AABoyles

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2020

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6.156	Weighted Average Score
Score	Question	Question Type
85.404	What will be the peak unemployment rate in the United States for calendar year 2020?	Continuous
79.812	How many cyberattacks by Iran against US Govt. systems in Q1 2020?	Continuous
79.184	[closed] How many human infections of the 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) will be estimated to occur before 2021?	Continuous
72.942	What will Tesla's market capitalization be on 1 January 2021?	Continuous
72.010	How many COVID-2019 cases will be confirmed in the location with the most cases outside of Mainland China on March the 27th?	Continuous
66.171	Will it be reported that Trump has tested positive for COVID-19 in 2020?	Binary
62.585	LRT 1.6: When will the daily number of new hospital admissions for COVID-19 illness in New York City drop below 200 for the first time since mid-March?	Continuous
56.979	How many total confirmed cases of novel coronavirus will be reported in the WHO African region by March 27?	Continuous
53.661	How many total confirmed cases of coronavirus will be reported by Johns Hopkin's CSSE on February 3rd?	Continuous
52.278	What will the May 2020 US nonfarm payrolls figure be?	Continuous
50.684	LRT 2.1: What is the number of total confirmed cases in the US that COVID Tracker will have in the daily report this coming Sunday, May 3rd?	Continuous
49.774	How many COVID-2019 cases in Europe will be confirmed on April the 27th?	Continuous
41.010	For how many countries will the CDC issue a Level 3 Travel Health Notice by May 15, due to the novel coronavirus?	Continuous
40.474	[Short-fuse] Will Donald Trump's Tulsa Oklahoma rally on June 20 result in a spike of COVID-19 cases?	Binary
37.893	What proportion of novel coronavirus infections outside China by March 27 will be due to exposure in China?	Continuous
36.642	Will global carbon emissions in 2020 be higher than they were in 2019?	Binary
35.805	What will be the US U-6 unemployment rate for May 2020?	Continuous
32.552	What proportion of Senate Democratic incumbents will be defeated in the 2020 election?	Continuous
31.220	What will be the S&P 500 end-of-day low in 2020?	Continuous
30.995	Will the S&P 500 Index end 2020 higher?	Binary
28.463	How many total COVID-2019 cases in the USA will be confirmed on April the 27th?	Continuous
26.328	In second edition of the Animal Protection Index how many countries will be listed with B or A grades on the indicator for "Formal Recognition of Animal Sentience"?	Continuous
25.921	How many COVID-19 cases in the US federal legislature will be publicly reported before 2021?	Continuous
24.109	How many contests will Bernie Sanders win in the 2020 Democratic Primaries?	Continuous
23.233	What will the Seattle Police Department report as the total number of criminal offenses in March 2020?	Continuous
22.727	If Trump loses the election, will he contest the results?	Binary
22.629	Will the GOP hold the Senate on January 3rd 2021?	Binary
22.500	Will the Democrats hold the US House of Representatives in the 2020 Election?	Binary
22.143	How many geoengineering-related papers will be published in the year 2020?	Continuous
21.947	Will Prediction Markets judge the Democratic primary to be settled after Super Tuesday?	Binary
21.926	Before 2020-05-17, will at least two public health agencies claim that China deliberately misreported COVID-19 infections?	Binary
21.762	Will Iran deploy no Zafar communications satellite by 2021?	Binary
21.237	How many total confirmed cases of coronavirus will be reported by Johns Hopkins CSSE on February the 17th?	Continuous
20.209	What will the quarter-on-quarter US Q1 2020 GDP growth rate be, according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
19.491	LRT 2.3.5: Will total newly weekly reported deaths in the U.S. first fall below 5,000 on or after June 20th?	Binary
18.851	How many infections of COVID-19 confirmed by testing will be reported before 2021?	Continuous
18.449	LRT 2.3.3: Will total newly reported deaths in the U.S. first fall below 5,000 on the 7-day period ending on May 30th or the 7-day period ending on June 6th?	Binary
