How will AI reshape the future of work, and how fast will those changes arrive? These questions are among the most consequential in economics and policy, with implications for workers, employers, educators, and governments navigating decisions that will compound for decades.

Despite the stakes, there is little consensus on what to expect or how to prepare. That’s why we’ve launched the [<u>Labor Automation Tournament</u>](https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/labor-hub/).

Community forecasts will be aggregated and published on the Labor Automation Forecasting Hub, launching April 20 as a public resource for tracking how predictions on AI and work evolve over time.

## **What's in the tournament**

The tournament launches with 93 questions spanning occupation-level employment shifts, wage trajectories, AI adoption rates, workforce education trends, and macro labor market indicators. A few examples:

* [<u>What will the percent change in people employed as software developers in the US be by 2030 and 2035?</u>](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/42613/us-software-developer-change-vs-2025/)
* [<u>What will the unemployment rate be among new graduates in 2027, 2030, and 2035?</u>](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/42212/new-grad-unemployment-in-these-years/)
* [<u>What percent of US workers will use AI daily in 2030 and 2035?</u>](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/42215/us-worker-ai-use-in-these-years/)
* [<u>What will the labor share of national income be in the US by 2030 and 2035?</u>](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/41578/labor-share-of-national-income-in-the-us-in-the-following-years/)
* [<u>What will the percent change in people employed as registered nurses be relative to 2025?</u>](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/42620/us-nurses-change-vs-2025/)

Questions cover both near-term developments (closing by end of 2030) and longer-horizon outcomes (resolving through 2035).&nbsp;

## **Prizes**

**\$35,000 in total prizes** across three pools:

**Commenting Prize (\$5,000)** for comments posted before September 1, 2026, distributed across the top eight contributors based on quality and quantity and awarded by November 2026.&nbsp;

**Near-Term Forecasting Prize (\$10,000)** for questions closing by the end of 2030, awarded in 2031.

**Long-Term Forecasting Prize (\$20,000)** for questions resolving after 2031, awarded in 2036.

See the [<u>tournament page</u>](https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/labor-hub/) for more details.

***

If you work in labor economics, workforce policy, education, AI research, or any field where these questions intersect with your work, we want your forecasts and your perspective. [<u>Get in touch</u>](mailto:feedback@metaculus.com) if you have thoughts or feedback.&nbsp;

[**<u>Start forecasting</u>**](https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/labor-hub/)

*The Labor Automation Tournament and Forecasting Hub are collaborations between Metaculus,* [*<u>Schultz Family Foundation</u>*](https://schultzfamilyfoundation.org/)*, and*[ *<u>Renaissance Philanthropy</u>*](https://www.renaissancephilanthropy.org/)*.*