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Duration:1 year
Time Period:2021
Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.
2.914Weighted Average Score
ScoreQuestionQuestion Type
32.838When will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the U.S. FDA for children under 12 years old?Continuous
25.961By 2021-11-01 will the US FDA approve a COVID-19 vaccine for children aged 5-11?Binary
22.506When will the percent of Virginia's population vaccinated with at least one dose reach 75%?Continuous
22.057Will Rep Marjorie Taylor Greene (R, GA-14) be expelled or resign by 2022?Binary
16.284What will be the cumulative number of people who are fully vaccinated against COVID-19 in the US on 2021-05-31?Continuous
4.014[Short-fuse] Will Donald Trump cease to be President before the 2021/01/20 inauguration?Binary
1.646When will 150 million Americans be vaccinated against COVID-19?Continuous
1.515Will Elizabeth Holmes be convicted on fraud charges related to Theranos before 2023?Binary
1.103Will the U.S. default on its debt before 1 November 2021?Binary
0.644Will Derek Chauvin be convicted of homicide by June 1 2021?Binary
0.153When will 25% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?Continuous
-12.141When will 50% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?Continuous