Question
When will an AI win a Nobel prize for the first time?
Total Forecasters69
Community Prediction
Jun 2039
(27 Nov 2029 - 2081)
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CDF
| Quartiles | community | My Prediction |
| lower 25% | 27 Nov 2029 | — |
| median | Jun 2039 | — |
| upper 75% | 2081 | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >2199 | 13.6% | — |
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Authors:
Opened:Mar 26, 2022
Closes:Jan 1, 2100
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2200
Spot Scoring Time:Mar 28, 2022
Authors:
Opened:Mar 26, 2022
Closes:Jan 1, 2100
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2200
Spot Scoring Time:Mar 28, 2022