datscilly

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2020

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

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19.03	Weighted Average Score
Score	Question	Question Type
155.516	Will at least one Metaculus user report a positive test result for novel coronavirus by the end of 2020?	Binary
123.464	What will be the peak unemployment rate in the United States for calendar year 2020?	Continuous
123.200	Which value will Metaculus least predict?	Continuous
102.999	What will be the Industrial Production Index number for December 2020?	Continuous
102.938	What will the US Q3 2020 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
92.786	Which month of 2020 will see the biggest global increase of COVID-19 cases?	Continuous
92.132	How much transit activity will there be in the San Francisco Bay Area in the last week of September?	Continuous
88.827	How many US state governors, members of the Supreme Court, and members of Congress will die from COVID-19 in 2020?	Continuous
82.495	When will the second US presidential debate take place?	Continuous
81.777	Will there be a terrorist attack in an OECD founding member state causing more than 3 deaths between November 3rd 2020 and up until March 1st 2021?	Binary
81.090	What will be the S&P 500 end-of-day low in 2020?	Continuous
73.601	How many successful faithless electoral votes will there be in the 2020 election?	Continuous
72.890	CPI-U for October 2020	Continuous
70.384	How many post-suspension games will be played in the resumed 2019-2020 NBA regular season?	Continuous
68.466	How many cyberattacks by Iran against US Govt. systems in Q1 2020?	Continuous
68.463	How much transit activity will there be in the San Francisco Bay Area in the last week of August?	Continuous
68.301	[closed] How many human infections of the 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) will be estimated to occur before 2021?	Continuous
66.226	How many named tropical storms will there be in the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season?	Continuous
65.782	How many COVID-2019 cases in Europe will be confirmed on April the 27th?	Continuous
65.117	How many COVID-2019 cases will be confirmed in the location with the most cases outside of Mainland China on March the 27th?	Continuous
64.726	Will there be at least 10 fatalites caused in post-election political violence in the United States?	Binary
64.717	What will the magnitude of most severe earthquake to strike California in 2020 be?	Continuous
64.329	How many YouTube views will Despacito have on January 12, 2021?	Continuous
64.319	What destructiveness rank will LNU Lightning Complex fires reach?	Continuous
61.629	Will the WHO or North Korean Government confirm any COVID-19 cases in North Korea by 2020-05-17?	Binary
59.185	What will be the doubling time of COVID-19 cases during the peak growth period in 2020?	Continuous
57.735	CPI-U for September 2020	Continuous
56.551	How many total COVID-2019 cases in the USA will be confirmed on April the 27th?	Continuous
55.875	What will be the 5-week average of initial jobless claims filed in December?	Continuous
54.338	How many months of 2020 will be declared "earth's warmest on record" by NOAA?	Continuous
53.556	Will polling in the US presidential election miss the true results by 3 percentage points or more?	Binary
53.136	What will Tesla's market capitalization be on 1 January 2021?	Continuous
53.047	How much transit activity will there be in the San Francisco Bay Area in the last week of July?	Continuous
52.960	What percentage of US voters will support the Black Lives Matter movement on election day 2020?	Continuous
51.895	How many more Starship prototypes will be destroyed before one flies?	Continuous
51.673	Will Donald Trump tweet that Bernie Sanders is a communist before the 2020 election?	Binary
51.246	What will the Metaculus community average log score be for COVID-19 related questions on 20 Jan 2021?	Continuous
51.107	What proportion of Senate Democratic incumbents will be defeated in the 2020 election?	Continuous
50.816	How much transit activity will there be in New York City in the last week of September?	Continuous
50.008	What will the April 2020 US nonfarm payrolls figure be?	Continuous
49.259	What will the mean level of transit activity be in the city of Dallas, Texas for the week 2020-12-20 through 2020-12-26?	Continuous
48.227	How many total games will be played in the MLB 2020-2021 regular season?	Continuous
48.178	EIA Petroleum Status Report - October 2020	Continuous
