KnowName

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2021

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

4.96	Weighted Average Score
Score	Question	Question Type
38.909	Will Charity Entrepreneurship launch a family planning charity as part of its 2021 incubation program?	Binary
26.561	Will Tether collapse by the end of 2021?	Binary
25.416	Will the CDU continue to govern Germany after the 2021 elections?	Binary
19.970	Will the UK Conservative Party win the 2021 Batley and Spen by-election?	Binary
15.873	Short fuse: When will the Suez Canal blockage of March 2021 be cleared?	Continuous
15.623	Will Taylor Swift release a new album in 2021?	Binary
15.260	Will San Francisco issue a health order banning all restaurant indoor dining anytime between 2021-07-01 and 2021-12-31?	Binary
13.368	Will US poverty be higher in November 2021 than it was in November 2020?	Binary
13.067	Will Elizabeth Holmes be convicted on fraud charges related to Theranos before 2023?	Binary
11.574	Will there be a bilateral cease-fire of at least 30 days in the Tigray war before 2022?	Binary
7.846	Will Derek Chauvin be convicted of homicide by June 1 2021?	Binary
7.642	Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2022?	Binary
6.704	Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2021 NBA championship?	Binary
6.392	Will an Australian Federal Election be held in 2021?	Binary
5.729	Will Gavin Newsom win the 2021 California recall election?	Binary
5.349	Will Andrew Cuomo be governor of New York on June 30, 2021?	Binary
4.997	Will the UK experience a third wave of the coronavirus pandemic in 2021?	Binary
4.181	Will the U.S. default on its debt before 1 November 2021?	Binary
3.952	Will Sweden have an extra election before 2022?	Binary
3.721	[short fuse] Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl LV?	Binary
3.429	Will the Supreme Court grant a writ of certiorari to a case challenging the male-only draft as unconstitutional on the grounds of sex-discrimination by the end of 2021?	Binary
2.711	Will the US have more than 100,000 new daily COVID-19 cases before January 1, 2022?	Binary
2.533	Will Magnus Carlsen retain the Chess World Championship for a fifth time?	Binary
2.152	Will the Democratic candidate win the 2021 Virginia gubernatorial election?	Binary
2.058	Will Andrew M. Cuomo still be governor of New York on 31 December 2021?	Binary
0.953	Will United States military troops be in Afghanistan on 2021-10-7?	Binary
0.744	Will sufficient SARS-CoV-2 vaccine supply for all U.S. adults be allocated by 31 May 2021?	Binary
0.641	Will the price of Brent crude oil exceed $70 in 2021?	Binary
0.511	What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in May 2021?	Continuous
0.352	Will most of the Quad/Five Eyes countries boycott the 2022 Winter Olympics?	Binary
0.222	Will Pedro Castillo win the second round of the Peru 2021 presidential election?	Binary
0.060	Will there be a cease-fire or peace agreement in the Yemeni Civil War in 2021?	Binary
0.058	Will the University of California Berkeley be primarily in-person for Fall 2021?	Binary
0.048	Will Israel hold a second national election for Knesset in 2021?	Binary
0.038	Will the Israeli Knesset pass a budget by November 30th?	Binary
-0.010	By 2022, Will at least one abortion ban currently blocked by US federal courts go into effect?	Binary
-0.365	Will the 7-day rolling average of COVID vaccine doses administered in the US exceed 3M in 2021?	Binary
-2.247	Short-fuse: Will Kyle Rittenhouse be convicted on any pending felony charges in connection to the 2020 Kenosha unrest before 2022?	Binary
-3.367	Will the US unemployment rate stay above 5% through November 2021?	Binary
-4.352	Will Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel following the Israeli legislative election of 2021?	Binary
-10.102	[Short-fuse] Will Donald Trump cease to be President before the 2021/01/20 inauguration?	Binary
-39.879	Will the United States House of Representatives expel, censure, and/or reprimand a House Member before September 3, 2022?	Binary