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ForbesScientific AmericanTimeVoxYale NewsNature

Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon before 2030?

Key Factor

Political will to maintain the threat of strikes

38%chance

Key Factor

Political will to maintain the threat of strikes

Will Iran's supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, make a public appearance in Iran before July 14, 2025?

Key Factor

Public statements likely due to crisis with Israel

26%chance
14% this week

Key Factor

Public statements likely due to crisis with Israel

How many Patriot missile batteries will the U.S. formally agree to send to Ukraine before September 2025?

Key Factor

Other countries primarily supplying Ukraine

086.7%
19.4%
23%
and 2 others

Key Factor

Other countries primarily supplying Ukraine

Will there be at least 1,000 deaths due to direct conflict between Israel and Iran in 2025?

95%chance
3% this week

What defence spending target will NATO agree to at their 2025 summit?

Key Factor

Trump’s pressure

3.5result: Yes
3result: No
2.5result: No
and 3 others

Key Factor

Trump’s pressure

Will Ali Khamenei cease to be supreme leader of Iran in 2025?

25%chance
8% this week

Will Iran attack US sites in Iraq before August 2025?

14%chance
16% this week

Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon before 2041?

73%chance
4% this week

Will any new country attack Israel or Iran between June and December 2025?

9%chance
6% today

How many US military personnel will be killed by Iran or its proxies before 2026?

065%
1-425%
5-248%
and 1 other