WuTangName

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2021

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

6.011	Weighted Average Score
Score	Question	Question Type
73.168	Will the United States House of Representatives expel, censure, and/or reprimand a House Member before September 3, 2022?	Binary
41.958	Will ≥3 million Americans be locked down because of B117 by March 11th, 2021?	Binary
40.423	Will the CDU continue to govern Germany after the 2021 elections?	Binary
29.452	Will the UK experience a third wave of the coronavirus pandemic in 2021?	Binary
27.906	Will NASA issue a second fully-funded award for its Human Landing System contract before 2022?	Binary
26.299	Will Derek Chauvin be convicted of homicide by June 1 2021?	Binary
17.943	When will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine receive full BLA approval by the U.S. FDA?	Continuous
17.871	[Short fuse] How many new coronavirus cases will the United States report for the week ending August 14th?	Continuous
17.366	When will the third SpaceX Starship flight be?	Continuous
15.639	[short fuse] Will Trump be impeached and convicted by the Senate in 2021?	Binary
15.365	Will President Trump be relieved of his duties under section four of the Twenty-fifth Amendment before inauguration day?	Binary
10.589	When will the James Webb telescope be launched?	Continuous
7.341	Will at least 5 Republican Congresspeople join another party before 2022?	Binary
6.951	Will the UK have a 7 day rolling average above 2,000 covid deaths before June?	Binary
4.271	Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2022?	Binary
3.991	Will the U.S. default on its debt before 1 November 2021?	Binary
3.570	[Short Fuse] Will SpaceX's SN10 Starship prototype vehicle land successfully?	Binary
3.123	[short-fuse] By 2022, will the US Senate confirm Biden's nominees for Treasury Secretary, Secretary of State, Defense Secretary, and Attorney General?	Binary
2.306	[Short-fuse] Will Donald Trump cease to be President before the 2021/01/20 inauguration?	Binary
2.291	Will the US have more than 1000 daily COVID-19 deaths (7-day rolling average) before 1 January 2022?	Binary
1.961	Will the US have more than 100,000 new daily COVID-19 cases before January 1, 2022?	Binary
1.070	Will at least 2 US diplomats die or be captured in the evacuation of Kabul?	Binary
0.992	Will Joe Biden be officially inaugurated as President in-person outside the US capitol on January 20th, 2021?	Binary
0.730	When will the second SpaceX Starship flight be?	Continuous
0.545	When will there be a verdict in the Derek Chauvin trial?	Continuous
0.289	Will GameStop (GME) reach a stock price of $1000 by 11:59 pm, 20 February 2021?	Binary
0.279	When will the fifth SpaceX Starship flight be?	Continuous
0.214	Will Andrew Cuomo be governor of New York on June 30, 2021?	Binary
0.095	Will all local health districts in Virginia either be in declining or plateau trajectories OR report fewer than 5 cases per 100k residents per week for 3 consecutive weeks prior to 1 September 2021?	Binary
-0.116	When will a SpaceX Super Heavy Booster fly?	Continuous
-0.171	Will the University of California Berkeley be primarily in-person for Fall 2021?	Binary
-3.266	Will the US have more than 200,000 daily COVID-19 cases (7-day average) before January 1, 2022?	Binary
-16.311	Will the US experience a 4th wave of COVID before June 1, 2021?	Binary
-29.822	Will Gavin Newsom win the 2021 California recall election?	Binary
-37.612	How many billions of dollars will hurricanes in 2021 cost the US?	Continuous
-46.279	What will be the number of new confirmed positive COVID-19 cases in the US beginning on 2021-01-24 and ending on 2021-01-30 (inclusive)?	Continuous