Sebastian_DiB

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2025

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

We sometimes recruit upstanding members of the community who are excellent question writers to become paid moderators.

Fill out our expression of interest form if you would like to be considered.

33.72		Weighted Average Score
Score	Coverage	Question	Question Type
101.328	71.6%	How many southwest land border encounters will be reported by US Customs and Border Protection for February 2025?	Continuous
84.073	75.5%	What will be the total number of aircraft violating Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) between February 15 and March 15, 2025?	Continuous
79.652	86.2%	On March 28, 2025, what will be the exchange rate of the US dollar to the Canadian dollar, the Mexican peso, and the Chinese yuan? (USD/MXN)	Continuous
77.446	99.5%	What will the number of active US drilling rigs be on March 28, 2025?	Multiple Choice
72.636	53.4%	What will the closing value of NVIDIA's stock price be on March 28, 2025?	Continuous
71.343	97.3%	How many parties will be in the next German parliament?	Multiple Choice
70.681	99.6%	Will OpenAI publicly release the full o3 model before March 28, 2025?	Binary
68.179	99.5%	What will be the lowest seed team to make it to the Elite Eight of the NCAA's 2025 March Madness women's basketball tournament?	Multiple Choice
65.566	88.8%	How many acres will be reported as burned in California during 2025 on March 4, 2025?	Continuous
64.869	98.5%	What will the 2-year U.S. Treasury note yield be on March 19, 2025?	Continuous
62.340	85.4%	How many subscribers will the MrBeast YouTube channel have on March 30, 2025?	Multiple Choice
61.911	99.6%	Will the debt ceiling be raised or suspended in the US before March 17, 2025?	Binary
61.446	88.4%	What will the total market cap of the Magnificent Seven be on March 28, 2025?	Continuous
60.511	84.2%	How much will "Captain America: Brave New World," "The Monkey," and "The Alto Knights" earn in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekend? (The Alto Knights)	Continuous
59.616	97.6%	What percent of the European Union's gas storage capacity will be full on February 12, 2025?	Continuous
59.011	87.8%	What will India's Consumer Food Price Index provisional year-over-year inflation rate be for February 2025?	Continuous
53.864	99.3%	What will the impact probability (in percent) of the asteroid 2024 YR4 be on March 27, 2025?	Continuous
53.513	95.8%	What ranking will RedNote have in the Apple app store in the Social Networking category on February 17, 2025?	Continuous
53.459	68.5%	What will be Nigeria's year-on-year inflation for February 2025?	Continuous
50.517	62.5%	Will more than 15 million farmed birds be affected (depopulated or killed) in the United States due to bird flu from February 15, 2025 to March 15, 2025? (No) → What will the national average price of eggs (in USD per dozen) be in the United States on March 26, 2025?	Continuous
45.744	98.4%	Will the eighth Starship integrated flight test reach an altitude of 160 kilometers before March 10, 2025?	Binary
45.274	98.3%	Which country will the winner of the 2025 Tokyo Marathon be from?	Multiple Choice
42.251	91.4%	Will Gold Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (June 16 - June 27)	Binary
41.553	86.6%	What will bitcoin's dominance in the cryptocurrency market be on March 30, 2025?	Continuous
41.125	81.7%	Will the winner of the rugby Men’s 2025 Six Nations Championship have at least 5 more total competition points than the second place?	Binary
40.809	80.7%	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (NVDA > MSFT, June 2025)	Binary
37.998	99.5%	How many total confirmed human cases of H5 bird flu will CDC report in the United States as of March 31, 2025?	Multiple Choice
37.050	97.9%	What will Japan's preliminary net tourist inflow be for February 2025?	Continuous
36.677	68.1%	What will Nvidia's earnings per share be for Q4 FY2025 (the quarter ending January 26, 2025)?	Continuous
35.663	98.8%	Will more than 15 million farmed birds be affected (depopulated or killed) in the United States due to bird flu from February 15, 2025 to March 15, 2025?	Binary
35.411	89.4%	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (AMZN > WMT, May 2025)	Binary
34.297	89.4%	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (MSFT > AAPL, May 2025)	Binary
34.189	80.7%	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (AMZN > WMT, June 2025)	Binary
32.666	31.8%	How much will "Captain America: Brave New World," "The Monkey," and "The Alto Knights" earn in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekend? (Captain America: Brave New World)	Continuous
31.710	86.9%	Will a fourth person solve a Rubik's cube in less than 3.44 seconds before March 31, 2025?	Binary
30.977	99.6%	Will François Bayrou step down or be removed from his position as Prime Minister of France before March 31, 2025?	Binary
29.943	98.8%	What will the first reported revenues after March 2025 be for the following companies? (MSFT)	Continuous
29.846	91.4%	Will Nasdaq-100 Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (June 16 - June 27)	Binary
28.320	63.0%	What will the flash consumer confidence in the Euro Area be for March 2025?	Multiple Choice
