98.831 | Will 2019 be the warmest year on record? | Binary |
48.284 | How many predictions will have been made on Metaculus by the following dates? (December 18, 2019) | Continuous |
46.355 | Would a Democratically controlled House impeach President Trump before the 2020 elections? | Binary |
40.626 | Will the DJIA hit 25,000 before it next touches 20,000? | Binary |
40.218 | Which percentage of Metaculus questions resolving in Q1 2019 will resolve positively? | Continuous |
38.814 | Will the James Webb Telescope Launch prior to 2020? | Binary |
33.995 | Will Daenerys Targaryen die in season eight of Game of Thrones? | Binary |
33.184 | Will the US-China trade war escalate after the initial truce period ending 24 February 2019? | Binary |
32.519 | What will be the price of a Bitcoin in USD on December 1, 2019? | Continuous |
31.682 | Will Tesla go private prior to 2020? | Binary |
31.175 | Will the Trump Adminstration succeed in creating a "Space Force" before the 2020 presidential election? | Binary |
31.088 | What will the community average log-score be after the 500th question? | Continuous |
29.470 | When will Leela Zero or some other self-learning chess engine win the world computer chess title? | Continuous |
26.597 | Will the US enter a recession by Jan 1, 2020? | Binary |
23.241 | If Metaculus creates a Patreon account, how much will be pledged after 2 months? | Continuous |
23.010 | Will the VIX Index print above 50 in 2019? | Binary |
22.545 | Will the EU Parliament election 2019 be free from any unlawful and significant election manipulation attempt? | Binary |
21.175 | Will SpaceX's Starlink start deployment by 2021? | Binary |
20.878 | Will 2019 see the smallest extent of Arctic Sea ice in recorded history? | Binary |
19.922 | Will Fulham be relegated from the English Premier League? | Binary |
18.915 | How many seats will the EPP get for the EU Parliament election, 2019? | Continuous |
18.594 | Will AncestryDNA have 20 million people in their database before July 1st 2019? | Binary |
16.127 | Will a citizen of the People's Republic of China be declared a 2019 Nobel Prize winner? | Binary |
15.081 | Will there be another terrorist attack causing more than 25 deaths in the United States before 2020? | Binary |
14.780 | Will Tesla deliver first $35,000 Model 3 in 2019? | Binary |
13.245 | What will Bitcoin's hash rate be in November 2019? | Continuous |
12.810 | Evidence for anomalies in neutrino oscillations to grow or fade away? | Continuous |
12.401 | Will the current coalition (i.e. EPP, S&D, and ALDE) continue after the EU Parliament election, 2019? | Binary |
11.781 | Will the UK leave the EU by the end of June 2020? | Binary |
11.450 | Will North Korea launch an intercontinental ballistic missile in 2019? | Binary |
10.932 | Will a "sex doll brothel" open in the US before August 1st 2019? | Binary |
10.338 | Will the U.S. enter a recession by July 1, 2019? | Binary |
9.543 | Will Donald Trump have a 50% approval rating at some point before the end of 2019? | Binary |
9.457 | Will Boris Johnson become Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before 30 March 2020? | Binary |
9.144 | Will Jordan Peterson endorse Maxime Bernier as Canada's next Prime Minister ahead of the 2019 Canadian federal election? | Binary |
7.603 | Will Louis C.K. release a stand-up special before 2021? | Binary |
6.331 | Will a nuclear device with a yield above 1kt be detonated anywhere on Earth in 2019? | Binary |
6.256 | How many seats will the S&D get for the EU Parliament election, 2019? | Continuous |
5.098 | Will genetic data from a new Denisova hominin be published in the first 6 months of 2019? | Binary |
4.462 | When will President Trump's current (Dec 2018) government shutdown end? | Continuous |
3.672 | Will Australia elect Bill Shorten as Prime Minister in 2019? | Binary |
3.325 | Will Benoit Lecomte successfully swim across the Pacific Ocean? | Binary |
3.257 | Will Jeremy Corbyn become Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before 2020? | Binary |
1.940 | Will there be another 'in-out' referendum on Brexit before 29th March 2019? | Binary |
1.870 | Will Facebook's share price be lower in 3 months than it is today? | Binary |
1.730 | Will Queen Elizabeth II still be the reigning monarch of the United Kingdom in 2020? | Binary |
0.840 | Will Tesla go bankrupt by 2020? | Binary |
0.477 | British Pound / US Dollar parity before 2020? | Binary |
0.122 | Will the 2019 Eurovision Song Contest be won by an EU member? | Binary |
-1.004 | Will Planet Nine be Discovered by mid-2019? | Binary |
-1.931 | By the end of 2019 will a gene drive targeting malaria be initiated? | Binary |
-2.043 | Will Mark Zuckerberg be CEO of Facebook, Inc. on March 1st 2019? | Binary |
-2.693 | Will California abolish daylight savings time by 2020? | Binary |
-2.920 | Will the INF treaty functionally continue past 2025? | Binary |
-5.190 | Will the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) bite a big company? | Binary |
-6.413 | How many seats will the various eurosceptic groups collectively achieve for the EU Parliament election, 2019? | Continuous |
-9.268 | Attempted crewed SpaceX flight prior to 2020? | Binary |
-102.971 | What will be the voter turnout in the European Parliament election 2019? | Continuous |