dec0dedd

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2025

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

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39.24		Weighted Average Score
Score	Coverage	Question	Question Type
116.471	98.1%	What will the total market cap of the Magnificent Seven be on March 28, 2025?	Continuous
107.795	83.0%	How much will "Captain America: Brave New World," "The Monkey," and "The Alto Knights" earn in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekend? (The Alto Knights)	Continuous
105.735	80.8%	Will OpenAI publicly release the full o3 model before March 28, 2025? (No) → What will the closing value of NVIDIA's stock price be on March 28, 2025?	Continuous
100.949	72.3%	How many southwest land border encounters will be reported by US Customs and Border Protection for February 2025?	Continuous
91.520	72.9%	What will India's Consumer Food Price Index provisional year-over-year inflation rate be for February 2025?	Continuous
88.076	97.6%	What will the number of active US drilling rigs be on March 28, 2025?	Multiple Choice
84.852	60.0%	What will be the difference between the Arena Score of o3 and the next best model on Chatbot Arena, on April 5, 2025?	Continuous
84.479	95.5%	What will be Nigeria's year-on-year inflation for February 2025?	Continuous
84.124	95.8%	What will the 2-year U.S. Treasury note yield be on March 19, 2025?	Continuous
84.072	85.5%	What will bitcoin's dominance in the cryptocurrency market be on March 30, 2025?	Continuous
81.836	75.2%	How many acres will be reported as burned in California during 2025 on March 4, 2025?	Continuous
76.977	91.1%	What will be the highest percentage change in stock price among Hermes, Dior, and LVMH during the 2025 Paris Fashion Week Womenswear Fall/Winter?	Continuous
76.683	97.9%	How many subscribers will the MrBeast YouTube channel have on March 30, 2025?	Multiple Choice
75.043	88.2%	Will more than 15 million farmed birds be affected (depopulated or killed) in the United States due to bird flu from February 15, 2025 to March 15, 2025? (No) → What will the national average price of eggs (in USD per dozen) be in the United States on March 26, 2025?	Continuous
73.918	95.7%	What will be the lowest seed team to make it to the Elite Eight of the NCAA's 2025 March Madness women's basketball tournament?	Multiple Choice
70.334	96.3%	What cumulative percentage of the geographic area of Texas will be classified as under moderate drought or worse (D1-D4) as of March 18, 2025?	Continuous
70.089	86.1%	Will OpenAI publicly release the full o3 model before March 28, 2025?	Binary
67.824	85.1%	On March 28, 2025, what will be the exchange rate of the US dollar to the Canadian dollar, the Mexican peso, and the Chinese yuan? (USD/MXN)	Continuous
66.428	98.1%	What will the ratio of the price of 1 bitcoin to 1 troy ounce of gold be on March 30, 2025?	Continuous
65.027	95.5%	What will be the maximum daily average CO₂ reported by the Mauna Loa Observatory for March 1-25, 2025?	Continuous
61.375	81.1%	Will the debt ceiling be raised or suspended in the US before March 17, 2025?	Binary
56.566	94.6%	What will the flash consumer confidence in the Euro Area be for March 2025?	Multiple Choice
55.999	98.1%	What will the impact probability (in percent) of the asteroid 2024 YR4 be on March 27, 2025?	Continuous
55.040	76.4%	What will be the total number of aircraft violating Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) between February 15 and March 15, 2025?	Continuous
54.812	63.9%	How many parties will be in the next German parliament?	Multiple Choice
53.563	85.1%	On March 28, 2025, what will be the exchange rate of the US dollar to the Canadian dollar, the Mexican peso, and the Chinese yuan? (USD/CAD)	Continuous
49.713	96.7%	Will more than 15 million farmed birds be affected (depopulated or killed) in the United States due to bird flu from February 15, 2025 to March 15, 2025?	Binary
48.907	99.5%	Which country will the winner of the 2025 Tokyo Marathon be from?	Multiple Choice
48.138	69.2%	How many hostages will Hamas release after January 26 and before April 5, 2025?	Multiple Choice
