−13.9%Software DevelopersWith software development as #1 on the chopping block and having virtually no chance of legal protections, I expect this occupation to be a major canary in the coalmine for possible mass job loss in other sectors. · With software development as #1 on the chopping block and having virtually no chance of legal protections, I expect this occupation to be a major canary in the coalmine for possible mass job loss in other sectors. ·
With software development as #1 on the chopping block and having virtually no chance of legal protections, I expect this occupation to be a major canary in the coalmine for possible mass job loss in other sectors.
Automation risk is severe and concentrated in entry-level and routine roles. While the profession won't disappear, job losses are inevitable. The real danger is a hollowed middle: fewer junior positions to build the next generation of senior professionals. · Automation risk is severe and concentrated in entry-level and routine roles. While the profession won't disappear, job losses are inevitable. The real danger is a hollowed middle: fewer junior positions to build the next generation of senior professionals. ·
Automation risk is severe and concentrated in entry-level and routine roles. While the profession won't disappear, job losses are inevitable. The real danger is a hollowed middle: fewer junior positions to build the next generation of senior professionals.
Some routine (digital) administrative tasks can probably be handled by AI tools pretty well in upcoming years. This may put a slight amount of downward pressure on the growing demand for nurses. However, there is considerably more pressure in the opposite direction. Most of the pressure comes from the rapidly aging general US population. · Some routine (digital) administrative tasks can probably be handled by AI tools pretty well in upcoming years. This may put a slight amount of downward pressure on the growing demand for nurses. However, there is considerably more pressure in the opposite direction. Most of the pressure comes from the rapidly aging general US population. ·
Some routine (digital) administrative tasks can probably be handled by AI tools pretty well in upcoming years. This may put a slight amount of downward pressure on the growing demand for nurses. However, there is considerably more pressure in the opposite direction. Most of the pressure comes from the rapidly aging general US population.
Salespeople aren't facing extinction, but this job occupation is undergoing a significant transformation. · Salespeople aren't facing extinction, but this job occupation is undergoing a significant transformation. ·
Salespeople aren't facing extinction, but this job occupation is undergoing a significant transformation.
There is a ton of overlap between politics and lawyers, whether because they're strongly represented, because they actually understand the law or because of lobbying. I think there is a strong chance that one of the first professions to be completely protected from AI might be the lawyers, even in some cases if it means making things worse for everyone. · There is a ton of overlap between politics and lawyers, whether because they're strongly represented, because they actually understand the law or because of lobbying. I think there is a strong chance that one of the first professions to be completely protected from AI might be the lawyers, even in some cases if it means making things worse for everyone. ·
There is a ton of overlap between politics and lawyers, whether because they're strongly represented, because they actually understand the law or because of lobbying. I think there is a strong chance that one of the first professions to be completely protected from AI might be the lawyers, even in some cases if it means making things worse for everyone.
Humanoid robots remain experimental rather than production-ready assets due to high energy use, limited speed, high costs and immature perception and dexterity. However, potential for automation is almost unlimited, once the technology is mature enough. · Humanoid robots remain experimental rather than production-ready assets due to high energy use, limited speed, high costs and immature perception and dexterity. However, potential for automation is almost unlimited, once the technology is mature enough. ·
Humanoid robots remain experimental rather than production-ready assets due to high energy use, limited speed, high costs and immature perception and dexterity. However, potential for automation is almost unlimited, once the technology is mature enough.
Graphic / Web designers face the most AI automation risk, other fields remain relatively safe, and second-order effects (wealth, luxury, cross-sector flows) could offset employment declines. The key variable is whether AI wealth stays concentrated or disperses broadly. · Graphic / Web designers face the most AI automation risk, other fields remain relatively safe, and second-order effects (wealth, luxury, cross-sector flows) could offset employment declines. The key variable is whether AI wealth stays concentrated or disperses broadly. ·
Graphic / Web designers face the most AI automation risk, other fields remain relatively safe, and second-order effects (wealth, luxury, cross-sector flows) could offset employment declines. The key variable is whether AI wealth stays concentrated or disperses broadly.
