ad42astra

User

Duration:10 years

Time Period:2016-25

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

We sometimes recruit upstanding members of the community who are excellent question writers to become paid moderators.

Fill out our expression of interest form if you would like to be considered.

13.89		Weighted Average Score
Score	Coverage	Question	Question Type
60.227	99.4%	What will be the ratio of fatalities to total estimated infections for COVID-19 by the end of 2020?	Continuous
44.219	99.7%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Donald Trump)	Binary
42.006	72.8%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Donald Trump)	Binary
40.883	92.7%	Will a member of the Trump family be the Republican nominee for the US Presidency in 2024?	Binary
38.671	67.0%	What will be the largest number of digits of π to have ever been computed by December 31, 2025?	Continuous
37.479	35.0%	When will Blue Origin send a paying customer to space?	Continuous
34.493	90.0%	PhilPapers survey mini-series: Is mind uploading thought to amount to death?	Continuous
28.335	73.6%	Will Nord Stream 2 be completed before 2025?	Binary
28.037	50.6%	When will the COVID-19 epidemic subside in Russia?	Continuous
26.543	99.7%	Will Robin Hanson win a bet that the GPT line of language models will generate < $1Bn in customer revenue before 2025?	Binary
19.691	70.9%	What will be Donald Trump's net worth in 2024?	Continuous
19.577	76.7%	Will the United States land humans on the moon again before 2025?	Binary
19.270	53.0%	Will the U.S. get rid of the penny by 2025?	Binary
18.331	57.8%	Will World GDP grow every year until 2025?	Binary
16.496	98.8%	Will Any Major AI Company Commit to an AI Windfall Clause by 2025?	Binary
16.413	99.8%	Before January 1, 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that COVID-19 more likely than not originated in a laboratory?	Binary
14.610	77.0%	Will Extinction Rebellion, or a splinter group, be declared a terrorist organisation by a G7 country before 2025?	Binary
12.384	99.1%	Will the Dai stablecoin maintain a value of roughly $1 until July 2023?	Binary
12.066	92.7%	PhilPapers survey mini-series: Immortality - would philosophers choose it?	Continuous
10.654	46.5%	Will Metaculus release a dedicated mobile app before 2023?	Binary
9.655	16.8%	When will an individual SpaceX Falcon 9 core stage launch and return to Earth for the tenth time?	Continuous
9.581	96.2%	Will a Wealth Tax be passed if a Democrat is elected president in 2020?	Binary
8.676	40.4%	Will no non-test nuclear weapons be detonated by January 1, 2024?	Binary
7.579	50.3%	Will Russia invade or annex all or part of Belarus before 2022?	Binary
6.721	61.7%	Before 2025, will an asteroid or comet estimated to be at least 50 meters in diameter be detected to be due to collide with Earth before 2100?	Binary
5.938	57.5%	Will Scotland leave the United Kingdom before 2025?	Binary
5.581	67.4%	Will NASA's SLS launch a person to the Moon before 2024?	Binary
5.565	4.6%	When will George R. R. Martin's “The Winds of Winter” be released?	Continuous
5.277	70.8%	Will the identity of Bitcoin's founder, Satoshi Nakamoto, be revealed to the general public by 2025?	Binary
4.732	70.7%	PhilPapers survey mini-series: The many-worlds interpretation of quantum mechanics	Continuous
4.224	22.1%	Will Emmanuel Macron be re-elected President of France in 2022?	Binary
3.562	29.7%	Will there be a major nuclear or radiological accident before January 1, 2022?	Binary
3.226	70.0%	Will any of these Reddit alternatives be more popular than Reddit by 2026?	Binary
3.046	89.9%	Will Republicans win control of the US House of Representatives in 2022?	Binary
2.961	80.5%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Kamala Harris)	Binary
2.649	11.7%	Will Roger Federer win another Grand Slam title?	Binary
2.181	97.2%	Will Lebanon come under French rule again before 2025?	Binary
1.902	24.4%	Will Trump flee the United States?	Binary
1.893	5.2%	Will the Extremely Large Telescope see first light by the end of 2024?	Binary
1.883	100.0%	Will Kamala Harris be president before inauguration day 2025?	Binary
1.512	10.3%	Will the US FDA grant Neuralink permission to implant a brain-machine interface device in a human before 1 January 2022?	Binary
1.402	8.5%	Will the world population grow every year from 2016 to 2025 (inclusive)?	Binary
1.382	6.7%	Will Facebook block links to Bitchute before 2023?	Binary
1.175	2.1%	What will be the sentiment of Metaculus users with regard to self-resolving questions at the end of 2022?	Continuous
1.088	3.7%	Will Stephen Bannon be found guilty of fraud?	Binary
0.696	3.7%	Funds toward a Solar storm shield begun by 2021?	Binary
0.567	0.7%	Another hit by two Cat 4+ hurricanes in the same year?	Binary
0.522	13.1%	If the James Webb Space Telescope is launched, will it succeed in transmitting cosmological data?	Binary
0.521	12.1%	Will Cuba still be a communist state in 2023?	Binary
0.447	6.9%	When will the first law concerning artificial intelligence be passed in the US?	Continuous
0.401	25.3%	Will Elon Musk (eventually) lose his appeal?	Binary
0.312	4.6%	Will Angela Merkel remain chancellor after the next German federal elections?	Binary
0.288	55.2%	Will Xi Jinping keep leading China past 2022?	Binary
0.227	1.9%	Pathogen research rejected for publication as an information hazard by 2021?	Binary
0.215	0.9%	When will Boris Johnson cease to be Prime Minister of the United Kingdom?	Continuous
