Questions
Tournaments
Services
News
Questions
Tournaments
Questions
Questions
More
Log in
Sign Up
Log in
Sign Up
20
72
forecasters
9
20 comments
72 forecasters
AGI Outcomes
1 more...
When will an AI win a Nobel prize for the first time?
Predict
Follow
share
embed
Current estimate
Jul 2039
Jul 2039
(03 Oct 2029 - 2077)
Forecast Timeline
1d
1w
2m
all
Forecast Timeline
1d
1w
2m
all
Comments (20)
Timeline
Key Factors (0)
Question Info
Similar Questions
No key factors yet
Add some that might influence this forecast.
Add key factor
1 comment
4 forecasters
Nobel Prize in Russia before 2035?
Physics
32%
Chemistry
15%
Medicine
15%
Literature
20%
2 others
20 comments
22 forecasters
When will AI solve a Millennium Problem?
Current estimate
Jul 2031
77 comments
300 forecasters
Date AI Wins IMO Gold Medal?
Current estimate
12 Oct 2026
49 comments
234 forecasters
Next Millenium Prize Problem Solved by AI
35.6%
chance
23 comments
100 forecasters
First AI-generated NYT Best Seller
Current estimate
20 Mar 2030
15 comments
129 forecasters
Wolram, Gorard, Piskunov, Physics Nobel
1%
chance
84 comments
102 forecasters
Superhuman Diplomacy AI
Current estimate
11 Jan 2028
5 comments
24 forecasters
IMO AI Prize
2026
78%
2027
17%
2028 or later
3%
2024 or before
result:
No
2025
result:
No