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Will SAF and RSF delegations both physically attend the same peace negotiation venue before December 31, 2025?

Forecast revealed in 2 days

Before 2029, will a new international organization focused on AI safety be established with participation from at least three G7 countries?

Key Factor

AI-related disasters could force cooperation

60%chance
20% today

Key Factor

AI-related disasters could force cooperation

Will Russia capture the following cities before September 2025?

Key Factor

Significant gains into Pokrovsk

Pokrovskresult: Yes
Myrnohrad5%
Kostiantynivka1.5%
and 1 other

Key Factor

Significant gains into Pokrovsk

Will the United States and China sign a formal, verifiable bilateral treaty or accord specifically limiting Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) development by December 31, 2030?

8%chance

Will there be a successful coup in Africa or Latin America before January 1, 2026?

Forecast revealed in 3 days

If Trump is re-elected, will he achieve a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine war during his term?

68%chance
13% this week

Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy meet with Donald Trump again before April 7, 2025?

resultNo

Will Ukraine have a security guarantee from another country before 2024?

resultNo

Will Putin and Zelenskyy meet to discuss the peaceful resolution of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict before 2023?

resultNo

If Putin and Zelenskyy meet to discuss peace in 2022, when will they first meet?

Ambiguous