Related Questions on Metaculus:
Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2023?
This question will resolve positively if a bilateral cease-fire has gone into effect and stood for 30 days, beginning at any point between March 1, 2022 to December 31, 2022. A ceasefire is bilateral if it applies to the majorities of combatants on both the Russian and Ukrainian sides, respectively. A cease-fire is deemed to have stood as long as no reliable sources report that the cease-fire has broken down or is no longer effective. The question resolves negatively if no cease-fire has gone into effect by 2023, or if all the announced cease-fires in 2022 break down before lasting 30 days. (Thus positive resolution in 2023 is possible if a cease-fire goes into effect late in 2022.)
Edit March 2, 2022: The resolution criterion regarding negative resolution "if an announced cease-fire breaks down in 2022 before lasting 30 days" has been edited to read: "if all the announced cease-fires in 2022 break down before lasting 30 days."