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GWP Doubles in 8 Years vs. 2 Years By 2050


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As of 2018, it's taken about 16 years for the world economic output to double. So it might seem absurd to talk about it doubling in one or even four years. But there is a potential major change on the horizon: very advanced Artificial Intelligence.

An important consideration in how to approach the AI alignment problem is the speed of the takeoff from massively subhuman AI to massively superhuman AI. The effectiveness of capacity limitation, as well as the existence of fire alarms for AI safety, are heavily dependent on this, for example.

Paul Christiano suggests operationalising the takeoff speed in terms of economic growth. A slow takeoff is one where the economy doubles in four years before the first time it doubles in one year, and a fast takeoff is one where it does not. (See the same article for Christiano's list of arguments regarding fast vs. slow takeoff.)

Will a 8-year gross world product doubling complete before a 2-year doubling does?

This question will resolve positively if the gross world product of Earth doubles in a period of 8 years or less before any doubling in a period of 2 years or less, according to the World Bank. This question will only consider estimates reported on an annual basis. In the case that a 2-year doubling and 8-year doubling are achieved in the same year, the question will resolve negatively.

Gross world product should be measured in US dollars, or another stable currency/measure of value.

If there is no doubling in 8 years or less before 2050, this question will resolve as "Ambiguous". If the World Bank no longer provides this data, or the estimate is unreliable or inaccurate, Metaculus Admins may select another credible source, or resolve ambiguously, at their discretion.

For the purpose of this question, estimates of GWP should include all economic activity within geosynchrous orbit of Earth.

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