48.083	LRT 1.6: When will the daily number of new hospital admissions for COVID-19 illness in New York City drop below 200 for the first time since mid-March?	Continuous
48.027	Will Democrats win both halves of Congress + Presidency in the US 2020 Election?	Binary
47.403	Will Trump's pants catch fire on at least five more occasions than Biden's during the month of July?	Binary
45.930	Total Retail Sales in September 2020	Continuous
45.330	Will the S&P 500 close higher for 2020?	Binary
44.379	Will Trumps Rally in Phoenix at the Dream City Church result in a spike of COVID-19 infections?	Binary
44.279	What will Washington state’s Department of Revenue report as the 2020 Q1 gross business income?	Continuous
43.384	Will the CZU Lightning Complex be ranked ahead of the LNU Lightning Complex on the destructiveness list once both are extinguished?	Binary
42.966	On January 1st, 2021, will Americans' opposition to Black Lives Matter be higher than 40%?	Binary
42.655	What proportion of novel coronavirus infections outside China by March 27 will be due to exposure in China?	Continuous
42.435	What proportion of House Republican incumbents will be defeated in the 2020 election?	Continuous
42.195	Will 3Blue1Brown begin a new video series in the month of July?	Binary
42.015	Will Beyond Meat outperform the the general U.S. stock market in 2020?	Binary
41.699	How many initial jobless claims will be filed on average in September 2020?	Continuous
41.612	What will be the US unemployment rate for March 2020?	Continuous
39.789	How much higher will the annual mean surface air temperature be in 2020, relative to the 1951-1980 base period?	Continuous
39.074	[Short Fuse] When will the global Garmin system outage be resolved?	Continuous
38.903	How many COVID-2019 cases in South Korea will be confirmed on March the 27th?	Continuous
38.439	What will the mean level of transit activity be in San Francisco — Bay Area for the week 2020-12-20 through 2020-12-26?	Continuous
37.752	What will the October 2020 US nonfarm payrolls figure be?	Continuous
37.633	What will be the minimum credence Metaculites will give Trump's re-election chances in 2020?	Continuous
37.301	How many COVID-2019 cases in the United Kingdom will be confirmed on March the 27th?	Continuous
36.047	How many total confirmed cases of novel coronavirus will be reported in the WHO Western Pacific Region, outside of China and Taiwan, by March 27?	Continuous
35.715	How many (cumulative) total confirmed cases of COVID-2019 will be reported in the United Kingdom on April the 27th?	Continuous
35.679	How many contests will Bernie Sanders win in the 2020 Democratic Primaries?	Continuous
35.541	By how many votes will the losing party fall short of winning control of the Senate in the 2020 Senate elections?	Continuous
35.518	How many COVID-2019 cases will be confirmed in the location with the most cases outside of China on April the 27th?	Continuous
34.219	How many judges will the US Senate confirm in 2020?	Continuous
34.131	Will global carbon emissions in 2020 be higher than they were in 2019?	Binary
34.120	LRT 2.3.4: Will total newly reported deaths in the U.S. first fall below 5,000 on the 7-day period ending on June 13th or the 7-day period ending on June 20th?	Binary
34.068	Will Whole Woman's Health be overturned in 2020?	Binary
33.975	What will be the 5-week average of initial jobless claims filed in October?	Continuous
33.913	Will the US see widespread rioting in 2020?	Binary
33.658	When will the next justice be confirmed to the Supreme Court of the United States?	Continuous
33.365	What will the mean level of transit activity be in New York City for the week 2020-10-25 through 2020-10-31?	Continuous
32.154	What will the mean level of transit activity be in New York City for the week 2020-12-20 through 2020-12-26?	Continuous
31.646	What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for November 2020?	Continuous
31.478	What will the top CPU score be on Passmark on January 1st 2021?	Continuous
31.431	What will voter turnout be for the US 2020 presidential election?	Continuous
31.116	LRT 2.1: What is the number of total confirmed cases in the US that COVID Tracker will have in the daily report this coming Sunday, May 3rd?	Continuous
30.439	How many total confirmed cases of novel coronavirus will be reported in the WHO European region by March 27?	Continuous
30.307	What will the US employment to population ratio be in May 2020?	Continuous
29.837	How many geoengineering-related papers will be published in the year 2020?	Continuous
