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ForbesScientific AmericanTimeVoxYale NewsNature
17 comments
40 forecasters

What will be the number of Palestinian deaths in Gaza during the late 2025 ceasefire?

Current estimate
2159 deaths
133 comments
301 forecasters

Will the United States attack Venezuela before 2026?

48%chance

Key Factors

48 comments
131 forecasters

Will the United States bailout Argentina before 2026?

27%chance
9% this week

Key Factors

3 comments
61 forecasters

Will the United States conduct a military attack within Nigeria before 2026?

6%chance
3 comments
6 forecasters

Will a Russian-developed LLM reach the top 100 on LMSYS Chatbot Arena before 2027?

21%chance
14% this week
5 comments
4 forecasters

Will China publicly sell domestic AI accelerators to Russia by 2030?

74%chance
13 comments
60 forecasters

Will Iran allow the IAEA to inspect its stockpile of enriched uranium before 2026?

5%chance

Key Factors

1 comment
33 forecasters

Will the United States invade Venezuela before January 20, 2029?

40%chance
3 comments
2 forecasters

Will a frontier AI developer publicly accuse a Russian actor of stealing their model weights before 2030?

60%chance
10% this week
0 comments
23 forecasters

Which countries will Vladimir Putin visit before July 1, 2026?

Switzerland5%
South Africa20%
Mongolia32%