niplav

User

Duration:10 years

Time Period:2016-25

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

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7.215		Weighted Average Score
Score	Coverage	Question	Question Type
74.201	92.0%	If Conservatives win the 2019 UK general election, what will be mean UK broadband download speeds 5 years later?	Continuous
72.312	97.1%	As of July 1, 2022, when will top forecasters expect the first Artificial General Intelligence to be developed and demonstrated?	Continuous
70.625	98.8%	If Joe Biden becomes president, what will be the yearly CO2 emissions per capita for the US in 2024, in tonnes?	Continuous
68.793	99.7%	When will the first course on wild animal welfare be taught at a top university?	Continuous
63.404	99.6%	When will /r/themotte be banned from Reddit?	Continuous
56.441	90.1%	At the end of 2025, will any of GiveWell's top charities perform mass deworming as their primary intervention?	Binary
50.194	98.0%	Before 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that China deliberately misreported COVID-19 infections?	Binary
48.024	90.8%	When will an AI defeat one of the top-10 StarCraft 2 players?	Continuous
44.285	97.4%	Bitcoin Extremes: Will 1 bitcoin be worth $100,000 or more before 2025?	Binary
44.022	76.9%	How many people will die as a result of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) before 2021?	Continuous
42.804	93.2%	What will the real GDP/capita of the USA be in 2024 if Joe Biden is elected president?	Continuous
39.358	93.8%	How many new electric vehicles will be registered worldwide, in the calendar year 2023?	Continuous
38.703	99.4%	How much exercise can you do before it starts to take more time than it adds life?	Continuous
37.010	99.5%	How many cents will it cost a typical consumer in the United States to store 10 GB of data on January 1st 2025?	Continuous
35.528	97.2%	Will the federal minimum wage increase in the United States before 2025?	Binary
31.461	87.4%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Donald Trump)	Binary
29.183	90.8%	Will Republicans control the US Senate after the 2022 election?	Binary
27.377	98.7%	In which month will there first be 20,000 new papers submitted to the arXiv?	Continuous
27.322	72.8%	How much will the total U.S. plant-based milk market be worth in the year ending in April 2023, in millions of USD?	Continuous
25.614	68.7%	Will WeWork file for bankruptcy protection before January 1, 2025?	Binary
24.401	86.6%	What percentage of egg-laying hens will be cage-free, in the U.S., in June 2025?	Continuous
21.577	49.2%	Will World GDP grow every year until 2025?	Binary
21.265	62.8%	Will Emmanuel Macron be re-elected President of France in 2022?	Binary
21.146	59.2%	What will the listing price of an Impossible Food's plant-based beef burger be, in a U.S.-based supermarket, in USD per kilo, in June, 2022?	Continuous
20.772	78.1%	Will the number of people in extreme poverty in 2020 be lower than the number in 2015?	Binary
20.491	94.8%	Will the IAU rework its definition of planetary status by Jan 1, 2025?	Binary
19.880	69.6%	What will the U.S. market for plant-based meat be worth in the year ending in April 2023?	Continuous
19.536	66.8%	When will 1 Terabyte MicroSD cards fall below $100USD?	Continuous
18.757	99.2%	What will be the sentiment of Metaculus users with regard to self-resolving questions at the end of 2022?	Continuous
18.265	90.0%	When will a discernible, coordinated Bitcoin mining pool attain >=50% of the hashing power for 24-hours?	Continuous
18.163	70.0%	Will someone hold their breath for more than 30 minutes before 2025?	Binary
17.699	70.2%	How much will the total U.S. plant-based foods market be worth in the year ending in April 2023, in millions of USD?	Continuous
16.895	97.7%	Before January 1, 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that COVID-19 more likely than not originated in a laboratory?	Binary
15.813	62.1%	What will the average global atmospheric CO₂ concentration be, over the 2020-2021 period?	Continuous
15.654	82.8%	Will no non-test nuclear weapons be detonated by January 1, 2024?	Binary
15.558	87.7%	Will Yang get 200k donors or more in the 2024 US presidential race?	Binary
15.355	99.9%	Will Robin Hanson win a bet that the GPT line of language models will generate < $1Bn in customer revenue before 2025?	Binary
15.351	99.0%	Will a recession cause "suicides by the thousands"?	Binary
