MarcosO

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2025

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

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34.7		Weighted Average Score
Score	Coverage	Question	Question Type
117.637	99.6%	What will India's Consumer Food Price Index provisional year-over-year inflation rate be for February 2025?	Continuous
111.225	98.4%	How many acres will be reported as burned in California during 2025 on March 4, 2025?	Continuous
103.572	92.6%	Will OpenAI publicly release the full o3 model before March 28, 2025? (No) → What will the closing value of NVIDIA's stock price be on March 28, 2025?	Continuous
97.805	99.9%	What will bitcoin's dominance in the cryptocurrency market be on March 30, 2025?	Continuous
92.210	72.4%	What will the total market cap of the Magnificent Seven be on March 28, 2025?	Continuous
88.685	95.8%	What percent of the European Union's gas storage capacity will be full on February 12, 2025?	Continuous
87.933	98.0%	How many southwest land border encounters will be reported by US Customs and Border Protection for February 2025?	Continuous
83.134	87.5%	What will the impact probability (in percent) of the asteroid 2024 YR4 be on March 27, 2025?	Continuous
80.897	93.9%	On March 28, 2025, what will be the exchange rate of the US dollar to the Canadian dollar, the Mexican peso, and the Chinese yuan? (USD/MXN)	Continuous
80.312	81.4%	What will the 2-year U.S. Treasury note yield be on March 19, 2025?	Continuous
72.991	99.8%	Will OpenAI publicly release the full o3 model before March 28, 2025?	Binary
72.080	91.9%	How many subscribers will the MrBeast YouTube channel have on March 30, 2025?	Multiple Choice
70.297	70.5%	What will the ratio of the price of 1 bitcoin to 1 troy ounce of gold be on March 30, 2025?	Continuous
67.211	63.6%	What will the number of active US drilling rigs be on March 28, 2025?	Multiple Choice
65.477	99.3%	Will the debt ceiling be raised or suspended in the US before March 17, 2025?	Binary
64.517	77.0%	What will be Nigeria's year-on-year inflation for February 2025?	Continuous
62.804	99.2%	What ranking will RedNote have in the Apple app store in the Social Networking category on February 17, 2025?	Continuous
61.216	94.1%	What will the first reported earnings per share after June 2025 be for the following companies? (TSLA)	Continuous
58.210	93.1%	How much will "Captain America: Brave New World," "The Monkey," and "The Alto Knights" earn in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekend? (The Alto Knights)	Continuous
57.809	93.9%	On March 28, 2025, what will be the exchange rate of the US dollar to the Canadian dollar, the Mexican peso, and the Chinese yuan? (USD/CAD)	Continuous
57.430	80.8%	What cumulative percentage of the geographic area of Texas will be classified as under moderate drought or worse (D1-D4) as of March 18, 2025?	Continuous
57.304	64.0%	What will the closing value of NVIDIA's stock price be on March 28, 2025?	Continuous
56.040	92.6%	What will be the ending value of the ICE BofA US High Yield Option-Adjusted Spread for the following biweekly periods? (Jul 21 - Aug 1)	Continuous
54.487	70.7%	What will be the maximum daily average CO₂ reported by the Mauna Loa Observatory for March 1-25, 2025?	Continuous
54.481	97.7%	How many parties will be in the next German parliament?	Multiple Choice
53.239	98.1%	What will Japan's preliminary net tourist inflow be for February 2025?	Continuous
51.695	67.4%	How many players will Monster Hunter Wilds have simultaneously online on March 21, 2025?	Continuous
48.973	92.8%	What will the first reported revenues after June 2025 be for the following companies? (MSFT)	Continuous
46.899	99.0%	What will the first reported revenues after March 2025 be for the following companies? (AAPL)	Continuous
45.423	86.8%	What will be the ending value of the ICE BofA US High Yield Option-Adjusted Spread for the following biweekly periods? (Aug 4 - Aug 15)	Continuous
45.243	82.4%	What will be the lowest seed team to make it to the Elite Eight of the NCAA's 2025 March Madness women's basketball tournament?	Multiple Choice
44.776	57.1%	How much will the 2025 reconciliation bill decrease total Medicaid spending from Fiscal Year (FY) 2025 to FY 2034?	Continuous
44.400	94.1%	What will the first reported revenues after June 2025 be for the following companies? (TSLA)	Continuous
44.203	99.8%	Will Gold Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (Apr 21 - May 2)	Binary
