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17
comments
40
forecasters
What will be the number of Palestinian deaths in Gaza during the late 2025 ceasefire?
Current estimate
2159 deaths
133
comments
301
forecasters
Will the United States attack Venezuela before 2026?
48%
chance
Key Factors
Presence of aircraft carrier group in region
Authorized CIA to carry out operations
Military presence increase
48
comments
131
forecasters
Will the United States bailout Argentina before 2026?
27%
chance
9%
this week
Key Factors
US pledge to bail out Argentina already made
Show of support from Trump is possible
Milei's election victory stabilises peso speculation
3
comments
61
forecasters
Will the United States conduct a military attack within Nigeria before 2026?
6%
chance
3
comments
6
forecasters
Will a Russian-developed LLM reach the top 100 on LMSYS Chatbot Arena before 2027?
21%
chance
14%
this week
5
comments
4
forecasters
Will China publicly sell domestic AI accelerators to Russia by 2030?
74%
chance
13
comments
60
forecasters
Will Iran allow the IAEA to inspect its stockpile of enriched uranium before 2026?
5%
chance
Key Factors
Short timeline reduces chances of inspection
Iran sees inspections as threat to sovereignty
Iran views the US's conditions for talks to resume as "illogical and unfair".
1
comment
33
forecasters
Will the United States invade Venezuela before January 20, 2029?
40%
chance
3
comments
2
forecasters
Will a frontier AI developer publicly accuse a Russian actor of stealing their model weights before 2030?
60%
chance
10%
this week
0
comments
23
forecasters
Which countries will Vladimir Putin visit before July 1, 2026?
Switzerland
5%
South Africa
20%
Mongolia
32%
6 others
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