34 comments
127 forecasters
How many years after 2018 will the last human being be born?
Current estimate
11.4k years
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Authors:
Opened:Nov 1, 2018
Closes:Jan 1, 2100
Scheduled resolution:Dec 31, 9999
Spot Scoring Time:Nov 3, 2018
If humanity goes extinct due to an AI catastrophe before 2300, when will the last human die?
May 2049
(Oct 2034 - 2097)
May 2049
(Oct 2034 - 2097)
70 forecasters
How many biological humans will be alive on December 31, 2300, conditional on there being more than 500 Million?
10.5B people
(3.21B - 27.8B)
10.5B people
(3.21B - 27.8B)
70 forecasters
When will the first biological human to live to the age of 1000 be born?
2092
(Jan 1992 - 2877)
2092
(Jan 1992 - 2877)
198 forecasters