43.540	99.8%	Will a fourth person solve a Rubik's cube in less than 3.44 seconds before March 31, 2025?	Binary
42.925	89.4%	What will be the total number of aircraft violating Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) between February 15 and March 15, 2025?	Continuous
42.795	72.9%	What will the flash consumer confidence in the Euro Area be for March 2025?	Multiple Choice
42.134	63.0%	What will be the highest percentage change in stock price among Hermes, Dior, and LVMH during the 2025 Paris Fashion Week Womenswear Fall/Winter?	Continuous
41.378	89.5%	What will be NVIDIA's forward guidance in their Q2 FY2026 earnings release? (GAAP Gross Margin)	Continuous
40.451	91.7%	How many total confirmed human cases of H5 bird flu will CDC report in the United States as of March 31, 2025?	Multiple Choice
40.341	99.1%	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over the following weeks in Q2, 2025? (Apr 21 - Apr 25)	Continuous
39.942	99.8%	What will the first reported earnings per share after March 2025 be for the following companies? (AMZN)	Continuous
39.284	91.9%	Will the winner of the rugby Men’s 2025 Six Nations Championship have at least 5 more total competition points than the second place?	Binary
39.259	86.7%	How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Apple's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Aug 4 - Aug 15)	Continuous
36.770	98.7%	Will Gold Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (May 19 - May 30)	Binary
35.451	99.0%	What will the first reported revenues after March 2025 be for the following companies? (AMZN)	Continuous
35.264	99.9%	What will the first reported earnings per share after March 2025 be for the following companies? (NVDA)	Continuous
34.839	86.8%	How much will Crude Oil Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Aug 4 - Aug 15)	Continuous
34.710	99.0%	Will the eighth Starship integrated flight test reach an altitude of 160 kilometers before March 10, 2025?	Binary
34.423	93.3%	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over the following biweekly periods in Q3, 2025? (July 21 - Aug 1)	Continuous
34.244	97.1%	Will the following companies be added to the S&P 500 before June 30, 2025? (ARES)	Binary
33.426	86.7%	How much will Gold Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Aug 4 - Aug 15)	Continuous
33.198	98.7%	Will Gold Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (June 16 - June 27)	Binary
33.140	98.7%	Will Gold Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (June 2 - June 13)	Binary
32.938	93.3%	How much will Crude Oil Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Jul 21 - Aug 1)	Continuous
32.274	64.6%	What will the national average price of eggs (in USD per dozen) be in the United States on March 26, 2025?	Continuous
32.198	99.5%	What will the first reported revenues after March 2025 be for the following companies? (NVDA)	Continuous
31.924	87.9%	Will more than 15 million farmed birds be affected (depopulated or killed) in the United States due to bird flu from February 15, 2025 to March 15, 2025?	Binary
30.914	92.9%	What will the first reported earnings per share after June 2025 be for the following companies? (MSFT)	Continuous
30.738	97.1%	Will the following companies be added to the S&P 500 before June 30, 2025? (MSTR)	Binary
30.428	99.4%	Will François Bayrou step down or be removed from his position as Prime Minister of France before March 31, 2025?	Binary
30.414	96.6%	Will Gold Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (May 5 - May 16)	Binary
30.327	97.1%	Will the following companies be added to the S&P 500 before June 30, 2025? (TTD)	Binary
29.321	99.8%	What will the first reported earnings per share after March 2025 be for the following companies? (MSFT)	Continuous
28.772	99.0%	What will the first reported revenues after March 2025 be for the following companies? (MSFT)	Continuous
27.744	98.5%	What will Nvidia's earnings per share be for Q4 FY2025 (the quarter ending January 26, 2025)?	Continuous
27.647	89.5%	What will be NVIDIA's forward guidance in their Q2 FY2026 earnings release? (Revenue)	Continuous
27.276	99.6%	Will Crude Oil Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 weeks? (Apr 14 - Apr 25)	Binary
26.603	55.1%	What will be the value of the CNN Fear & Greed Index for the following dates in Q2, 2025? (May 16)	Continuous
25.912	92.8%	How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Microsoft's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Jul 21 - Aug 1)	Continuous