0.199	0.3%	Will one of the verified oldest living persons in the world reach 120 years of age?	Binary
0.194	0.2%	By 2025, Will The Boring Company dig more tunnels (by length) than Trump's Mexican Border Wall?	Binary
0.152	0.2%	When will GTA VI be released in the US?	Continuous
0.139	1.2%	Will no evidence for a new light (17 MeV) particle be independently published before 2021?	Binary
0.104	0.3%	Will KIC 9832227 go "red nova" – observable to the naked eye on Earth – by 2024?	Binary
0.098	0.9%	Will Chinese official real GDP numbers be revised downward by at least 5% before 2023?	Binary
0.072	0.2%	When will programs write programs for us?	Continuous
0.065	0.4%	How many new electric bus registrations will Europe see in 2021?	Continuous
0.061	2.9%	Will the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER) start operating by end of 2025?	Binary
0.049	0.1%	What percentage of Americans will be able to cover an unexpected $400 expense without selling something or borrowing money in 2020?	Continuous
0.041	0.2%	Will a charity primarily operating in China become an ACE Top Charity in 2021 or 2022?	Binary
0.041	0.2%	Will any Wirecard executive receive a custodial sentence for their involvement in the Wirecard collapse?	Binary
0.031	2.5%	Will Erin O'Toole become Prime Minister of Canada before 2024?	Binary
0.023	0.5%	Will Nigel Farage become Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before 2023?	Binary
0.021	0.0%	What will be the gross receipts of the SENS Research Foundation in the 2021 tax year, as reported on their Form 990?	Continuous
0.021	0.1%	Will Yang get 200k donors or more in the 2024 US presidential race?	Binary
0.021	0.1%	When will there be at least 5 billion internet users?	Continuous
0.018	0.1%	Will the UK housing market crash before July 2023?	Binary
0.017	0.2%	Will the United States test a nuclear weapon before 2023?	Binary
0.011	0.1%	How many people will be born in the United States in the year 2021?	Continuous
0.006	0.0%	Will the number of people in extreme poverty in 2020 be lower than the number in 2015?	Binary
0.001	0.0%	Will Erdogan be re-elected President of Turkey?	Binary
0.001	0.0%	Will the UK's NHS recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?	Binary
-0.001	0.0%	Will detection of phosphine in Venus atmosphere be independently reproduced by 2023?	Binary
-0.001	0.0%	Will the US NIH recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?	Binary
-0.005	0.2%	How much money will be donated to ACE in 2021?	Continuous
-0.009	0.2%	What will the democracy index of Kyrgyzstan be in 2022?	Continuous
-0.013	0.2%	What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be, at the end of 2022?	Continuous
-0.013	0.1%	How many laws will be enacted during the 117th United States Congress?	Continuous
-0.019	0.2%	Which image classification benchmark will be most popular in the calendar year 2022?	Continuous
-0.035	0.1%	What will be net migration to the United Kingdom in 2021?	Continuous
-0.036	0.2%	How much money will ACE estimate to have influenced in 2021?	Continuous
-0.044	0.5%	How many spaceflight-related fatalities will occur between January 1 2020 and January 1 2025?	Continuous
-0.049	0.2%	What will be the maximum number of COVID-19 cases reported in a single day in the United States before 2025?	Continuous
-0.136	2.4%	Will Metaculus Inc. host a prediction market prior to 2024?	Binary
-0.163	0.1%	How many publicly traded U.S.- or EU-based plant-based meat producers will be valued at $1bn or more on October 4th, 2023?	Continuous
-0.238	2.6%	What will be the EU GDP growth (year on year) in 2021?	Continuous
-0.287	3.8%	When will the James Webb Space Telescope be launched?	Continuous
-0.929	5.7%	Will the US per capita productivity rate of science Nobel Prizes fall below that of Germany by 2025?	Binary
-1.192	93.6%	When will a language model with at least 100B parameters be open sourced including for commercial use?	Continuous
-1.475	83.2%	Will Italy leave the Eurozone before 2023?	Binary
-1.669	3.0%	Qualia Research Institute Question Series: Will we see evidence that Piracetam is a more effective Alzheimer's treatment than Memantine by 2021?	Binary
-1.910	26.3%	Will a 100 trillion parameter deep learning model be trained before 2026?	Binary
-2.320	59.7%	Will an official diagnosis of dementia be announced for Joe Biden before 2023?	Binary
-3.132	42.0%	Will the Mars 2020 helicopter fly?	Binary
-4.026	16.0%	Will Trump be indicted for obstruction of justice before 2026?	Binary
-6.100	99.8%	In the 2024 US presidential election, how many states will use plurality voting methods to choose their electors?	Continuous
-6.911	17.1%	Will an AI system do credibly well on a full math SAT exam by 2025?	Binary
-10.981	27.9%	Will a scientific mission to the outer solar system be assigned to the Falcon Heavy by mid-2023?	Binary
-15.455	89.2%	PhilPapers survey mini-series: Biological-ness of race	Continuous
-16.161	98.9%	How many people will die as a result of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) before 2021?	Continuous
-18.476	78.8%	Will a new variant of SARS-COV-2 that, due to a mutation, can infect people who had immunity to a previous variant, cause more than 10M infections globally by the end of 2021?	Binary
-20.261	90.7%	Bitcoin Extremes: Will 1 bitcoin be worth $100,000 or more before 2025?	Binary
-20.673	91.4%	How many predictions will have been made on Metaculus by the following dates? (December 31, 2023)	Continuous