citizen

User

Duration:10 years

Time Period:2016-25

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

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12.31		Weighted Average Score
Score	Coverage	Question	Question Type
59.474	46.2%	When will an AI defeat one of the top-10 StarCraft 2 players?	Continuous
59.372	40.7%	If Joe Biden becomes president, what will the federal minimum wage be at the end of 2024?	Continuous
57.965	74.6%	Out of the 25 largest U.S companies by revenue, how many will file for bankruptcy between March 2020 to March 2024?	Continuous
49.140	81.0%	Will the federal minimum wage increase in the United States before 2025?	Binary
38.477	45.4%	If Conservatives win the 2019 UK general election, what will be mean UK broadband download speeds 5 years later?	Continuous
37.063	76.8%	When will the first course on wild animal welfare be taught at a top university?	Continuous
36.554	86.7%	Will Republicans control the US Senate after the 2022 election?	Binary
30.615	65.7%	What will be the average percentage change in property and casualty insurance premiums in Q1 2022?	Continuous
27.325	86.8%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Donald Trump)	Binary
26.316	70.1%	If Joe Biden is elected president of the US in 2020, will the highest tax bracket be restored to its original 39.6% or higher before 2025?	Binary
24.751	36.5%	Longbets series: will driverless cars be commercially available in Las Vegas, NV by May 27, 2024?	Binary
21.570	48.9%	Will FreeTON cryptocurrency project be successful?	Binary
19.945	42.5%	What will be the effective tax rate for a hypothetical 1 million dollar long-term capital gain in the United States on January 1st 2024?	Continuous
19.660	85.7%	In the 2024 US presidential election, how many states will use plurality voting methods to choose their electors?	Continuous
18.772	58.2%	What will be the largest number of digits of π to have ever been computed by December 31, 2025?	Continuous
17.390	75.4%	Will a member of the Trump family be the Republican nominee for the US Presidency in 2024?	Binary
16.734	87.1%	Will Nord Stream 2 be completed before 2025?	Binary
15.954	58.6%	Before 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that China deliberately misreported COVID-19 infections?	Binary
13.659	27.6%	How much money will be donated to ACE in 2021?	Continuous
13.534	64.4%	Will the Conservative Party form the first government after the next UK general election?	Binary
11.596	17.0%	Will Trump be indicted for obstruction of justice before 2026?	Binary
11.383	25.1%	How many billions of broiler-type chicks will hatch in the U.S., on average per year, over the 2022-2024 period?	Continuous
11.217	13.8%	When will the next episode of Hello Internet be released?	Continuous
11.166	21.8%	On December 1, 2023, how many companies worldwide will pledge uphold GAP standards for broiler chickens raised for meat?	Continuous
10.940	15.7%	If Biden becomes president, will the sentencing disparity between crack and powder cocaine be ended before 2024?	Binary
10.663	63.7%	Will the United States land humans on the moon again before 2025?	Binary
10.267	31.7%	Will Robin Hanson win a bet that the GPT line of language models will generate < $1Bn in customer revenue before 2025?	Binary
10.266	52.8%	Will Parker Solar Probe survive its 24 loops around the sun while getting just a few million miles away from the surface of our star?	Binary
9.180	39.4%	Will the USA's Labor Force Participation Rate be lower in 2023 than in 2018?	Binary
9.047	21.8%	Will lab-grown complex vital organs be used successfully in humans before 2025?	Binary
8.646	8.9%	When will Blue Origin send a paying customer to space?	Continuous
8.411	65.3%	What will be net migration to the United Kingdom in 2021?	Continuous
7.736	45.6%	Before 2023, will the United States CDC recommend that those who have already been vaccinated for SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) be vaccinated again due to a mutation in the virus?	Binary
7.295	55.3%	Will someone hold their breath for more than 30 minutes before 2025?	Binary
7.277	66.3%	Will any of the 20 most valuable public companies in the United States (As of January 2019) file for bankruptcy protection before 2025?	Binary
7.212	44.6%	Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act before 2024?	Binary