17.598	What will the Metaculus community average log score be for COVID-19 related questions on 20 Jan 2021?	Continuous
16.283	What will be the US unemployment rate for April 2020?	Continuous
15.229	How much karma will the top LessWrong post in 2020 have?	Continuous
14.790	LRT 2.4: What will the average number of new daily confirmed cases be, over the period from 10th, till May 16th, in the state of Georgia?	Continuous
14.757	Will early 2020 AI solve at least 20% of previously unseen IQ-test like tasks?	Binary
14.525	Will the first post from Instagram’s official account @instagram after this question closes be a photograph or video of an instagram user?	Binary
13.923	When will the SpaceX Demo-2 launch?	Continuous
13.094	What will the US Q2 2020 GDP growth rate be, according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
13.091	How many cumulative confirmed cases of coronavirus in the entire Bay Area will be reported by Johns Hopkins CSSE on April 1st, 2020?	Continuous
12.320	Will the CDC issue a Level 3 Travel Health Notice for Thailand by May 1?	Binary
12.038	How many total confirmed cases of novel coronavirus will be reported in the WHO European region by March 27?	Continuous
11.948	In the year 2020, will no gene drive be launched to fight malaria-carrying mosquitoes in any part of the world?	Binary
11.900	Will Apple announce plans to make ARM-based Mac at WWDC 2020?	Binary
11.726	How many COVID-2019 cases in South Korea will be confirmed on March the 27th?	Continuous
11.577	How many total confirmed cases of novel coronavirus will be reported in the WHO Western Pacific Region, outside of China and Taiwan, by March 27?	Continuous
11.544	Will all major 2020 US presidential candidates survive the COVID-19 epidemic?	Binary
11.362	LRT 1.2: As of Saturday May 9, 2020, how many COVID-19 related deaths will have occurred in the US?	Continuous
11.248	Have we permanently lost contact with ASTERIA?	Binary
11.168	Will at least 9 of the 12 states hit hardest by COVID-19 in 2020 be states that voted for Trump in 2016?	Binary
10.838	When will the total international (outside mainland China) cases of COVID-19 exceed the total cases within mainland China?	Continuous
10.554	Will the US hold mass-turnout elections for President on schedule in 2020?	Binary
10.547	How much higher will the annual mean surface air temperature be in 2020, relative to the 1951-1980 base period?	Continuous
10.162	On May 1st, what percentage of Americans will be "very worried" that they, someone in their family or someone else they know will become infected with the coronavirus?	Continuous
10.151	How many Electoral College votes will the Democratic Party nominee win in the 2020 presidential election?	Continuous
10.112	Will the Chinese police or military intervene in Hong Kong before Summer 2020?	Binary
10.076	Will the Democratic candidate for the 2020 US presidential election be chosen at the Democratic National Convention after only one round of voting?	Binary
9.446	When will the total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases reach 1 million?	Continuous
9.241	Will a third-party candidate get more than 5% of the popular vote in the 2020 US Presidential Election?	Binary
8.084	Will Joe Biden be the Democratic Party nominee for president of the United States on election day 2020?	Binary
7.918	Will Boris Johnson recover from COVID-19?	Binary
7.149	Will the US see a massive riot in 2020?	Binary
7.010	Will the 2020 Tokyo Olympics be cancelled due to COVID-19?	Binary
6.906	Will the WHO or North Korean Government confirm any COVID-19 cases in North Korea by 2020-05-17?	Binary
6.267	Will China fail to curtail its internment camps programs for Uyghurs and Muslims in 2020?	Binary
6.097	If president Trump loses the 2020 election, will he concede?	Binary
5.757	Will at least 1 million COVID-19 deaths be reported in any single calendar month in 2020?	Binary
5.630	LRT 2.3.2: Will total newly reported deaths in the U.S. first fall below 5,000 on the 7-day period ending on May 16th or the 7-day period ending on May 23?	Binary
