will the US unemployment rate reach 10% before 2023?	Binary
-3.751	63.7%	Bitcoin Extremes: Will the value of 1 bitcoin fall to $1,000 or less before 2025?	Binary
-3.932	88.6%	Will an AI system do credibly well on a full math SAT exam by 2025?	Binary
-4.080	73.3%	Will Roger Federer win another Grand Slam title?	Binary
-4.525	100.0%	Will Scotland leave the United Kingdom before 2025?	Binary
-4.748	52.3%	Will the world be more democratic in 2022 than in 2017?	Binary
-5.257	89.4%	Funds toward a Solar storm shield begun by 2021?	Binary
-5.723	99.9%	Will any Member State leave the Eurozone before 2025?	Binary
-5.982	77.6%	Will WeWork file for bankruptcy protection before January 1, 2025?	Binary
-8.969	99.7%	Qualia Research Institute Question Series: Will we see evidence that Piracetam is a more effective Alzheimer's treatment than Memantine by 2021?	Binary
-10.050	98.9%	What will the average global atmospheric CO₂ concentration be, over the 2020-2021 period?	Continuous
-10.603	100.0%	Will Xi Jinping keep leading China past 2022?	Binary
-10.840	91.7%	What percentage of egg-laying hens will be cage-free, in the U.S., in June 2025?	Continuous
-10.940	100.0%	How many predictions will have been made on Metaculus by the following dates? (December 31, 2023)	Continuous
-11.027	100.0%	Will Nigel Farage become Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before 2023?	Binary
-11.586	99.9%	Will United Launch Alliances's Vulcan rocket fly by 2023 (a.k.a. Will Elon Musk eat his hat with a side of mustard?)	Binary
-11.747	98.0%	Will SpaceX test-launch the BFR before 2025?	Binary
-11.964	99.8%	Will Elon Musk (eventually) lose his appeal?	Binary
-14.939	51.4%	Will the Conservative Party form the first government after the next UK general election?	Binary
-19.725	88.9%	Bitcoin Lightning Network Capacity in BTC on 2021-Aug-25	Continuous
-20.466	99.9%	Will the identity of Bitcoin's founder, Satoshi Nakamoto, be revealed to the general public by 2025?	Binary
-25.980	99.7%	When will a discernible, coordinated Bitcoin mining pool attain >=50% of the hashing power for 24-hours?	Continuous
-27.102	61.7%	Will Israel be the fourth country to soft-land a spacecraft on the Moon, if they do so before 2026?	Binary
-28.749	97.0%	What will be the ratio of fatalities to total estimated infections for COVID-19 by the end of 2020?	Continuous
-30.537	99.8%	Will the number of deaths from antibiotic-resistant infections per year double by December 31, 2025?	Binary
-37.266	84.1%	How many people will die as a result of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) before 2021?	Continuous
-72.148	99.9%	Will World GDP grow every year until 2025?	Binary
-98.357	93.2%	Will a S&P500 tech boom surpass the dotcom bubble for one quarter or more before 2025?	Binary
-109.291	99.7%	When will 1 Terabyte MicroSD cards fall below $100USD?	Continuous