7.083	40.4%	Will no non-test nuclear weapons be detonated by January 1, 2024?	Binary
6.620	10.1%	When will US domestic passenger air travel return to 80% of pre-COVID-19 volumes?	Continuous
5.992	31.0%	Will Turkey be a NATO member continuously until January 1, 2025?	Binary
5.563	24.9%	How many intentionally genomic DNA altered animals will be approved for consumption by the FDA on July 31, 2025?	Continuous
5.409	13.4%	Will the number of deaths from antibiotic-resistant infections per year double by December 31, 2025?	Binary
5.347	36.3%	Will Emmanuel Macron be re-elected President of France in 2022?	Binary
5.111	75.1%	If Biden becomes president, will there be an expansion of the Keystone Pipeline system of at least 100 km in length by the end of 2024?	Binary
4.764	18.7%	When will be the next S&P 500 correction?	Continuous
4.697	50.1%	Will Scotland leave the United Kingdom before 2025?	Binary
4.230	66.7%	Will a Wealth Tax be passed if a Democrat is elected president in 2020?	Binary
3.650	51.7%	Will the Second Amendment of the United States Constitution be amended or repealed before 2025?	Binary
3.582	43.0%	Will any Member State leave the Eurozone before 2025?	Binary
3.449	5.6%	Will any Wirecard executive receive a custodial sentence for their involvement in the Wirecard collapse?	Binary
3.447	24.2%	Will any of the nonprofits incubated by Charity Entrepreneurship become a future ACE top or standout charity by Jan 1, 2025?	Binary
3.202	30.3%	Will NASA's SLS launch a person to the Moon before 2024?	Binary
3.152	49.2%	Will "best practice" in treating Coronavirus involve administering Vitamin D before the end of the pandemic?	Binary
2.831	29.4%	Will Mount Rushmore be intentionally destroyed or modified before 2025?	Binary
2.637	23.6%	Will our global atmospheric CO₂ concentration over the 2020 to 2023 period be on path to limit warming to 1.4°C by mid-century?	Binary
2.575	12.1%	Will the US NIH recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?	Binary
2.219	86.5%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Tucker Carlson)	Binary
1.643	2.3%	How many papers on AI ethics and algorithmic bias will be published by the end of 2022?	Continuous
1.589	5.8%	Will the UK's NHS recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?	Binary
1.364	23.8%	Will 100 kilotonnes of sulphur be injected into the atmosphere, as part of a single geoengineering effort, before 2024?	Binary
1.315	6.2%	Will Trump flee the United States?	Binary
1.239	1.7%	When will GTA VI be released in the US?	Continuous
1.000	20.6%	Will Cuba still be a communist state in 2023?	Binary
0.943	6.7%	Will Moderna, Pfizer/BioNTech, or Oxford/AstraZeneca start producing an updated vaccine targeting a SARS-CoV-2 variant before 2023?	Binary
0.846	26.1%	Will Angela Merkel remain chancellor after the next German federal elections?	Binary
0.787	4.3%	Will an official diagnosis of dementia be announced for Joe Biden before 2023?	Binary
0.644	1.8%	What will be the sentiment of Metaculus users with regard to self-resolving questions at the end of 2022?	Continuous
0.638	14.5%	Will the U.S. get rid of the penny by 2025?	Binary
0.613	13.4%	Will a 100 trillion parameter deep learning model be trained before 2026?	Binary
0.523	24.1%	Longbets series: By 2025 will the scientific evidence of a large bi-pedal great ape be sufficient to convince at least 50% of primatologists that a yeti/bigfoot-like creature exists?	Binary
0.401	7.6%	Will a charity primarily operating in China become an ACE Top Charity in 2021 or 2022?	Binary
0.367	65.1%	Before January 1, 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that COVID-19 more likely than not originated in a laboratory?	Binary
0.349	1.0%	Will World GDP grow every year until 2025?	Binary
0.290	18.6%	How much money will ACE estimate to have influenced in 2021?	Continuous
0.282	1.8%	Will the XENON1T experiment report a detection of dark matter or other new physics before 2023?	Binary
0.268	30.0%	Will the Dai stablecoin maintain a value of roughly $1 until July 2023?	Binary
0.243	1.7%	Will the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER) start operating by end of 2025?	Binary
0.199	23.4%	Will Xi Jinping keep leading China past 2022?	Binary
0.086	0.8%	Will the UK housing market crash before July 2023?	Binary