15.267	99.5%	Will Metaculus Inc. host a prediction market prior to 2024?	Binary
14.976	92.7%	What will be the largest number of digits of π to have ever been computed by December 31, 2025?	Continuous
14.624	82.5%	Will the United States land humans on the moon again before 2025?	Binary
14.097	89.8%	How much forest coverage loss will occur in Brazil over the three-year period starting from 2020?	Continuous
14.087	30.6%	A major United States earthquake by 2023?	Binary
13.552	78.6%	Will lab-grown complex vital organs be used successfully in humans before 2025?	Binary
12.827	38.8%	PhilPapers survey mini-series: Immortality - would philosophers choose it?	Continuous
11.558	38.2%	PhilPapers survey mini-series: Consciousness of future AI systems	Continuous
11.486	93.0%	Will the Dai stablecoin maintain a value of roughly $1 until July 2023?	Binary
11.175	77.2%	How many publicly traded U.S.- or EU-based plant-based meat producers will be valued at $1bn or more on October 4th, 2023?	Continuous
10.690	80.4%	Will any of the 20 most valuable public companies in the United States (As of January 2019) file for bankruptcy protection before 2025?	Binary
10.495	85.6%	What will be the ratio of fatalities to total estimated infections for COVID-19 by the end of 2020?	Continuous
10.071	28.8%	Will the U.S. get rid of the penny by 2025?	Binary
9.928	29.7%	What will be the value of the (herein described) "AI winter index" at end of 2021?	Continuous
9.893	90.0%	What will be the U.S. average weekly hours of all employees (total non-farm private) in October 2025?	Continuous
9.716	74.5%	Before 2025, will an asteroid or comet estimated to be at least 50 meters in diameter be detected to be due to collide with Earth before 2100?	Binary
9.527	38.2%	PhilPapers survey mini-series: The many-worlds interpretation of quantum mechanics	Continuous
9.154	82.9%	Will NASA's SLS launch a person to the Moon before 2024?	Binary
8.771	65.0%	Will the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER) start operating by end of 2025?	Binary
8.699	39.0%	PhilPapers survey mini-series: Is mind uploading thought to amount to death?	Continuous
8.458	90.0%	What will the Harvard admit rate be for the undergraduate class of 2029?	Continuous
8.344	74.5%	Will the identity of Bitcoin's founder, Satoshi Nakamoto, be revealed to the general public by 2025?	Binary
8.291	75.5%	Will there be another VEI level six (or higher) volcanic eruption on Earth before 2025?	Binary
7.900	21.2%	Efficacy confirmation of a new Alzheimer's treatment protocol?	Binary
7.726	59.7%	Will Extinction Rebellion, or a splinter group, be declared a terrorist organisation by a G7 country before 2025?	Binary
7.205	92.8%	Will our global atmospheric CO₂ concentration over the 2020 to 2023 period be on path to limit warming to 1.4°C by mid-century?	Binary
6.943	84.3%	How many predictions will have been made on Metaculus by the following dates? (December 31, 2023)	Continuous
6.772	35.2%	How much less global warming if the US resumes participation in the Paris Agreement?	Continuous
6.737	99.9%	Will Mike Pence be elected president of the United States in 2024?	Binary
6.314	55.9%	Will Cuba still be a communist state in 2023?	Binary
5.939	55.0%	Will Israel be the fourth country to soft-land a spacecraft on the Moon, if they do so before 2026?	Binary
5.932	41.2%	Bitcoin Lightning Network Capacity in BTC on 2021-Aug-25	Continuous
5.659	29.8%	If the US enters a recession, how many months will the economic contraction last?	Continuous
5.474	19.5%	Will the US FDA grant Neuralink permission to implant a brain-machine interface device in a human before 1 January 2022?	Binary
5.310	92.9%	Will Kamala Harris be president before inauguration day 2025?	Binary
5.298	26.6%	Will an AI system do credibly well on a full math SAT exam by 2025?	Binary
5.217	67.9%	Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act before 2024?	Binary
5.077	77.8%	When will Metaculus be linked to by 130 sites?	Continuous
4.977	64.8%	Hutter Prize: At the end of 2022, what will be the best bits-per-character compression of a 1GB sample of Wikipedia?	Continuous
4.800	91.3%	Will an ocean be fertilised with at least 50 tonnes of iron, as part of a single geoengineering effort, by the end of 2023?	Binary
4.458	38.6%	PhilPapers survey mini-series: Biological-ness of race	Continuous
4.286	93.3%	Will 100 kilotonnes of sulphur be injected into the atmosphere, as part of a single geoengineering effort, before 2024?	Binary