29.682	Will American Airlines file for bankruptcy protection before 2021?	Binary
29.542	Will the CDC issue a Level 3 Travel Health Notice for France by May 1?	Binary
29.420	EIA Petroleum Status Report - September 2020	Continuous
28.614	What will the Seattle Police Department report as the total number of criminal offenses in March 2020?	Continuous
28.136	In the 2020 US Presidential election, when will the losing candidate concede?	Continuous
28.039	Will Prediction Markets judge the Democratic primary to be settled after Super Tuesday?	Binary
27.779	What will the mean level of transit activity be in the city of Dallas, Texas for the week 2020-11-22 through 2020-11-28?	Continuous
27.721	By January 2021, will Consumer Confidence in the United States return to optimism?	Binary
27.702	How many total confirmed cases of coronavirus will be reported by Johns Hopkin's CSSE on February 3rd?	Continuous
27.502	How many total confirmed cases of coronavirus will be reported by Johns Hopkin's CSSE on March 2nd, 2020?	Continuous
27.477	On 1 January 2021, will the rate of new confirmed deaths per million from COVID-19 in Sweden be higher than Denmark?	Binary
27.461	What will the September 2020 US nonfarm payrolls figure be?	Continuous
27.272	Total Retail Sales in October 2020	Continuous
26.966	Will the US see a massive riot in 2020?	Binary
26.904	What will be the popular vote difference in 2020 between the Republican candidate and the highest polling alternative candidate?	Continuous
26.296	On May 1st, what percentage of Americans will be "very worried" that they, someone in their family or someone else they know will become infected with the coronavirus?	Continuous
25.969	Before December 25th, 2020, will cumulative confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the United States exceed 12 million?	Binary
25.787	How much transit activity will there be in New York City in the last week of August?	Continuous
25.626	How many COVID-19 cases in the Netherlands will be confirmed on April the 27th?	Continuous
25.555	In second edition of the Animal Protection Index how many countries will be listed with B or A grades on the indicator for "Formal Recognition of Animal Sentience"?	Continuous
24.997	[Short-fuse] Will Donald Trump's Tulsa Oklahoma rally on June 20 result in a spike of COVID-19 cases?	Binary
24.987	What will the Brent Crude oil closing price be on December 31 2020?	Continuous
24.506	How many people will die due to Ebola infection as a result of the Équateur Province Ebola outbreak before January 1 2021?	Continuous
24.473	If Trump is not re-elected President, what will the value of the S&P 500 be on January 1, 2021?	Continuous
24.357	How many total confirmed cases of novel coronavirus will be reported in the WHO East Mediterranean region by March 27?	Continuous
24.038	What will the mean level of transit activity be in Phoenix for the week 2020-12-20 through 2020-12-26?	Continuous
23.824	What percentage of seats will Labour hold after the 2020 New Zealand general election?	Continuous
23.415	Will there be a "no-deal" Brexit at the end of 2020?	Binary
23.174	How many total confirmed cases of novel coronavirus will be reported in the WHO Region of the Americas by March 27?	Continuous
23.164	Will a general election be held in Mali before 2021?	Binary
22.911	Will at least 9 of the 12 states hit hardest by COVID-19 in 2020 be states that voted for Trump in 2016?	Binary
22.614	On May 1st, what percentage of Americans will be "very worried" about the coronavirus’s effect on the U.S. economy?	Continuous
22.493	If he runs, how many votes will Kanye West win in the 2020 US presidential election?	Continuous
22.358	How many predictions will have been made on Metaculus by the following dates? (December 18, 2020)	Continuous
22.304	Will at least 1 million COVID-19 deaths be reported in any single calendar month in 2020?	Binary
22.152	What will Toyota Motor Corporation (TM)'s market capitalisation be on January 1st 2021 in billions of US$?	Continuous
22.047	Will the New START nuclear arms control agreement be extended or replaced by its expiration on February 5th 2021?	Binary
21.999	What will Tesla's GAAP net income be in Q4 2020?	Continuous
21.590	How many ratings will Toby Ord's book The Precipice have on Amazon on January 1st 2021?	Continuous
21.404	Will either Joe Biden or Donald Trump concede in the 2020 US presidential elections by November 17th?	Binary
20.889	Will a TikTok user hit 100m followers by the end of 2020?	Binary
