Your submission is now in Draft mode.

Once it's ready, please submit your draft for review by our team of Community Moderators. Thank you!

Submit Essay

Once you submit your essay, you can no longer edit it.

Pending

This content now needs to be approved by community moderators.

Submitted

This essay was submitted and is waiting for review.

Bilateral Ceasefire between Russia & Ukraine

Ukraine Conflict

Question

Related Questions on Metaculus:


On Feb 28, 2022 Ukrainian and Russian officials started cease-fire talks on the Belarusian border.

Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2023?

This question will resolve positively if a bilateral cease-fire has gone into effect and stood for 30 days, beginning at any point between March 1, 2022 to December 31, 2022. A ceasefire is bilateral if it applies to the majorities of combatants on both the Russian and Ukrainian sides, respectively. A cease-fire is deemed to have stood as long as no reliable sources report that the cease-fire has broken down or is no longer effective. The question resolves negatively if no cease-fire has gone into effect by 2023, or if all the announced cease-fires in 2022 break down before lasting 30 days. (Thus positive resolution in 2023 is possible if a cease-fire goes into effect late in 2022.)

Edit March 2, 2022: The resolution criterion regarding negative resolution "if an announced cease-fire breaks down in 2022 before lasting 30 days" has been edited to read: "if all the announced cease-fires in 2022 break down before lasting 30 days."

Make a Prediction

Prediction

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

Current points depend on your prediction, the community's prediction, and the result. Your total earned points are averaged over the lifetime of the question, so predict early to get as many points as possible! See the FAQ.