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ForbesScientific AmericanTimeVoxYale NewsNature

Will Iran's supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, make a public appearance in Iran before July 14, 2025?

Key Factor

Potential retaliation if Khamenei is harmed

resultYes

Key Factor

Potential retaliation if Khamenei is harmed

Will there be at least 1,000 deaths due to direct conflict between Israel and Iran in 2025?

resultYes

Will Russia capture the following cities before September 2025?

Forecast revealed in 9 hours

Will Russia attack a European NATO member before 2035?

Forecast revealed in 4 days

Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon before 2030?

Key Factor

Base rate below 50% for similarly sized economies

30%chance
6% this week

Key Factor

Base rate below 50% for similarly sized economies

How many Patriot missile batteries will the U.S. formally agree to send to Ukraine before September 2025?

Key Factor

Other countries primarily supplying Ukraine

079.3%
115.2%
24%
and 2 others

Key Factor

Other countries primarily supplying Ukraine

Will Iran attack US sites in Iraq before August 2025?

2%chance
14% this week

Will The United States Give Israel Bunker Busting Bombs By The End of June 2025?

resultNo

What defence spending target will NATO agree to at their 2025 summit?

Key Factor

Trump’s pressure

3.5result: Yes
3result: No
2.5result: No
and 3 others

Key Factor

Trump’s pressure

Will Ali Khamenei cease to be supreme leader of Iran in 2025?

20%chance
10% this week