28.287	80.7%	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (NVDA > AAPL, June 2025)	Binary
26.979	83.3%	Will the following companies be added to the S&P 500 before June 30, 2025? (TTD)	Binary
26.690	89.4%	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (NVDA > AAPL, May 2025)	Binary
26.352	98.2%	Will Brazil's unemployment rate be below 6.2% in February 2025?	Binary
26.276	81.0%	How many artists in the top 10 of the Billboard Artist 100 in the last week of March will be new to the top 10 that week?	Multiple Choice
25.902	83.3%	Will the following companies be added to the S&P 500 before June 30, 2025? (MSTR)	Binary
24.724	98.4%	What cumulative percentage of the geographic area of Texas will be classified as under moderate drought or worse (D1-D4) as of March 18, 2025?	Continuous
24.616	98.8%	Will the combined weekly percentage of emergency department visits in the United States due to COVID-19, RSV, and influenza fall below 2.7% on any date before March 16, 2025?	Binary
23.087	91.4%	Will Crude Oil Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 weeks? (Jun 16 - Jun 27)	Binary
22.126	99.2%	By what distance, measured in horse lengths, will the first place finisher win the 2025 Cheltenham Gold Cup?	Multiple Choice
22.029	83.3%	Will the following companies be added to the S&P 500 before June 30, 2025? (ARES)	Binary
21.820	84.8%	What will the ratio of the price of 1 bitcoin to 1 troy ounce of gold be on March 30, 2025?	Continuous
21.765	98.9%	Will Argentina's month-over-month inflation rate in February 2025 be below 3.0%?	Binary
17.518	38.5%	What will be the highest percentage change in stock price among Hermes, Dior, and LVMH during the 2025 Paris Fashion Week Womenswear Fall/Winter?	Continuous
17.497	59.9%	What will be the annual rate of new US building permits issued in February 2025 for privately-owned housing units?	Continuous
17.012	80.7%	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (MSFT > AAPL, June 2025)	Binary
16.733	90.6%	Who will win the Liberal Party of Canada's leadership election to replace Justin Trudeau as Prime Minister of Canada?	Multiple Choice
16.507	48.1%	How much will Gold Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in these biweekly periods of Q1 2026? (Jan 5 - Jan 16)	Continuous
12.998	77.3%	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over the following weeks in Q2, 2025? (May 19 - May 23)	Continuous
12.113	77.3%	What will be the value of the CNN Fear & Greed Index for the following dates in Q2, 2025? (May 30)	Continuous
11.668	37.4%	What will the first reported revenues after March 2025 be for the following companies? (NVDA)	Continuous
11.663	42.8%	What will the first reported earnings per share after March 2025 be for the following companies? (NVDA)	Continuous
9.417	24.4%	What will be the electric vehicle sales share of light duty vehicles in the United States in February 2025?	Continuous
9.121	48.1%	How much will Nasdaq-100 Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures in these biweekly periods of Q1 2026? (Jan 5 - Jan 16)	Continuous
7.651	23.9%	What will US airline passenger volume be for these weeks in February and March 2025, according to the TSA? (Mar 10, 2025 to Mar 16, 2025)	Continuous
7.583	48.1%	What will be the ending value of the UST 10Y Yield for these biweekly periods of Q1 2026? (Jan 5 - Jan 16)	Continuous
7.512	86.7%	Will OpenAI publicly release the full o3 model before March 28, 2025? (No) → What will the closing value of NVIDIA's stock price be on March 28, 2025?	Continuous
7.122	12.4%	Will the following Trump Cabinet nominees withdraw or be voted down in the Senate before March 31, 2025? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (Secretary of Health and Human Services))	Binary
7.035	48.1%	How much will Crude Oil Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in these biweekly periods of Q1 2026? (Jan 5 - Jan 16)	Continuous
7.033	48.1%	What will be the ending value of the ICE BofA US High Yield Option-Adjusted Spread for these biweekly periods of Q1 2026? (Jan 5 - Jan 16)	Continuous
6.984	37.5%	Will Crude Oil Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 weeks? (May 19 - May 30)	Binary
6.751	77.3%	Will Nasdaq-100 Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (May 19 - May 30)	Binary
6.570	14.3%	How much will Crude Oil Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in these biweekly periods of Q4 2025? (Nov 24 - Dec 5)	Continuous
6.553	14.3%	How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Apple's in these biweekly periods of Q4 2025? (Dec 8 - Dec 19)	Continuous
5.786	20.1%	Will Novak Djokovic win the Australian Open?	Binary
5.702	37.5%	Will Gold Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (May 19 - May 30)	Binary
5.398	10.6%	Will the following Trump Cabinet nominees withdraw or be voted down in the Senate before March 31, 2025? (Tulsi Gabbard (Director of National Intelligence))	Binary
4.548	14.3%	How much will Gold Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in these biweekly periods of Q4 2025? (Nov 24 - Dec 5)	Continuous
4.174	48.1%	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over these biweekly periods in Q1 2026? (Jan 5 - Jan 16)	Continuous
