5 comments
59 forecasters
Will a cyberattack directly cause one or more deaths in 2022?
16%chance
ResolvedNo
The community gave this a 16% chance, and it resolved No.
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:Mar 15, 2022
Closes:Dec 31, 2022
Resolved:Jan 1, 2023
Spot Scoring Time:Apr 13, 2022
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch
Will a cyberattack targeting AI systems cause a significant power blackout in the United States before 2028?
9% chance
42
Before 2032, will we see an event precipitated by AI malfunction that causes at least 1000 deaths and/or at least $200B 2021 USD in economic damage?
40% chance
41
Before 2032, will we see an event precipitated by AI malfunction that causes at least 100 deaths and/or at least $1B 2021 USD in economic damage?
80% chance
141