46.085	99.0%	What will US airline passenger volume be for these weeks in February and March 2025, according to the TSA? (Mar 3, 2025 to Mar 9, 2025)	Continuous
44.490	89.3%	How many players will Monster Hunter Wilds have simultaneously online on March 21, 2025?	Continuous
41.218	69.1%	What will Nvidia's earnings per share be for Q4 FY2025 (the quarter ending January 26, 2025)?	Continuous
37.726	68.9%	Will DeepSeek be ranked higher than ChatGPT on the AppStore on April 1, 2025?	Binary
37.101	99.2%	What will be the electric vehicle sales share of light duty vehicles in the United States in February 2025?	Continuous
36.161	99.2%	What will US airline passenger volume be for these weeks in February and March 2025, according to the TSA? (Mar 10, 2025 to Mar 16, 2025)	Continuous
33.546	99.1%	Will the combined weekly percentage of emergency department visits in the United States due to COVID-19, RSV, and influenza fall below 2.7% on any date before March 16, 2025?	Binary
33.198	87.6%	Will Rafał Trzaskowski be elected President of Poland in 2025?	Binary
32.833	95.1%	Will Brazil's unemployment rate be below 6.2% in February 2025?	Binary
30.424	44.1%	What ranking will RedNote have in the Apple app store in the Social Networking category on February 17, 2025?	Continuous
28.225	50.6%	What will be the rank of Assassin's Creed Shadows on Steam's Weekly Top Sellers chart for March 18 - 25, 2025?	Multiple Choice
27.124	76.4%	Which of the five largest companies in the world will see the highest stock price growth in February and March, 2025?	Multiple Choice
26.203	79.8%	What will the total number of Tesla vehicle deliveries be for Q1 2025?	Continuous
25.908	86.0%	Will François Bayrou step down or be removed from his position as Prime Minister of France before March 31, 2025?	Binary
24.632	39.2%	What will the highest rank of metac-GPT4o or metac-o1 be in the Q1 2025 Quarterly Cup?	Continuous
24.211	79.0%	Will the eighth Starship integrated flight test reach an altitude of 160 kilometers before March 10, 2025?	Binary
23.937	80.1%	Will the winner of the rugby Men’s 2025 Six Nations Championship have at least 5 more total competition points than the second place?	Binary
23.426	56.0%	How much will "Captain America: Brave New World," "The Monkey," and "The Alto Knights" earn in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekend? (The Monkey)	Continuous
23.232	72.3%	What will Japan's preliminary net tourist inflow be for February 2025?	Continuous
21.605	95.6%	What will be the annual rate of new US building permits issued in February 2025 for privately-owned housing units?	Continuous
21.576	95.5%	How many artists in the top 10 of the Billboard Artist 100 in the last week of March will be new to the top 10 that week?	Multiple Choice
20.916	82.3%	Will Argentina's month-over-month inflation rate in February 2025 be below 3.0%?	Binary
20.270	87.6%	Will FC Barcelona win both the Liga F1 and the Women's Champions League in the 2024/25 season?	Binary
19.097	42.0%	What Premier League position will Nottingham Forest F.C. be in on March 10, 2025?	Multiple Choice
18.893	88.4%	Will Kylian Mbappé be the top scorer in LaLiga EA Sports 2024/25?	Binary
18.579	75.3%	Will a fourth person solve a Rubik's cube in less than 3.44 seconds before March 31, 2025?	Binary
18.146	44.2%	What will be the UK's Office for Budget Responsibility estimate of CPI inflation for 2025 as of March 2025?	Multiple Choice
17.682	17.3%	What percent of the European Union's gas storage capacity will be full on February 12, 2025?	Continuous
15.649	66.0%	Will the government of Greenland officially announce a date for an independence referendum, before April 6, 2025?	Binary
14.744	90.2%	Will the US officially announce the withdrawal of at least half of its troops out of Syria before April, 2025?	Binary
14.686	77.2%	Will Daniel Noboa be elected President of Ecuador in 2025?	Binary
14.553	98.5%	What will US airline passenger volume be for these weeks in February and March 2025, according to the TSA? (Feb 24, 2025 to Mar 2, 2025)	Continuous
