Your submission is now in Draft mode.

Once it's ready, please submit your draft for review by our team of Community Moderators. Thank you!

Submit Essay

Once you submit your essay, you can no longer edit it.

Pending

This content now needs to be approved by community moderators.

Submitted

This essay was submitted and is waiting for review.

Ukraine Army Reduction in Peace Negotiations

Trustworthy News Ukraine Conflict Improve the News

Question

Ukraine and Russia entered peace negotiations in March 2022, with the most recent round of negotiations in Istanbul on March 29.

The number of active-duty troops in Ukraine's standing army before the Russian invasion of 2022 will serve as the base value for the size of Ukraine's standing army. According to the NYT, Ukraine had 170,000 active-duty troops and 100,00 reservists before the invasion, making them one of the largest armies in Europe.

What size of army will Ukraine be limited to as result of cease-fire or treaty negotiations with Russia?

This question will resolve as the number of active-duty troops that Ukraine agrees to be limited by as a result of a cease-fire or treaty negotiations with Russia.

The agreement must be written in a formal document and ratified by the Ukrainian government to qualify for resolution, a verbal agreement will not be sufficient.

If Ukraine and Russia sign a peace treaty with no agreement to reduce army size, this question will resolve as >250,000.

If Ukraine and Russia do not sign any form of peace treaty before January 1, 2024, then this question will resolve as "Ambiguous".

Make a Prediction

Prediction

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

Current points depend on your prediction, the community's prediction, and the result. Your total earned points are averaged over the lifetime of the question, so predict early to get as many points as possible! See the FAQ.