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15 comments
33 forecasters

What will be the number of Palestinian deaths in Gaza during the late 2025 ceasefire?

Current estimate
1915 deaths
3 comments
57 forecasters

Will the United States conduct a military attack within Nigeria before 2026?

10%chance
4 comments
49 forecasters

How many people will be admitted to the UK under the Agreement on the Prevention of Dangerous Journeys before 2026?

Current estimate
>75.5 People

Key Factors

123 comments
283 forecasters

Will the United States attack Venezuela before 2026?

40%chance
10% this week

Key Factors

1 comment
31 forecasters

Will the United States invade Venezuela before January 20, 2029?

40%chance
20% this week
13 comments
58 forecasters

Will Iran allow the IAEA to inspect its stockpile of enriched uranium before 2026?

5%chance
5% this week

Key Factors

43 comments
130 forecasters

Will the United States bailout Argentina before 2026?

15%chance
7% this week

Key Factors

4 comments
3 forecasters

Will China publicly sell domestic AI accelerators to Russia by 2030?

74%chance
3 comments
5 forecasters

Will a Russian-developed LLM reach the top 100 on LMSYS Chatbot Arena before 2027?

7%chance
14% this week
4 comments
20 forecasters

Will the United States attack Nigeria before 2027?

10%chance