20.820	Will Israel annex the Jordan Valley in the West Bank by the end of 2020?	Binary
20.810	What will Tesla's net income be in Q3 2020?	Continuous
20.594	Will the UK government change its guidance to recommend face coverings in schools before they close?	Binary
20.336	What will the total retail sales including food services be for November 2020?	Continuous
20.332	How many total confirmed cases of coronavirus will be reported by Johns Hopkins CSSE on February the 17th?	Continuous
20.307	What will the top GPU score be on Passmark on January 1st 2021?	Continuous
19.671	What will the mean level of transit activity be in Phoenix for the week 2020-11-22 through 2020-11-28?	Continuous
19.279	Will the CDC issue a Level 3 Travel Health Notice for Thailand by May 1?	Binary
19.124	What will Virtu's Q3 2020 trading income be?	Continuous
18.876	How much transit activity will there be in New York City in the last week of July?	Continuous
18.837	What will the US Q2 2020 GDP growth rate be, according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
18.677	LRT 2.3.5: Will total newly weekly reported deaths in the U.S. first fall below 5,000 on or after June 20th?	Binary
18.676	[Short-Fuse] Will the NBA playoffs finish as planned?	Binary
18.176	Will US forces shoot unarmed protesters in 2020?	Binary
18.106	When will a language model meet or exceed the human baseline on SuperGLUE?	Continuous
17.970	Will Keir Starmer win the 2020 Labour leadership contest?	Binary
17.812	Will remdesivir be administered to at least 50,000 patients with SARS-CoV-2 infections in the US, UK, EU member states, and Japan, by the end of 2020?	Binary
17.488	Will J.K. Rowling’s “The Ickabog” reach #1 on Amazon.co.uk’s bestseller list within a week of its release?	Binary
17.319	What will the LBMA Gold price be in US dollars on December 31 2020?	Continuous
17.286	[Short Fuse]: Will Joe Biden announce Kamala Harris as his running mate in the 2020 presidential election before August 20 2020?	Binary
17.145	Will a major metropolitan area in the US, EU, or the UK experience a food shortage due to COVID-19 before June 6th, 2020?	Binary
16.516	How many paid memberships will Netflix have worldwide on December 31st 2020?	Continuous
16.515	Will Iran deploy no Zafar communications satellite by 2021?	Binary
16.427	Will most UK schools reopen in time for the 2020-2021 academic year?	Binary
16.274	When will the SpaceX Demo-2 launch?	Continuous
16.170	How many posts will there be on the Effective Altruism Forum in 2020?	Continuous
15.975	How long will it take to listen to every episode of the 80,000 Hours Podcast released in 2020?	Continuous
15.715	What fraction of US Congress seats will be held by people of color following the election on November 3, 2020?	Continuous
15.711	What fraction of the US Congress will be held by women following the election on November 3, 2020?	Continuous
15.643	Will a major US website crash due to internet traffic in April?	Binary
15.522	What proportion of Senate Republican incumbents will be defeated in the 2020 election?	Continuous
15.414	Will the average world temperature in 2020 be higher than in 2019?	Binary
15.154	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in November?	Continuous
15.009	Will the US federal government shut down all non-essential services by 2020-04-19?	Binary
14.955	LRT 1.4: As of Saturday May 9, 2020, how many COVID-19 related deaths will have occurred in Louisiana?	Continuous
14.819	For how many countries will the CDC issue a Level 3 Travel Health Notice by May 15, due to the novel coronavirus?	Continuous
14.652	Will all major 2020 US presidential candidates survive the COVID-19 epidemic?	Binary
14.392	If president Trump loses the 2020 election, will he concede?	Binary
14.142	Will Harvard University open classes on September 2, 2020?	Binary
14.119	What proportion of House Democratic incumbents will be defeated in the 2020 election?	Continuous
14.115	How many infections of COVID-19 confirmed by testing will be reported before 2021?	Continuous
13.994	When will @JoeBiden reach 10% as many Twitter followers as @realdonaldtrump?	Continuous
13.964	Will Kim Jong-un be officially confirmed dead before May 15 2020?	Binary
13.884	How many new cases of COVID-19 in the 4th quarter of 2020?	Continuous
13.719	Will an Aerospike (finally) Fly?	Binary
13.554	What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for December 2020?	Continuous
13.425	Will 538 outperform The Economist forecasting the 2020 Presidential Election?	Binary
13.399	Will the Democrats hold the US House of Representatives in the 2020 Election?	Binary