3.488	48.1%	How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Apple's in these biweekly periods of Q1 2026? (Jan 5 - Jan 16)	Continuous
3.439	14.3%	How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Microsoft's in these biweekly periods of Q4 2025? (Nov 24 - Dec 5)	Continuous
2.894	9.9%	Will Gold Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (June 2 - June 13)	Binary
2.295	11.9%	What will the first reported revenues after September 2025 be for the following companies? (META)	Continuous
1.984	9.9%	Will Crude Oil Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 weeks? (Jun 2 - Jun 13)	Binary
1.757	14.3%	How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Apple's in these biweekly periods of Q4 2025? (Nov 24 - Dec 5)	Continuous
1.679	86.2%	On March 28, 2025, what will be the exchange rate of the US dollar to the Canadian dollar, the Mexican peso, and the Chinese yuan? (USD/CAD)	Continuous
1.569	73.4%	What will the national average price of eggs (in USD per dozen) be in the United States on March 26, 2025?	Continuous
1.509	9.3%	Will the following companies be added to the S&P 500 before June 30, 2025? (COIN)	Binary
1.407	8.2%	What will the first reported revenues after September 2025 be for the following companies? (AMZN)	Continuous
1.385	9.9%	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over the following weeks in Q2, 2025? (June 2 - June 6)	Continuous
1.240	8.2%	What will the first reported revenues after September 2025 be for the following companies? (AAPL)	Continuous
0.956	14.3%	What will be the ending value of the ICE BofA US High Yield Option-Adjusted Spread for these biweekly periods of Q4 2025? (Dec 8 - Dec 19)	Continuous
0.831	11.9%	What will the first reported revenues after September 2025 be for the following companies? (MSFT)	Continuous
0.657	9.9%	Will Nasdaq-100 Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (June 2 - June 13)	Binary
0.434	5.9%	What will the first reported revenues after September 2025 be for the following companies? (AMD)	Continuous
0.351	2.2%	What will the first reported revenues after September 2025 be for the following companies? (TSLA)	Continuous
0.194	14.3%	What will be the ending value of the UST 10Y Yield for these biweekly periods of Q4 2025? (Nov 24 - Dec 5)	Continuous
0.005	0.0%	What will the first reported revenues after September 2025 be for the following companies? (NVDA)	Continuous
0.002	7.1%	How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Microsoft's in these biweekly periods of Q4 2025? (Nov 10 - Nov 21)	Continuous
-0.089	18.5%	Will the following companies be added to the S&P 500 before 2026? (MSTR)	Binary
-0.093	48.1%	How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Microsoft's in these biweekly periods of Q1 2026? (Jan 5 - Jan 16)	Continuous
-0.699	14.3%	How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Microsoft's in these biweekly periods of Q4 2025? (Dec 8 - Dec 19)	Continuous
-0.772	7.1%	How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Apple's in these biweekly periods of Q4 2025? (Nov 10 - Nov 21)	Continuous
-1.072	91.4%	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over the following weeks in Q2, 2025? (June 16 - June 20)	Continuous
-1.499	14.3%	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over these biweekly periods in Q4 2025? (Nov 24 - Dec 5)	Continuous
-1.679	14.3%	What will be the ending value of the ICE BofA US High Yield Option-Adjusted Spread for these biweekly periods of Q4 2025? (Nov 24 - Dec 5)	Continuous
-6.085	14.3%	How much will Nasdaq-100 Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in these biweekly periods of Q4 2025? (Dec 8 - Dec 19)	Continuous
-7.784	18.5%	Will the following companies be added to the S&P 500 before 2026? (ARES)	Binary
-8.502	14.3%	How much will Gold Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in these biweekly periods of Q4 2025? (Dec 8 - Dec 19)	Continuous
-13.618	14.3%	How much will Crude Oil Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in these biweekly periods of Q4 2025? (Dec 8 - Dec 19)	Continuous
-14.464	15.6%	Will the following companies be added to the S&P 500 before 2026? (CVNA)	Binary
-15.886	99.5%	How many players will Monster Hunter Wilds have simultaneously online on March 21, 2025?	Continuous
-19.920	14.3%	How much will Nasdaq-100 Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in these biweekly periods of Q4 2025? (Nov 24 - Dec 5)	Continuous
-22.970	14.3%	What will be the ending value of the UST 10Y Yield for these biweekly periods of Q4 2025? (Dec 8 - Dec 19)	Continuous
-32.069	14.3%	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over these biweekly periods in Q4 2025? (Dec 8 - Dec 19)	Continuous
-36.260	89.4%	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (NVDA > MSFT, May 2025)	Binary
-41.661	99.2%	What will be the maximum daily average CO₂ reported by the Mauna Loa Observatory for March 1-25, 2025?	Continuous
-48.979	59.0%	How much will "Captain America: Brave New World," "The Monkey," and "The Alto Knights" earn in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekend? (The Monkey)	Continuous
-154.999	88.4%	Will the following Trump Cabinet nominees withdraw or be voted down in the Senate before March 31, 2025? (Any of Trump’s Other Nominees (See Fine Print))	Binary