0.038	11.4%	How many laws will be enacted during the 117th United States Congress?	Continuous
0.008	0.5%	When will Ninja first lose the top spot as the most followed account on Twitch?	Continuous
0.006	0.3%	Will the Dutch medical consortium recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?	Binary
-0.011	1.2%	Will the United States test a nuclear weapon before 2023?	Binary
-0.020	0.4%	Will Nigel Farage become Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before 2023?	Binary
-0.056	1.0%	Will detection of phosphine in Venus atmosphere be independently reproduced by 2023?	Binary
-0.170	6.0%	A major United States earthquake by 2023?	Binary
-0.186	0.8%	How much will the total U.S. plant-based milk market be worth in the year ending in April 2023, in millions of USD?	Continuous
-0.321	1.2%	What will be the maximum number of COVID-19 cases reported in a single day in the United States before 2025?	Continuous
-0.346	2.6%	How many publicly traded U.S.- or EU-based plant-based meat producers will be valued at $1bn or more on October 4th, 2023?	Continuous
-0.452	79.5%	Will Lebanon come under French rule again before 2025?	Binary
-0.690	6.9%	Will Italy leave the Eurozone before 2023?	Binary
-0.763	43.3%	Will the identity of Bitcoin's founder, Satoshi Nakamoto, be revealed to the general public by 2025?	Binary
-0.766	6.7%	Which image classification benchmark will be most popular in the calendar year 2022?	Continuous
-1.166	95.2%	Will the 2024 US presidential election also be considered fraudulent by the losing party?	Binary
-1.272	90.0%	Will Kamala Harris be president before inauguration day 2025?	Binary
-1.503	57.8%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Kamala Harris)	Binary
-1.746	4.9%	Will Erin O'Toole become Prime Minister of Canada before 2024?	Binary
-1.865	14.1%	If the James Webb Space Telescope is launched, will it succeed in transmitting cosmological data?	Binary
-3.243	2.0%	What will total enrollment for recent US high school graduates be in US colleges in 2021?	Continuous
-3.397	64.5%	Will a new variant of SARS-COV-2 that, due to a mutation, can infect people who had immunity to a previous variant, cause more than 10M infections globally by the end of 2021?	Binary
-3.448	96.7%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Donald Trump)	Binary
-3.945	28.1%	Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party?	Continuous
-3.972	91.6%	Will Republicans win control of the US House of Representatives in 2022?	Binary
-4.901	24.0%	When will the VIX index climb above 50?	Continuous
-5.309	77.3%	Will Medicare for all be passed if a Democrat is elected president in 2020?	Binary
-6.555	72.2%	Bitcoin Extremes: Will the value of 1 bitcoin fall to $1,000 or less before 2025?	Binary
-8.147	43.2%	What fraction of England’s population will live in London at the end of 2022?	Continuous
-8.709	65.0%	Will Mike Pence be elected president of the United States in 2024?	Binary
-9.702	51.6%	Will the current European Commission propose a European Union directive or regulation banning all types of caged-housing for egg-laying hens before October 31, 2024?	Binary
-10.332	16.8%	What percentage of Legislative Assembly seats will the Australian Labor Party win at the next Victorian state election?	Continuous
-11.087	26.5%	As of July 1, 2022, when will top forecasters expect the first Artificial General Intelligence to be developed and demonstrated?	Continuous
-11.451	31.8%	Will a S&P500 tech boom surpass the dotcom bubble for one quarter or more before 2025?	Binary
-12.451	25.7%	Will the Time person of the year in 2024 be the US president-elect?	Binary
-12.745	37.3%	How many people will be born in the United States in the year 2021?	Continuous
-15.406	51.8%	Will Metaculus release a dedicated mobile app before 2023?	Binary
-16.528	15.4%	How much forest coverage loss will occur in Brazil over the three-year period starting from 2020?	Continuous
-20.922	40.6%	Will WeWork file for bankruptcy protection before January 1, 2025?	Binary
-23.965	63.0%	What will be Donald Trump's net worth in 2024?	Continuous
-26.119	66.3%	What will be the EU GDP growth (year on year) in 2021?	Continuous
-30.732	71.9%	Bitcoin Extremes: Will 1 bitcoin be worth $100,000 or more before 2025?	Binary
-44.425	99.6%	When will the next US Supreme Court vacancy arise?	Continuous