24.972	95.0%	What will the first reported revenues after June 2025 be for the following companies? (AMD)	Continuous
23.874	96.6%	Will Nasdaq-100 Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (May 5 - May 16)	Binary
23.067	92.5%	What will be the ending value of the UST 10Y Yield for the following biweekly periods? (Jul 21 - Aug 1)	Continuous
21.828	78.1%	Will the combined weekly percentage of emergency department visits in the United States due to COVID-19, RSV, and influenza fall below 2.7% on any date before March 16, 2025?	Binary
21.814	70.7%	What will be the annual rate of new US building permits issued in February 2025 for privately-owned housing units?	Continuous
21.807	83.6%	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (MSFT > AAPL, June 2025)	Binary
21.496	99.1%	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (MSFT > AAPL, May 2025)	Binary
20.333	81.9%	Will Argentina's month-over-month inflation rate in February 2025 be below 3.0%?	Binary
19.833	82.1%	How much will "Captain America: Brave New World," "The Monkey," and "The Alto Knights" earn in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekend? (The Monkey)	Continuous
19.786	98.8%	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over the following weeks in Q2, 2025? (May 19 - May 23)	Continuous
19.595	99.1%	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (NVDA > AAPL, May 2025)	Binary
19.487	64.5%	How many artists in the top 10 of the Billboard Artist 100 in the last week of March will be new to the top 10 that week?	Multiple Choice
19.437	99.8%	Will Nasdaq-100 Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (Apri 21 - May 2)	Binary
18.616	84.1%	Will more than 15 million farmed birds be affected (depopulated or killed) in the United States due to bird flu from February 15, 2025 to March 15, 2025? (No) → What will the national average price of eggs (in USD per dozen) be in the United States on March 26, 2025?	Continuous
18.514	49.5%	What will US airline passenger volume be for these weeks in February and March 2025, according to the TSA? (Mar 10, 2025 to Mar 16, 2025)	Continuous
18.376	98.7%	Will Nasdaq-100 Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (June 16 - June 27)	Binary
17.291	89.5%	What will be NVIDIA's forward guidance in their Q2 FY2026 earnings release? (GAAP Operating Expenses)	Continuous
17.232	71.9%	By what distance, measured in horse lengths, will the first place finisher win the 2025 Cheltenham Gold Cup?	Multiple Choice
16.476	96.6%	Will Crude Oil Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 weeks? (May 5 - May 16)	Binary
16.384	83.6%	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (AMZN > WMT, June 2025)	Binary
16.343	24.2%	What will be the electric vehicle sales share of light duty vehicles in the United States in February 2025?	Continuous
16.125	42.2%	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over the following weeks in Q2, 2025? (May 5 - May 9)	Continuous
15.853	98.7%	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over the following weeks in Q2, 2025? (June 2 - June 6)	Continuous
14.543	90.6%	Who will win the Liberal Party of Canada's leadership election to replace Justin Trudeau as Prime Minister of Canada?	Multiple Choice
14.438	93.2%	How much will Gold Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Jul 21 - Aug 1)	Continuous
14.223	99.1%	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (AMZN > WMT, May 2025)	Binary
13.334	89.7%	What will the first reported revenues after June 2025 be for the following companies? (NVDA)	Continuous
11.817	83.6%	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (NVDA > AAPL, June 2025)	Binary
11.810	86.8%	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over the following biweekly periods in Q3, 2025? (Aug 4 - Aug 15)	Continuous
11.494	93.2%	What will the first reported earnings per share after June 2025 be for the following companies? (AAPL)	Continuous
11.414	98.7%	What will be the value of the CNN Fear & Greed Index for the following dates in Q2, 2025? (June 13)	Continuous
11.335	32.4%	What will US airline passenger volume be for these weeks in February and March 2025, according to the TSA? (Mar 3, 2025 to Mar 9, 2025)	Continuous
11.212	99.1%	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (NVDA > MSFT, May 2025)	Binary
10.786	17.3%	Will the following Trump Cabinet nominees withdraw or be voted down in the Senate before March 31, 2025? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (Secretary of Health and Human Services))	Binary