13.356	Before 2020-05-17, will at least two public health agencies claim that China deliberately misreported COVID-19 infections?	Binary
13.246	How many Electoral College votes will the Democratic Party nominee win in the 2020 presidential election?	Continuous
13.024	What will the August 2020 US nonfarm payrolls figure be?	Continuous
12.381	What will US dining activity be in August 2020?	Continuous
12.255	Will California Senate Bill 902 be chaptered in the 2020 legislative session?	Binary
12.125	What will the mean level of transit activity be in San Francisco — Bay Area for the week 2020-10-25 through 2020-10-31?	Continuous
11.983	How much transit activity will there be in the San Francisco Bay Area in the last week of June?	Continuous
11.877	Will a US civilian intentionally be shot and killed by US military personnel acting in the line of duty on domestic soil before 2021?	Binary
11.818	LRT 2.4: What will the average number of new daily confirmed cases be, over the period from 10th, till May 16th, in the state of Georgia?	Continuous
11.459	What will be the US unemployment rate for April 2020?	Continuous
11.400	When will the suspension of incoming travel to the US from the Schengen area be terminated?	Continuous
11.347	LRT 1.2: As of Saturday May 9, 2020, how many COVID-19 related deaths will have occurred in the US?	Continuous
11.311	How many new cases of COVID-19 in the 2nd quarter of 2020?	Continuous
11.190	[Short Fuse] Will Gladys Berejiklian cease to be Premier of NSW by 1 December 2020?	Binary
11.124	Will California pass Proposition 22 to classify app-based drivers as independent contractors?	Binary
11.006	Will the median prediction on this question fall in range [1-48]% OR [95-99]%?	Binary
10.936	If Trump loses the election in 2020, will he maintain that he is still the president on January 21st 2021?	Binary
10.820	Will facial recognition be banned in at least 3 more U.S. cities in 2020?	Binary
10.760	What will the quarter-on-quarter US Q1 2020 GDP growth rate be, according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
10.729	Will George W. Bush endorse Joe Biden in the 2020 presidential election?	Binary
10.533	What will the mean level of transit activity be in Phoenix for the week 2020-10-25 through 2020-10-31?	Continuous
10.404	How many new cases of COVID-19 in the 3rd quarter of 2020?	Continuous
10.342	What will be the difference in July 2020 performance between the HFR Women Index and the HFR 500 Fund-Weighted Composite Index?	Continuous
10.322	Will Ghislaine Maxwell be alive on 1 January 2021?	Binary
10.043	Have we permanently lost contact with ASTERIA?	Binary
10.037	Will a major network call the election prematurely?	Binary
10.009	How much transit activity will there be in New York City in the last week of June?	Continuous
9.986	Will 2020’s UK Christmas #1 be a joke?	Binary
9.986	What will the mean level of transit activity be in New York City for the week 2020-11-22 through 2020-11-28?	Continuous
9.550	How many active Airbnb listings will there be in Paris on the 1st of April of 2020?	Continuous
9.518	How many total confirmed cases of coronavirus outside of China will be reported by Johns Hopkins CSSE on March 2nd, 2020?	Continuous
9.448	Will Wayne Hsiung be elected mayor of Berkeley in 2020?	Binary
9.402	How many scientific journals will use Registered Reports at the end of 2020?	Continuous
9.165	Will the S&P 500 close higher in 2020 than 2019?	Binary
9.147	Will the first post from Instagram’s official account @instagram after this question closes be a photograph or video of an instagram user?	Binary
9.140	Will the border conflict between India and China escalate to a deadly clash involving gunfire or explosives before 2021?	Binary
8.992	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for December 2020	Continuous
8.948	In the year 2020, will no gene drive be launched to fight malaria-carrying mosquitoes in any part of the world?	Binary
8.940	Will Netanyahu remain Israeli's Prime Minister till the end of 2020?	Binary
8.589	Will UK schools close before the Christmas Holiday?	Binary
8.520	LRT 2.3.3: Will total newly reported deaths in the U.S. first fall below 5,000 on the 7-day period ending on May 30th or the 7-day period ending on June 6th?	Binary
8.517	Will proposition 16 be passed in the 2020 California election?	Binary
8.390	What will US dining activity be in September 2020?	Continuous
8.375	When will the total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases reach 1 million?	Continuous
