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3 comments
51 forecasters

When will the first tourist land on Mars?

Current estimate
>Jan 2050
Authors:
Kostas
Opened:May 30, 2022
Closes:Dec 31, 2049
Scheduled resolution:Dec 31, 2049
Spot Scoring Time:Jun 1, 2022
Verity
Economy & Business
Technology
Space
CNN logo
Inside Mongolia’s ‘Mars camp’: The extreme adventure that wants to turn tourists into astronauts
CNN•Oct 24, 2025
USA Today logo
SpaceX could have Artemis competition. What to know as NASA revisits moon landing plans
USA Today•Oct 21, 2025
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will SpaceX land people on Mars before 2030?

0.1% chance
4.4k

When will the first humans land successfully on Mars?

Jan 2044
(Nov 2036 - May 2057)
Jan 2044
(Nov 2036 - May 2057)
379 forecasters

When will SpaceX launch humans around the Moon?

09 Jan 2029
(18 Apr 2027 - May 2031)
09 Jan 2029
(18 Apr 2027 - May 2031)
99 forecasters
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