10.351	98.7%	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over the following weeks in Q2, 2025? (June 16 - June 20)	Continuous
10.149	89.7%	What will the first reported earnings per share after June 2025 be for the following companies? (NVDA)	Continuous
10.128	13.9%	Will the TikTok ban be in effect in the United States on January 20, 2025?	Binary
10.122	27.2%	Which country will the winner of the 2025 Tokyo Marathon be from?	Multiple Choice
9.585	93.3%	What will the first reported earnings per share after June 2025 be for the following companies? (META)	Continuous
9.050	15.5%	Will the following Trump Cabinet nominees withdraw or be voted down in the Senate before March 31, 2025? (Tulsi Gabbard (Director of National Intelligence))	Binary
8.748	44.5%	What will the first reported earnings per share after June 2025 be for the following companies? (AMZN)	Continuous
8.460	86.7%	What will be the ending value of the UST 10Y Yield for the following biweekly periods? (Aug 4 - Aug 15)	Continuous
7.993	32.7%	Will Brazil's unemployment rate be below 6.2% in February 2025?	Binary
7.698	98.7%	Will Nasdaq-100 Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (June 2 - June 13)	Binary
5.711	93.2%	How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Apple's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Jul 21 - Aug 1)	Continuous
5.693	98.8%	What will be the value of the CNN Fear & Greed Index for the following dates in Q2, 2025? (May 30)	Continuous
4.830	31.7%	Which of these changes to the 45X clean energy manufacturing tax credit of the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act will occur before January 1, 2026? (FEOC exclusion)	Binary
4.499	98.7%	What will be the value of the CNN Fear & Greed Index for the following dates in Q2, 2025? (June 27)	Continuous
4.292	98.7%	Will Crude Oil Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 weeks? (May 19 - May 30)	Binary
3.605	98.7%	Will Crude Oil Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 weeks? (Jun 16 - Jun 27)	Binary
3.558	70.2%	How much will "Captain America: Brave New World," "The Monkey," and "The Alto Knights" earn in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekend? (Captain America: Brave New World)	Continuous
2.907	86.8%	How much will Nasdaq-100 Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Aug 4 - Aug 15)	Continuous
1.754	98.7%	Will Crude Oil Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 weeks? (Jun 2 - Jun 13)	Binary
1.484	44.5%	What will the first reported revenues after June 2025 be for the following companies? (AMZN)	Continuous
1.214	7.6%	When in 2025 will President Donald Trump sign into a law a reconciliation bill?	Multiple Choice
1.118	93.2%	How much will Nasdaq-100 Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Jul 21 - Aug 1)	Continuous
-0.519	83.6%	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (NVDA > MSFT, June 2025)	Binary
-2.090	93.2%	What will the first reported revenues after June 2025 be for the following companies? (AAPL)	Continuous
-2.576	14.0%	Will the 2017 TCJA Individual Tax Cuts Be Extended Using a "Current Policy" Baseline in Senate Reconciliation?	Binary
-3.399	9.2%	Will legislation enacted before January 1, 2026 eliminate the transferability of any of these clean energy tax credits (§48E ITC, §45Y PTC, §45X AMPC)?	Binary
-8.216	23.1%	Will the following companies be added to the S&P 500 before June 30, 2025? (COIN)	Binary
-10.370	31.4%	What will happen next with respect to the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act's $7,500 tax credit for US individuals who purchase an EV (30D)?	Multiple Choice
-12.090	98.8%	Will Nasdaq-100 Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (May 19 - May 30)	Binary
-16.769	99.8%	What will the first reported earnings per share after March 2025 be for the following companies? (AAPL)	Continuous
-20.164	86.7%	How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Microsoft's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Aug 4 - Aug 15)	Continuous
-22.817	99.1%	What will be the value of the CNN Fear & Greed Index for the following dates in Q2, 2025? (May 2)	Continuous
-27.367	93.3%	What will the first reported revenues after June 2025 be for the following companies? (META)	Continuous
-56.767	95.0%	What will the first reported earnings per share after June 2025 be for the following companies? (AMD)	Continuous
-143.702	93.4%	Will the following Trump Cabinet nominees withdraw or be voted down in the Senate before March 31, 2025? (Any of Trump’s Other Nominees (See Fine Print))	Binary