5.066	What will the US employment to population ratio be in May 2020?	Continuous
5.017	Will Amazon ($AMZN) make a public offer to acquire FedEx ($FDX) by June 30, 2020?	Binary
4.892	Will a woman be the Democratic candidate for Vice-President of the USA in 2020?	Binary
4.762	How many total confirmed cases of novel coronavirus will be reported in the WHO Region of the Americas by March 27?	Continuous
4.730	Will Democrats win both halves of Congress + Presidency in the US 2020 Election?	Binary
4.717	Will most UK schools reopen in time for the 2020-2021 academic year?	Binary
4.326	How many COVID-2019 cases will be confirmed in the location with the most cases outside of China on April the 27th?	Continuous
4.253	Will there be a US-Iran war in 2020?	Binary
4.135	What will the magnitude of most severe earthquake to strike California in 2020 be?	Continuous
4.102	How many predictions will have been made on Metaculus by the following dates? (December 18, 2020)	Continuous
4.068	Will at least 10,000 COVID-19 deaths be reported in any single calendar month in 2020?	Binary
4.056	Will another location overtake Hubei as the location of the largest COVID-19 outbreak before 2021?	Binary
3.915	Will JHU CSSE's COVID-19 dashboard remain open and maintained through 2020-12-31?	Binary
3.707	Will Kim Jong-un be officially confirmed dead before May 15 2020?	Binary
3.450	How many active Airbnb listings will there be in Beijing on the 1st of April of 2020?	Continuous
3.245	LRT 1.3: As of Saturday May 9, 2020, how many COVID-19 related deaths will have occurred in Illinois?	Continuous
2.751	US invades and attempts a regime change in Iran in 2020?	Binary
2.635	How much transit activity will there be in the San Francisco Bay Area in the last week of June?	Continuous
2.482	Will any city or town in the US be put under mandated lockdown by the end of 2020 due to the novel coronavirus outbreak?	Binary
2.229	Will at least 100,000 COVID-19 deaths be reported in any single calendar month in 2020?	Binary
2.162	Will facial recognition be banned in at least 3 more U.S. cities in 2020?	Binary
1.979	Will Airbnb services be suspended in at least two major metropolitan areas outside of Mainland China due to COVID-19-related concerns before June 27th, 2020?	Binary
1.978	LRT 2.3.1: Will total newly reported deaths in the U.S. first fall below 5,000 on the 7-day period ending on May 2nd or the 7-day period ending on May 9th?	Binary
1.860	Will EA Global London 2020 be cancelled or rescheduled due to COVID-19?	Binary
1.366	How many COVID-19 cases in the Netherlands will be confirmed on April the 27th?	Continuous
1.108	Will Keir Starmer win the 2020 Labour leadership contest?	Binary
1.030	LRT 1.4: As of Saturday May 9, 2020, how many COVID-19 related deaths will have occurred in Louisiana?	Continuous
0.975	LRT 2.3.4: Will total newly reported deaths in the U.S. first fall below 5,000 on the 7-day period ending on June 13th or the 7-day period ending on June 20th?	Binary
0.749	Will Airbnb's services be suspended in any country due to COVID-19-related concerns before June 27th, 2020?	Binary
0.518	Will Michael Bloomberg emerge as the leading moderate candidate after Super Tuesday?	Binary
0.508	Will Brexit (finally) happen in 2020?	Binary
0.261	[Short fuse] Will Michael Bloomberg drop out before the March 13th?	Binary
0.256	Will Punxsutawney Phil's prediction of an early spring come true in 2020?	Binary
0.236	Will Elon Musk's baby's name, X Æ A - 12, turn out to be his real name?	Binary
0.232	How many (cumulative) total confirmed cases of COVID-2019 will be reported in the United Kingdom on April the 27th?	Continuous
0.214	Will EA Global San Francisco be cancelled or rescheduled due to COVID-19?	Binary
0.159	Will China Oceanwide Holdings Group Co., Ltd. complete an acquisition of Genworth (GNW) before July 1, 2020?	Binary
0.020	On May 1st, what percentage of Americans will be "very worried" about the coronavirus’s effect on the U.S. economy?	Continuous
-0.225	Will the PredictIt prediction market outperform Fivethirtyeight's forecasts for the 2020 Super Tuesday Democratic primaries?	Binary
