tetraspace

User

Duration:2 years

Time Period:2018 - 2019

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

5.247	Weighted Average Score
Score	Question	Question Type
42.156	Will 2019 be the warmest year on record?	Binary
33.572	Will the James Webb Telescope Launch prior to 2020?	Binary
26.737	When will President Trump's current (Dec 2018) government shutdown end?	Continuous
26.320	Will the Trump Adminstration succeed in creating a "Space Force" before the 2020 presidential election?	Binary
23.349	By the end of 2019 will a gene drive targeting malaria be initiated?	Binary
16.376	Will the UK leave the EU by the end of June 2020?	Binary
14.320	Will Louis C.K. release a stand-up special before 2021?	Binary
13.269	When will Leela Zero or some other self-learning chess engine win the world computer chess title?	Continuous
12.939	Will Benoit Lecomte successfully swim across the Pacific Ocean?	Binary
10.182	Will the VIX Index print above 50 in 2019?	Binary
10.122	Will Planet Nine be Discovered by mid-2019?	Binary
8.480	Evidence for anomalies in neutrino oscillations to grow or fade away?	Continuous
8.200	How many predictions will have been made on Metaculus by the following dates? (December 18, 2019)	Continuous
8.052	Will Jordan Peterson endorse Maxime Bernier as Canada's next Prime Minister ahead of the 2019 Canadian federal election?	Binary
7.574	Will Boris Johnson become Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before 30 March 2020?	Binary
6.154	Will SpaceX's Starlink start deployment by 2021?	Binary
4.320	What will be the price of a Bitcoin in USD on December 1, 2019?	Continuous
2.698	Will the 2019 Eurovision Song Contest be won by an EU member?	Binary
2.668	Will California abolish daylight savings time by 2020?	Binary
2.620	Would a Democratically controlled House impeach President Trump before the 2020 elections?	Binary
2.351	Will Mark Zuckerberg be CEO of Facebook, Inc. on March 1st 2019?	Binary
2.327	Will the U.S. enter a recession by July 1, 2019?	Binary
2.228	Will the EU Parliament election 2019 be free from any unlawful and significant election manipulation attempt?	Binary
2.184	Will Tesla go private prior to 2020?	Binary
1.537	Will there be another 'in-out' referendum on Brexit before 29th March 2019?	Binary
1.429	How many seats will the EPP get for the EU Parliament election, 2019?	Continuous
1.385	Will a citizen of the People's Republic of China be declared a 2019 Nobel Prize winner?	Binary
0.596	Will 2019 see the smallest extent of Arctic Sea ice in recorded history?	Binary
0.059	What will be the voter turnout in the European Parliament election 2019?	Continuous
-0.186	Will the US enter a recession by Jan 1, 2020?	Binary
-1.885	Will AncestryDNA have 20 million people in their database before July 1st 2019?	Binary
-2.372	How many seats will the S&D get for the EU Parliament election, 2019?	Continuous
-3.078	Will Daenerys Targaryen die in season eight of Game of Thrones?	Binary
-4.334	Will Queen Elizabeth II still be the reigning monarch of the United Kingdom in 2020?	Binary
-8.434	What will the community average log-score be after the 500th question?	Continuous
-64.024	Will the DJIA hit 25,000 before it next touches 20,000?	Binary