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20
48
forecasters
8
20 comments
48 forecasters
Economy & Business
2 more...
Will a 8-year gross world product doubling complete before a 2-year doubling does?
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66.7%
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224 forecasters
GWP Doubles in 4 Years vs. 1 Year by 2050
56%
chance
8 comments
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GWP Doubles in <4 Years by 2050
40%
chance
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Transformative AI Date
Current estimate
Jun 2039
39 comments
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GDP growth to exceed 30% 15-years post HLAI
50%
chance
39 comments
114 forecasters
Date of GWP Growth Over 130%
Current estimate
Mar 2059
1 comment
15 forecasters
Gross World Product
51 comments
344 forecasters
Time From (weak) AGI to Superintelligence
Current estimate
34 months
3 comments
8 forecasters
FLOP usage for training transformative AI
Current estimate
5.5×10³⁰ FLOP