14.315	28.4%	How many commercial passenger flights will depart from Damascus International Airport in February, 2025?	Continuous
14.276	95.6%	By what distance, measured in horse lengths, will the first place finisher win the 2025 Cheltenham Gold Cup?	Multiple Choice
13.399	26.9%	How much will "Captain America: Brave New World," "The Monkey," and "The Alto Knights" earn in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekend? (Captain America: Brave New World)	Continuous
13.034	73.9%	Will there be a new world record in the 2025 World Figure Skating Championships?	Binary
12.817	45.8%	Will the Trump administration impose new tariffs on the EU before April 7, 2025?	Binary
12.605	57.4%	What will the national average price of eggs (in USD per dozen) be in the United States on March 26, 2025?	Continuous
12.213	72.6%	Who will win the 2025 Goldsmith Prize for Investigative Reporting?	Multiple Choice
12.172	78.6%	Who will win the Liberal Party of Canada's leadership election to replace Justin Trudeau as Prime Minister of Canada?	Multiple Choice
11.550	77.5%	When will the DC cherry trees reach peak bloom in 2025?	Multiple Choice
11.379	87.6%	Will Călin Georgescu be elected President of Romania after the 2025 elections?	Binary
10.071	58.5%	What will the total number of tokens launched on the site pump.fun be, as of March 31, 2025?	Continuous
10.006	77.5%	Will Israel lift the blockade to humanitarian aid into Gaza before April 7, 2025?	Binary
9.556	21.6%	Will Pierre Poilievre be elected Prime Minister of Canada in 2025?	Binary
9.294	54.3%	What will be the the global surface air temperature on April 1, 2025?	Continuous
7.358	63.5%	[Short fuse] How many visitors will AnimeJapan 2025 have?	Continuous
7.351	88.4%	Will Atlético de Madrid win the EA Sports LaLiga 2024/25?	Binary
7.159	83.0%	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy meet with Donald Trump again before April 7, 2025?	Binary
6.382	64.7%	Will 900,000 Russian personnel losses be reported before March 21, 2025?	Binary
6.086	72.6%	Will any more Russian or UK diplomats be expelled or recalled from UK or Russia, respectively, before April 8, 2025?	Binary
5.431	78.0%	Will PEPFAR funding be resumed before April 7, 2025?	Binary
5.103	52.7%	What will be the IMDb rating of Severance's second season finale?	Continuous
4.026	29.1%	Will Intuitive Machines land with fully working payloads on the Moon before April 1, 2025?	Binary
3.443	87.4%	Will Spain win the Eurovision Song Contest in 2025?	Binary
3.234	83.1%	How many cases will be confirmed in the Texas measles outbreak before April 7, 2025?	Continuous
2.395	26.7%	Will Anthropic announce an AI Claude 4 model in 2025?	Binary
2.272	4.2%	Will the following Trump Cabinet nominees withdraw or be voted down in the Senate before March 31, 2025? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (Secretary of Health and Human Services))	Binary
1.567	82.9%	How many executive orders will Donald Trump sign in February and March 2025?	Continuous
1.257	36.7%	What will be the average duration of the 97th Academy Awards winning movies in the following seven categories?	Continuous
1.093	57.8%	Will Argentina's Chamber of Deputies impeach President Javier Milei before April 1, 2025?	Binary
1.067	2.5%	Will the following Trump Cabinet nominees withdraw or be voted down in the Senate before March 31, 2025? (Tulsi Gabbard (Director of National Intelligence))	Binary
0.238	73.8%	What will be the total number of forecasters in the Q1 2025 Quarterly Cup?	Continuous
-10.513	72.6%	Will S&P 500 recover half its drop by April 7, 2025?	Binary
-14.548	85.4%	Will China launch an antitrust investigation into Intel before April, 2025?	Binary
-36.665	97.8%	How many total confirmed human cases of H5 bird flu will CDC report in the United States as of March 31, 2025?	Multiple Choice
-207.068	80.3%	Will the following Trump Cabinet nominees withdraw or be voted down in the Senate before March 31, 2025? (Any of Trump’s Other Nominees (See Fine Print))	Binary
-212.491	77.1%	How many earthquakes of magnitude ≥ 4 will happen near Santorini, Greece in the first week of March, 2025?	Continuous