4.157	78.8%	Will the Second Amendment of the United States Constitution be amended or repealed before 2025?	Binary
4.094	93.9%	Will a new variant of SARS-COV-2 that, due to a mutation, can infect people who had immunity to a previous variant, cause more than 10M infections globally by the end of 2021?	Binary
3.871	50.9%	Will Angela Merkel remain chancellor after the next German federal elections?	Binary
3.774	67.8%	Will Nigel Farage become Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before 2023?	Binary
3.390	38.2%	Will there be a major nuclear or radiological accident before January 1, 2022?	Binary
2.922	55.0%	Will total funding in longevity startups worldwide exceed $5bn in the year ending in November 2nd, 2020?	Binary
2.796	10.3%	Will Moon Express have a successful harvest by 2023?	Binary
2.743	91.4%	Will Turkey be a NATO member continuously until January 1, 2025?	Binary
2.665	16.2%	Will the Kármán Line be changed before 2023?	Binary
2.543	3.4%	Will the US unemployment rate reach 10% before 2023?	Binary
2.458	69.8%	Will the UK housing market crash before July 2023?	Binary
2.339	4.6%	When the first company reaches a $4 trillion market cap, will it be worth at least double what it was the year before?	Binary
2.155	12.1%	When will the first law concerning artificial intelligence be passed in the US?	Continuous
2.131	55.3%	Will an official diagnosis of dementia be announced for Joe Biden before 2023?	Binary
1.992	12.3%	When will these degrees of self-driving car autonomy be developed and commercially available? (L4)	Continuous
1.836	91.7%	How many intentionally genomic DNA altered animals will be approved for consumption by the FDA on July 31, 2025?	Continuous
1.800	18.8%	Will Russia invade or annex all or part of Belarus before 2022?	Binary
1.766	30.6%	Will Elon Musk (eventually) lose his appeal?	Binary
1.734	80.9%	Will any Member State leave the Eurozone before 2025?	Binary
1.572	93.0%	On December 1, 2023, how many companies worldwide will pledge uphold GAP standards for broiler chickens raised for meat?	Continuous
1.560	10.1%	How many subscribers will Netflix have by August 2022?	Continuous
1.472	95.8%	Will the United States institute a military draft by 2025?	Binary
1.254	77.4%	Will Parker Solar Probe survive its 24 loops around the sun while getting just a few million miles away from the surface of our star?	Binary
1.086	99.8%	Longbets series: By 2025 will the scientific evidence of a large bi-pedal great ape be sufficient to convince at least 50% of primatologists that a yeti/bigfoot-like creature exists?	Binary
0.572	4.7%	Will the world population grow every year from 2016 to 2025 (inclusive)?	Binary
0.528	12.1%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Tucker Carlson)	Binary
0.112	5.9%	When the first company reaches a $2 trillion market cap, will it be worth at least double what it was the year before?	Binary
0.037	58.2%	If the James Webb Space Telescope is launched, will it succeed in transmitting cosmological data?	Binary
-0.055	76.2%	Will Republicans win control of the US House of Representatives in 2022?	Binary
-0.077	3.4%	When will the US national debt reach $25 trillion?	Continuous
-0.085	19.5%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Kamala Harris)	Binary
-0.094	37.6%	When will the James Webb Space Telescope be launched?	Continuous
-0.120	38.2%	PhilPapers survey mini-series: Permissibility of genetic engineering	Continuous
-0.441	97.3%	What will the maximum increase in global annual mean surface air temperature be, relative to the 1951-1980 base period, in the 2020 to 2023 period?	Continuous
-0.674	25.7%	Will Trump flee the United States?	Binary
-0.968	97.5%	Will Mount Rushmore be intentionally destroyed or modified before 2025?	Binary
-1.064	98.9%	Bitcoin Extremes: Will the value of 1 bitcoin fall to $1,000 or less before 2025?	Binary
-1.347	34.0%	Will a 100 trillion parameter deep learning model be trained before 2026?	Binary
-1.488	74.6%	Will the USA's Labor Force Participation Rate be lower in 2023 than in 2018?	Binary
-2.640	36.0%	Will the Mars 2020 helicopter fly?	Binary
-3.275	63.7%	What will the upper limit in the IPCC's ‘likely’ range of its climate sensitivity estimate be, in its 6th Assessment Report?	Continuous
-3.515	7.5%	Will Moderna, Pfizer/BioNTech, or Oxford/AstraZeneca start producing an updated vaccine targeting a SARS-CoV-2 variant before 2023?	Binary