8.092	How many total confirmed cases of novel coronavirus will be reported in the WHO African region by March 27?	Continuous
8.055	Will any states flip from the current projected winner?	Binary
7.977	Will Biden drop by at least 5 percentage points in the polls after the first debate?	Binary
7.940	Will Punxsutawney Phil's prediction of an early spring come true in 2020?	Binary
7.916	Will a vaccine targeted at the 2019 novel coronavirus (Covid-19) be administered to at least 10,000 people in 2020?	Binary
7.814	Will there be a US-Iran war in 2020?	Binary
7.763	Will (at least one) magnitude 6.0 or greater earthquake strike California in 2020?	Binary
7.763	Will Democrats win a majority in the senate in the 2020 elections?	Binary
7.684	What will the total retail sales including food services be for December 2020?	Continuous
7.575	Will Boris Johnson recover from COVID-19?	Binary
7.268	Will the Emergency Telework Act (S.3561) become law by 4/25/20?	Binary
7.220	Will the S&P 500 Index end 2020 higher?	Binary
7.100	How many structures will be destroyed by wildfires in California in 2020?	Continuous
6.986	Will there be deadly conflict in the South China Sea in 2020?	Binary
6.900	By March 1st, 2021, will Israel and Saudi Arabia announce a peace or normalization agreement?	Binary
6.844	Will Apple's market cap drop below $1 trillion before 1 February 2021?	Binary
6.610	Will the artist who performs 2020’s UK Christmas #1 be the winner of a reality television show?	Binary
6.506	Will President Trump be relieved of his duties under section four of the Twenty-fifth Amendment before election day?	Binary
6.341	What will the May 2020 US nonfarm payrolls figure be?	Continuous
6.250	Will Apple announce plans to make ARM-based Mac at WWDC 2020?	Binary
6.033	Will the #NoFees4Charity campaign succeed?	Binary
5.960	Will the Chinese police or military intervene in Hong Kong before Summer 2020?	Binary
5.847	How many active Airbnb listings will there be in London on the 1st of April of 2020?	Continuous
5.804	[Short fuse]: Will Tesla's stock price close below $1,000 per share before 2021?	Binary
5.800	What will be the Industrial Production Index number for November 2020?	Continuous
5.778	What will the mean level of transit activity be in San Francisco — Bay Area for the week 2020-11-22 through 2020-11-28?	Continuous
5.639	Will Joe Biden be the Democratic Party nominee for president of the United States on election day 2020?	Binary
5.624	Will Elon Musk's baby's name, X Æ A - 12, turn out to be his real name?	Binary
5.571	How many active Airbnb listings will there be in Beijing on the 1st of April of 2020?	Continuous
5.529	Will Donald Trump's first term end before the next supreme court appointment?	Binary
5.466	Will a woman be the Democratic candidate for Vice-President of the USA in 2020?	Binary
5.400	What will be the US U-6 unemployment rate for May 2020?	Continuous
5.297	Will the US hold mass-turnout elections for President on schedule in 2020?	Binary
5.148	How many cumulative confirmed cases of coronavirus in the entire Bay Area will be reported by Johns Hopkins CSSE on April 1st, 2020?	Continuous
5.137	Will the “unknown pneumonia” outbreak in Kazakhstan turn out to be caused by a pathogen other than Covid-19?	Binary
5.039	Will the 25th amendment of the US constitution be invoked before November 3rd?	Binary
5.017	What proportion of 2020 U.S. House of Representatives elections without a running incumbent will be won by Republicans?	Continuous
4.924	Will there be an authentic leaked tape that costs Trump major public support in 2020?	Binary
4.862	Will North Korea launch an intercontinental ballistic missile between November 3rd 2020 and March 1st 2021?	Binary
4.778	Will a third-party candidate get more than 5% of the popular vote in the 2020 US Presidential Election?	Binary
4.336	Will 2020 be the warmest year on record?	Binary
4.219	Will Trump transfer presidential power to VP Mike Pence under section 3 of the Twenty-fifth Amendment before election day?	Binary
4.091	How many consumer electric vehicles will Tesla sell (units delivered) in 2020?	Continuous
3.989	Will North Korea launch an intercontinental ballistic missile in 2020?	Binary
3.900	Will Trump drop by at least 5 percentage points in the polls after the first debate?	Binary
3.661	LRT 2.3.2: Will total newly reported deaths in the U.S. first fall below 5,000 on the 7-day period ending on May 16th or the 7-day period ending on May 23?	Binary
3.315	Will Three Gorges Dam collapse and kill at least 10,000 people in 2020?	Binary
