formulating probable wisdom delivering definitive contingencies assembling precise wisdom forecasting critical insights formulating calibrated wisdom mapping the future computing critical contingencies modeling predictive futures predicting accurate estimations mapping calibrated forecasts generating quantitative estimations computing precise predictions crowdsourcing quantitative estimations delivering definitive wisdom


Metaculus Help: Spread the word

If you like Metaculus, tell your friends! Share this question via Facebook, Twitter, or Reddit.

Of the top 10 AI companies, how many will pledge not to develop lethal autonomous weapons?

The idea has been steadily gaining currency that after gunpowder and nuclear weapons, the next major revolution in warfare will be driven by artificial intelligence.

Autonomous and semi-autonomous weapons have become a core part of the military strategy of several major powers. However there is widespread concern that an arms race in autonomous weapons, especially those designed to kill humans, could lead to a pretty bleak future. This has led to a growing movement to seek an international agreement banning or curtailing at lest some types of lethal autonomous weapons.

It was announced at the IJCAI AI and ML meeting that more than 160 organizations and thousands of individuals have pledged not to develop lethal autonomous weapons. How successful will this be? We ask:

Of the 10 major AI companies listed below, as of Oct 21 2018 how many will publicly state a policy not to develop lethal autonomous weapons?

Resolution will be based on how many have either (a) signed the pledge, or (b) made a public statement of their own that they have a policy that they will not develop lethal autonomous weapons.

The companies are: Deepmind, Google, Facebook, Amazon, Baidu, OpenAI, Microsoft research, Apple, IBM, Nvidia.

As of question launch, Deepmind falls in category (a) and Google falls in category (b).


Metaculus help: Predicting

Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.

The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

This question is not yet open for predictions.

Thanks for predicting!

Your prediction has been recorded anonymously.

Want to track your predictions, earn points, and hone your forecasting skills? Create an account today!

Track your predictions
Continue exploring the site

Community Stats

Metaculus help: Community Stats

Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.

When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.

Embed this question

You can use the below code snippet to embed this question on your own webpage. Feel free to change the height and width to suit your needs.