-3.665	20.4%	Qualia Research Institute Question Series: Will MDMA be approved for the treatment of PTSD by 2025?	Binary
-4.208	97.0%	How much solar energy will be consumed globally, in terawatt-hours, in the calendar year 2023?	Continuous
-4.253	64.7%	Will Xi Jinping keep leading China past 2022?	Binary
-4.684	79.9%	Will Scotland leave the United Kingdom before 2025?	Binary
-4.728	94.6%	Will the 2024 US presidential election also be considered fraudulent by the losing party?	Binary
-5.040	94.6%	What will the global weighted-average levelized cost of energy of onshore wind be in 2022, in 2018 USD per kWh?	Continuous
-5.419	16.5%	Will a scientific mission to the outer solar system be assigned to the Falcon Heavy by mid-2023?	Binary
-5.501	96.0%	Will a geoengineering act of Congress become US federal law by the end of 2024?	Binary
-5.563	99.0%	Will Italy leave the Eurozone before 2023?	Binary
-9.289	89.4%	Will General Electric (GE) file for chapter 7 or chapter 11 bankruptcy before September 18, 2024?	Binary
-9.659	45.2%	Will the community prediction do better than the Metaculus prediction for the 2nd instalment of the Lightning round?	Binary
-10.313	96.9%	Will a Wealth Tax be passed if a Democrat is elected president in 2020?	Binary
-10.777	71.9%	Will no evidence for a new light (17 MeV) particle be independently published before 2021?	Binary
-12.539	89.0%	Will the number of deaths from antibiotic-resistant infections per year double by December 31, 2025?	Binary
-13.483	91.8%	How many billions of broiler-type chicks will hatch in the U.S., on average per year, over the 2022-2024 period?	Continuous
-13.546	38.5%	Before 2023, will the United States CDC recommend that those who have already been vaccinated for SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) be vaccinated again due to a mutation in the virus?	Binary
-14.291	98.5%	Will Medicare for all be passed if a Democrat is elected president in 2020?	Binary
-15.066	95.9%	When will the volume-weighted average battery for electric vehicles and stationary storage reach $100 per kilowatt hour?	Continuous
-18.204	38.0%	PhilPapers survey mini-series: Impermissibility of eating animals and animal products	Continuous
-18.267	98.4%	Will "best practice" in treating Coronavirus involve administering Vitamin D before the end of the pandemic?	Binary
-19.322	95.7%	Will there be at least 200 companies developing technologies to defeat aging by 2025?	Binary
-21.451	70.4%	What will be the maximum number of COVID-19 cases reported in a single day in the United States before 2025?	Continuous
-22.350	99.7%	Will Any Major AI Company Commit to an AI Windfall Clause by 2025?	Binary
-22.401	88.6%	What will the mean of the year-over-year growth rate of the sum of teraflops of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500 be, in the three year period ending in November 2023?	Continuous
-23.553	87.9%	Will a new land speed record be set by 2025?	Binary
-25.636	99.4%	How many people will be born in the United States in the year 2021?	Continuous
-27.480	97.6%	When will the COVID-19 epidemic subside in Russia?	Continuous
-28.264	97.0%	How much wind energy will be consumed globally, in terawatt-hours, in the calendar year 2023?	Continuous
-30.240	75.7%	Will a S&P500 tech boom surpass the dotcom bubble for one quarter or more before 2025?	Binary
-30.672	99.8%	If Biden becomes president, will there be an expansion of the Keystone Pipeline system of at least 100 km in length by the end of 2024?	Binary
-32.750	93.7%	Will the Conservative Party form the first government after the next UK general election?	Binary
-35.663	85.2%	If Joe Biden is elected president of the US in 2020, will the highest tax bracket be restored to its original 39.6% or higher before 2025?	Binary
-36.737	94.9%	What will the cost of energy of utility-scale solar photovoltaics be in 2022, in 2018 USD per kWh?	Continuous
-54.776	97.1%	What will be the gross receipts of the SENS Research Foundation in the 2021 tax year, as reported on their Form 990?	Continuous
-57.354	99.3%	Out of the 25 largest U.S companies by revenue, how many will file for bankruptcy between March 2020 to March 2024?	Continuous
-58.766	89.4%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Donald Trump)	Binary
-155.725	99.3%	Will a member of the Trump family be the Republican nominee for the US Presidency in 2024?	Binary