This post provides a snapshot of the last 24 hours of significant events, forecast updates, public predictions, and newly added questions related to the crisis in Ukraine. We want to produce such updates regularly, and so this piece is optimized most for speed. Please tag @christian to report any errors.
Contents of this update
- The latest
- New questions
- Public predictions
- Forecast updates and signals
- The UN decried an attack on a Mariupol hospital today during what was meant to be a 12-hour pause in hostilities.
- The US rejected Poland's offer to send fighter jets to Ukraine.
- President Zelensky renewed calls for the imposition of a no-fly zone over Ukraine, while the US and the UK reaffirm their opposition.
Senior Fellow at Carnegie Europe Thomas de Waal now has a public figure prediction page here. You can contribute to a richer, more accountable public conversation by clicking on the 'Report Prediction' button on a figure's page to submit new predictions.
Forecast updates and signals
The following are forecasts with significant Community Prediction shifts in the last 24 hours, as well as various discussions reflecting and informing forecasters' perspectives.
The Community Prediction dropped by ~10% over the last day, bringing it down to 70%.
A recently announced US ban on Russian energy imports and the UAE's commitment on the OPEC+ supply pact have resulted in dramatic forecast swings.
The Community Prediction dropped by ~10% in the last 24 hours, landing it at 40%, with commentary by @RyanBeck focusing on the potentially lengthy process for admitting a member.
A vetoed nuclear power extension resulted in a sharp decline in forecasts, bringing the Community Prediction to 23%.
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