Scott Alexander’s annual prediction contest for 2024 has concluded! We were proud to host the [<u>Astral Codex Ten 2024 Prediction Contest</u>](https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/ACX2024/), challenging participants to predict 36 outcomes covering politics, finance, technology, and more.

We scored participants according to their standing predictions as of January 21st, 2024. We call these “spot” scores, and we took this approach because we wanted a competition that would rely less on diligent updating over the year and more on skillful forecasting at the year’s open. Looking back, the below winners had the most accurate picture of the year to come. 

### 2024 Prize Winners — \$2,500 prize pool

1. [<u>sparepot</u>](https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/164969/) – \$1,000
2. [<u>katifish</u>](https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/109742/) – \$625
3. [rednamlooc](https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/151993/) – \$375
4. [PhobonNika](https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/100036/) – \$300
5. [sambe](https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/122781/) – \$200

Congratulations to the prize winners and to all who won medals for their excellent performance! Find more details and the full leaderboard for the ACX 2024 Prediction Contest [<u>here</u>](https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/ACX2024/).

We will be in touch with prize winners to arrange payments. We are also happy to facilitate donations to the organizations listed [<u>here</u>](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11556/donating-tournament-prizes/).

**Congratulations again to sparepot, katifish, rednamlooc, PhobonNika, and sambe!**

We would also like to recognize the excellent forecasting performances of [LokiInTheCrib](https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/165112/) and [jshapiro](https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/158467/), who earned the positions of 3rd and 5th in the [leaderboard](https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/ACX2024/), respectively. While we determined that they should be ineligible for prizes (see the end of this post for more information), they demonstrated excellent forecasting skill and we view their accounts as in good standing.

### **Forecast in the ACX 2025 Prediction Contest — \$10,000 Prize Pool**

Have you started on the ACX 2025 Prediction Contest yet? We’re taking the same spot scoring approach and **significantly expanding the prize pool, up to \$10,000.**

Make your predictions in the[ **<u>ACX 2025 Prediction Contest</u>**](https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/ACX2025/) **before** **January 31st** on questions like:

* [<u>Will the US government release additional Epstein documents in 2025?</u>](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/31348/us-government-releases-additional-epstein-documents-in-2025/)
* [<u>Will a commercially available AI be able to order you a Starbucks delivery in 2025?</u>](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/31347/ai-takes-starbucks-delivery-order-in-2025/)
* [<u>Will an application to ban AfD be filed at the Federal Constitutional Court before 2026?</u>](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/31341/application-to-ban-afd-in-2025/)
* [<u>Will real-money betting on Polymarket or Manifold become legal for US residents in 2025?</u>](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/31340/polymarket-or-manifold-real-money-bets-legal-in-us-in-2025/)
* [<u>Will OpenAI top the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard on December 31, 2025?</u>](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/31326/openai-tops-chatbot-arena-at-end-2025/)
* [<u>Will Nvidia outperform the S\&P 500 in 2025?</u>](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/31307/will-nvda-outperform-spy-in-2025/)
* [<u>Will at least twice as many deportations by U.S. ICE occur in Fiscal Year 2025 compared with Fiscal Year 2024?</u>](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/31296/will-fy-2025-deportations-in-the-us-be-2x-those-of-fy-2024/)
* [<u>Will real housing prices in the US increase more in 2025 compared to 2024?</u>](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/31271/us-housing-prices-increase-more-in-2025-compared-to-2024/)

***

*January 21 Update: We have concluded our investigation into leaderboard irregularities and as a result have deactivated one account and deemed two others ineligible to receive tournament prizes. Two individuals participated in the tournament and also used a shared account, which is* [*against our terms of use*](https://www.metaculus.com/terms-of-use/#:~:text=You%20may%20only%20have%20one%20Metaculus%20account%20for%20use%20of%20the%20Service.%20You%20may%20not%20create%20or%20use%20more%20than%20one%20account%2C%20and%20you%20may%20not%20share%20your%20account%20or%20any%20of%20the%20Service%20with%20others.)*. However, the users were cooperative with our investigation and it became clear that the shared account was motivated by interest in forecasting methods and was a result of a misunderstanding caused in part by our failure to make the rules more prominently visible. We will aim to be clearer about this for future competitions. We have deactivated the shared account, and out of fairness for other competitors cannot award prizes to the individuals, but consider their accounts to be in good standing and consider them to have earned their place on the final leaderboard.*

*January 17 Update: We are currently investigating some irregularities that will affect the final rankings. We will provide an updated announcement soon.*&#x20;