The robotics isn't quite there yet, and once it gets there, diffusion will be slow in real terms (even if it is fast relative to other automation technologies). · The robotics isn't quite there yet, and once it gets there, diffusion will be slow in real terms (even if it is fast relative to other automation technologies). ·
The robotics isn't quite there yet, and once it gets there, diffusion will be slow in real terms (even if it is fast relative to other automation technologies).
Demand is growing faster than supply. Overall physician headcount will grow modestly. AI will not significantly change these numbers in either direction. · Demand is growing faster than supply. Overall physician headcount will grow modestly. AI will not significantly change these numbers in either direction. ·
Demand is growing faster than supply. Overall physician headcount will grow modestly. AI will not significantly change these numbers in either direction.
Teacher employment will decline primarily due to demographic changes, but automation risk is minimal. · Teacher employment will decline primarily due to demographic changes, but automation risk is minimal. ·
Teacher employment will decline primarily due to demographic changes, but automation risk is minimal.
I think between the already pretty high number of persons with this occupation and the high degree of automation possible, this job is particularly in danger. The relation it has to HR and management may help it limit/offset the blow by 2030 however as things move not too fast and they may remove people under them, using AIs in their stead while still keeping their own jobs. · I think between the already pretty high number of persons with this occupation and the high degree of automation possible, this job is particularly in danger. The relation it has to HR and management may help it limit/offset the blow by 2030 however as things move not too fast and they may remove people under them, using AIs in their stead while still keeping their own jobs. ·
I think between the already pretty high number of persons with this occupation and the high degree of automation possible, this job is particularly in danger. The relation it has to HR and management may help it limit/offset the blow by 2030 however as things move not too fast and they may remove people under them, using AIs in their stead while still keeping their own jobs.
Long-term demand for engineers building new products and infrastructure could offset AI impact. Engineering is among the most promising career paths for young people, alongside healthcare. · Long-term demand for engineers building new products and infrastructure could offset AI impact. Engineering is among the most promising career paths for young people, alongside healthcare. ·
Long-term demand for engineers building new products and infrastructure could offset AI impact. Engineering is among the most promising career paths for young people, alongside healthcare.
AI is transforming law enforcement operations, but as a force multiplier rather than a workforce reducer. AI will augment investigative work, administrative tasks and surveillance. Functions like human judgment, community engagement, physical intervention and accountability, are unlikely to be automated within this timeframe. · AI is transforming law enforcement operations, but as a force multiplier rather than a workforce reducer. AI will augment investigative work, administrative tasks and surveillance. Functions like human judgment, community engagement, physical intervention and accountability, are unlikely to be automated within this timeframe. ·
AI is transforming law enforcement operations, but as a force multiplier rather than a workforce reducer. AI will augment investigative work, administrative tasks and surveillance. Functions like human judgment, community engagement, physical intervention and accountability, are unlikely to be automated within this timeframe.
Good technology to automate food service - in the form of self-serve / fast-casual restaurants - already exists and has done so for some time, and yet human food service roles have grown. I'd expect this trend to continue by default. The downside risk I see is primarily from contagion from other economic impacts, and model uncertainty as we look further ahead. · Good technology to automate food service - in the form of self-serve / fast-casual restaurants - already exists and has done so for some time, and yet human food service roles have grown. I'd expect this trend to continue by default. The downside risk I see is primarily from contagion from other economic impacts, and model uncertainty as we look further ahead. ·
Good technology to automate food service - in the form of self-serve / fast-casual restaurants - already exists and has done so for some time, and yet human food service roles have grown. I'd expect this trend to continue by default. The downside risk I see is primarily from contagion from other economic impacts, and model uncertainty as we look further ahead.
If AI significantly boosts the economy, some of that economy is going to occur in physical spaces, which will require physical infrastructure. In the long term, by 2035, there is a good chance that AI-powered robotics will be able to do all of these jobs. · If AI significantly boosts the economy, some of that economy is going to occur in physical spaces, which will require physical infrastructure. In the long term, by 2035, there is a good chance that AI-powered robotics will be able to do all of these jobs. ·
If AI significantly boosts the economy, some of that economy is going to occur in physical spaces, which will require physical infrastructure. In the long term, by 2035, there is a good chance that AI-powered robotics will be able to do all of these jobs.