3.126	Will a RNA SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate be approved for use in the United States or European Union before 2022?	Binary
3.014	How many total confirmed cases of novel coronavirus will be reported in the WHO South-East Asia Region by March 27?	Continuous
3.001	How much karma will the top LessWrong post in 2020 have?	Continuous
2.791	Will Francisco Partners / Evergreen complete its acquisition of LogMeIn (LOGM) before June 01, 2020?	Binary
2.774	Will the next winner of the Booker Prize be female?	Binary
2.624	Will any state send multiple certificates of electors following the 2020 election?	Binary
2.622	[Short-Fuse] Will AbstractSpyTreeBot win the Darwin Game on Lesswrong?	Binary
2.552	Will early 2020 AI solve at least 20% of previously unseen IQ-test like tasks?	Binary
2.433	How many cumulative confirmed cases of coronavirus in San Francisco will be reported by Johns Hopkins CSSE on April 1st, 2020?	Continuous
2.422	Will more than five of the ten highest grossing films in 2020 pass the Bechdel test?	Binary
2.372	Will proposition 21 be passed in the 2020 California election?	Binary
2.171	Will Stefan Molyneux receive a long-term Twitter ban before 2021?	Binary
2.049	[Short Fuse] Will the UK's Intelligence and Security committee publish the report into Russian interference by the end of July?	Binary
1.352	Will 538 outperform PredictIt forecasting the 2020 Presidential Elections?	Binary
1.350	Will another location overtake Hubei as the location of the largest COVID-19 outbreak before 2021?	Binary
1.325	[Short Fuse] Will the Three Gorges Dam experience a partial failure before the end of September?	Binary
1.245	Will Joe Biden and Donald Trump participate in a 2020 presidential debate against each other?	Binary
1.160	[Short Fuse] Will Amy Coney Barrett be confirmed to the Supreme Court before election day 2020?	Binary
1.144	Will the 2020 Tokyo Olympics be cancelled due to COVID-19?	Binary
1.078	Will JHU CSSE's COVID-19 dashboard remain open and maintained through 2020-12-31?	Binary
1.044	Will China Oceanwide Holdings Group Co., Ltd. complete an acquisition of Genworth (GNW) before July 1, 2020?	Binary
0.975	Did UNCW professor Mike Adams die by suicide?	Binary
0.865	How will Trump's popular vote share compare to FiveThirtyEight's prediction?	Continuous
0.852	Will at least 200,000 COVID-19 deaths be reported in any single calendar month in 2020?	Binary
0.732	Will EA Global London 2020 be cancelled or rescheduled due to COVID-19?	Binary
0.713	Will at least 500 Indians die in clashes along the border with the Chinese military before 2021?	Binary
0.609	Will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT be administered to 10M people by March 1st 2021?	Binary
0.555	Will New York State's 14 day moving average of daily cases rise above 3000 again by the end of 2020?	Binary
0.473	Will China fail to curtail its internment camps programs for Uyghurs and Muslims in 2020?	Binary
0.315	What percent of ballots casting votes on Oregon's Psilocybin Program Initiative will vote in favor?	Continuous
0.302	Will the border conflict between India and China result in a death before 2021?	Binary
0.159	Will at least 10,000 COVID-19 deaths be reported in any single calendar month in 2020?	Binary
0.127	Will Brexit (finally) happen in 2020?	Binary
-0.170	Will the University of Cambridge suspend in-person classes for its 2020 Easter term?	Binary
-0.419	How much will the SENS research foundation raise in their 2020 end of year fundraiser?	Continuous
-0.453	Will the GOP hold the Senate on January 3rd 2021?	Binary
-0.699	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U % change from October (less energy and food) in November 2020?	Continuous
-0.960	Industrial Production Index in September 2020	Continuous
-1.049	What will (seasonally-adjusted, annualized) unemployment insurance payments be in 2020 Q4?	Continuous
-2.034	Will at least 100,000 COVID-19 deaths be reported in any single calendar month in 2020?	Binary
-2.213	Will Amazon ($AMZN) make a public offer to acquire FedEx ($FDX) by June 30, 2020?	Binary
-2.242	US invades and attempts a regime change in Iran in 2020?	Binary
-2.639	Will the Doomsday clock advance closer to Midnight?	Binary
-2.664	Will California Assembly Bill 3155 be chaptered in the 2020 legislative session?	Binary
-2.685	LRT 2.3.1: Will total newly reported deaths in the U.S. first fall below 5,000 on the 7-day period ending on May 2nd or the 7-day period ending on May 9th?	Binary
