Metaculus Help: Spread the word
If you like Metaculus, tell your friends! Share this question via Facebook, Twitter, or Reddit.
Will OpenAI's machine system defeat a pro team at Dota 2 in August?
After DeepMind's ascent to the top of Go playing, and with great advances in AI systems playing many (but not some other) Atari games through self-training and reinforcement learning, interest has turned to games that require a lot of long-term strategic thinking and sub-goal setting, such as Starcraft 2 and in the short-term, Dota 2.
OpenAI's Dota 2 player system has been defeating top humans in 1-on-1 play for about a year, and OpenAI has recently announced that its Dota2-playing system had begun to beat skilled human teams on 5-on-5 team play, a significantly larger challenge.
OpenAI now feels ready for the big-time, and will enter its 5-player system in "The International", a major Dota 2 championshop with a $20M purse. There's a site set up for this and everything.
Will OpenAI's system beat the top players on August 5th?
The question accepts whatever rules/restrictions the match occurs under. If there is a single game, resolution will be based on that game. If there are multiple games it will be based on winning the majority of the games; in case of a tie it resolves ambiguous.
A sister question will concern "The International" once more details become available.
(Edit 7/19/18: Updated to reflect the match's new date)
Metaculus help: Predicting
Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.
The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available. With tachyons you'll even be able to go back in time and backdate your prediction to maximize your points.
The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.
This question is not yet open for predictions.
Metaculus help: Community Stats
Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.
When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.