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ForbesScientific AmericanTimeVoxYale NewsNature
8 comments
47 forecasters

Will Iran allow the IAEA to inspect its stockpile of enriched uranium before 2026?

10%chance
5% today

Key Factors

2 comments
4 forecasters

Will a Russian-developed LLM reach the top 100 on LMSYS Chatbot Arena before 2027?

21%chance
118 comments
269 forecasters

Will the United States attack Venezuela before 2026?

50%chance
10% this week

Key Factors

1 comment
2 forecasters

Will GigaChat release an open-weights model with โ‰ฅ100B parameters before 2027?

49%chance
1 comment
23 forecasters

Will the United States invade Venezuela before January 20, 2029?

20%chance
condition

China bans imports from Taiwan by 2030?

13 forecasters
if yes
if no

Taiwan Semiconductor Wafers Lost To Attack (1M / year)

50%
50%

Taiwan Semiconductor Wafers Lost To Attack (1M / year)

19%
19%
1
0 comments
13
13 forecasters
The Taiwan Tinderbox
14 comments
31 forecasters

On how many days in the following years will China carry out โ€œreactionaryโ€ air incursions into Taiwanโ€™s air defense identification zone?

37 comments
122 forecasters

Will the United States bailout Argentina before 2026?

22%chance
8% this week

Key Factors

Launched: The RAND x Metaculus Policy Challenge | $10K in Prizes + Opportunities for Students

8
1616 comments
RAND x Metaculus Policy Challenge
3 comments
12 forecasters

Will there be a successful coup in Africa or Latin America before February 1, 2026?

50%chance
21% this week

Key Factors