-3.062	Will the recipient of the 2020 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economics work for a top cited scholastic institution?	Binary
-3.415	When will Chicago CTA subway cars reopen for non-essential travel?	Continuous
-3.517	When will the total international (outside mainland China) cases of COVID-19 exceed the total cases within mainland China?	Continuous
-3.771	Will Republicans win both halves of Congress + Presidency in the US 2020 Election?	Binary
-4.157	If Trump loses the election, will he contest the results?	Binary
-4.562	How many thousand cattle will be slaughtered in Australia in Q4 2020?	Continuous
-4.684	Will FiveThirtyEight ace the 2020 US presidential electoral map?	Binary
-4.722	Will the US ban TikTok by the end of the year?	Binary
-4.975	Will the Q2 2020 Delinquency Rate on Residential Mortgages be higher than that in Q1 2020?	Binary
-5.070	Will more than one entrant achieve a perfect score in the 2020 IMO in St. Petersburg?	Binary
-5.081	[Short fuse] Will Michael Bloomberg drop out before the March 13th?	Binary
-5.119	LRT 1.5: How many deaths due to COVID-19 will occur in the US in 2020?	Continuous
-5.266	Will California have a wildfire among the 10 most destructive in state history in 2020?	Binary
-5.638	Will Dominic Cummings still be Chief Adviser to Boris Johnson at the end of his first term?	Binary
-5.955	Will the 2020 Eurovision Song Contest be cancelled due to COVID-19?	Binary
-6.108	[Short fuse] Will 538's election forecast rate Trump's chances higher than the forecast from The Economist?	Binary
-6.918	How many seats will the Australian Greens Party hold in the ACT after the 2020 Territory Election?	Continuous
-6.946	What will the top Android phone score be on Passmark on January 1st 2021? [12k - 24k range]	Continuous
-7.042	Will the Democratic candidate for the 2020 US presidential election be chosen at the Democratic National Convention after only one round of voting?	Binary
-7.472	In the 2020 US presidential election, will Kanye West win more votes in any state than the difference between the first and second place finishers in that state?	Binary
-8.040	Will the Coup-o-meter enter "Attempted Coup" or "Coup" territory by February 1st 2021?	Binary
-8.660	Will Airbnb's services be suspended in any country due to COVID-19-related concerns before June 27th, 2020?	Binary
-8.713	LRT 1.3: As of Saturday May 9, 2020, how many COVID-19 related deaths will have occurred in Illinois?	Continuous
-8.976	When will an efficacious COVID-19 vaccine obtain emergency use authorization in the United States?	Continuous
-9.785	Will Michael Bloomberg emerge as the leading moderate candidate after Super Tuesday?	Binary
-9.816	When will Trump first test negative from COVID-19?	Continuous
-10.872	Will Art Basel occur on September 17 to September 20 2020	Binary
-11.412	Will Edward Snowden receive a federal pardon by January 20th 2021?	Binary
-12.099	Will Airbnb services be suspended in at least two major metropolitan areas outside of Mainland China due to COVID-19-related concerns before June 27th, 2020?	Binary
-12.994	Will it be reported that Trump has tested positive for COVID-19 in 2020?	Binary
-14.552	How many deaths related to COVID-19 will be reported, as opposed to estimated, by WHO before 2021?	Continuous
-15.960	Will New York City close most of its public schools due to COVID-19 before 2021?	Binary
-15.979	[Short Fuse] Will Warsaw (the capital of Poland) become a red epidemic zone before the 24th of October 2020?	Binary
-20.343	Will the PredictIt prediction market outperform Fivethirtyeight's forecasts for the 2020 Super Tuesday Democratic primaries?	Binary
-23.643	Will any city or town in the US be put under mandated lockdown by the end of 2020 due to the novel coronavirus outbreak?	Binary
-24.662	Will EA Global San Francisco be cancelled or rescheduled due to COVID-19?	Binary
-25.387	[short fuse] Will an opposition party win a new GRC in Singapore’s 2020 general election?	Binary
-26.027	Will voter turnout for the US 2020 presidential election be higher than 2016 by 2 percentage points or more?	Binary
-29.754	How many episodes of the FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast will be released in the run-up to the US 2020 presidential election?	Continuous
-32.820	Industrial Production Index in October 2020	Continuous
-36.037	If the U.S. sees at least 50,000 COVID-19 cases before November 2020, will Trump be reelected president in 2020?	Binary
-66.483	How many COVID-19 cases in the US federal legislature will be publicly reported before 2021?	Continuous