-0.233	If Trump loses the election in 2020, will he maintain that he is still the president on January 21st 2021?	Binary
-0.295	How much transit activity will there be in New York City in the last week of June?	Continuous
-1.140	How many total confirmed cases of novel coronavirus will be reported in the WHO South-East Asia Region by March 27?	Continuous
-1.268	Will Francisco Partners / Evergreen complete its acquisition of LogMeIn (LOGM) before June 01, 2020?	Binary
-1.335	Will a vaccine targeted at the 2019 novel coronavirus (Covid-19) be administered to at least 10,000 people in 2020?	Binary
-1.438	Will Donald Trump's first term end before the next supreme court appointment?	Binary
-1.790	Will the Emergency Telework Act (S.3561) become law by 4/25/20?	Binary
-1.968	How many total confirmed cases of novel coronavirus will be reported in the WHO East Mediterranean region by March 27?	Continuous
-2.479	Will the Doomsday clock advance closer to Midnight?	Binary
-4.499	Will at least one Metaculus user report a positive test result for novel coronavirus by the end of 2020?	Binary
-4.605	If the U.S. sees at least 50,000 COVID-19 cases before November 2020, will Trump be reelected president in 2020?	Binary
-5.679	What will the April 2020 US nonfarm payrolls figure be?	Continuous
-7.000	How many judges will the US Senate confirm in 2020?	Continuous
-7.642	Will a major metropolitan area in the US, EU, or the UK experience a food shortage due to COVID-19 before June 6th, 2020?	Binary
-7.773	How many structures will be destroyed by wildfires in California in 2020?	Continuous
-8.578	How many US state governors, members of the Supreme Court, and members of Congress will die from COVID-19 in 2020?	Continuous
-9.823	Will the average world temperature in 2020 be higher than in 2019?	Binary
-9.964	How many new cases of COVID-19 in the 2nd quarter of 2020?	Continuous
-11.231	Will New York City close most of its public schools due to COVID-19 before 2021?	Binary
-12.847	Will remdesivir be administered to at least 50,000 patients with SARS-CoV-2 infections in the US, UK, EU member states, and Japan, by the end of 2020?	Binary
-12.850	What will Washington state’s Department of Revenue report as the 2020 Q1 gross business income?	Continuous
-13.317	Will Netanyahu remain Israeli's Prime Minister till the end of 2020?	Binary
-14.441	Will a major US website crash due to internet traffic in April?	Binary
-15.050	Will Donald Trump tweet that Bernie Sanders is a communist before the 2020 election?	Binary
-15.883	Will the CDC issue a Level 3 Travel Health Notice for France by May 1?	Binary
-16.153	Will California have a wildfire among the 10 most destructive in state history in 2020?	Binary
-16.604	Will the US federal government shut down all non-essential services by 2020-04-19?	Binary
-16.695	How many cumulative confirmed cases of coronavirus in San Francisco will be reported by Johns Hopkins CSSE on April 1st, 2020?	Continuous
-21.873	Will North Korea launch an intercontinental ballistic missile in 2020?	Binary
-24.775	Will Trump's pants catch fire on at least five more occasions than Biden's during the month of July?	Binary
-26.322	Will Harvard University open classes on September 2, 2020?	Binary
-27.592	How many COVID-2019 cases in the United Kingdom will be confirmed on March the 27th?	Continuous
-28.341	What will be the US unemployment rate for March 2020?	Continuous
-29.411	Will Dominic Cummings still be Chief Adviser to Boris Johnson at the end of his first term?	Binary
-37.675	How many total confirmed cases of coronavirus outside of China will be reported by Johns Hopkins CSSE on March 2nd, 2020?	Continuous
-51.719	Will Whole Woman's Health be overturned in 2020?	Binary
-56.696	What will be the doubling time of COVID-19 cases during the peak growth period in 2020?	Continuous
-88.993	How many total confirmed cases of coronavirus will be reported by Johns Hopkin's CSSE on March 2nd, 2020?	Continuous
-106.080	Which month of 2020 will see the biggest global increase of COVID-19 cases?	Continuous
-124.394	Will an Aerospike (finally) Fly?	Binary
-151.448	LRT 1.5: How many deaths due to COVID-19 will occur in the US in 2020?	Continuous