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This post provides a snapshot of the last 24 hours of significant events, forecast updates, public predictions, and newly added questions related to the crisis in Ukraine. We want to produce such updates regularly, and so this piece is optimized most for speed. Please tag @christian to report any errors.
Senior Fellow at Carnegie Europe Thomas de Waal now has a public figure prediction page here. You can contribute to a richer, more accountable public conversation by clicking on the 'Report Prediction' button on a figure's page to submit new predictions.
The following are forecasts with significant Community Prediction shifts in the last 24 hours, as well as various discussions reflecting and informing forecasters' perspectives.
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