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Keynesian Groupy Contest: interquartile range

Everyone loves Keynesian Beauty Contests. To commemorate our new Question Group feature, here's one that would have been hard to do without it.

On 2022-06-05, at a quantum-randomly chosen time, for each of the three options below, I'll extract the interquartile range of the unweighted distribution of forecasts. Then:

  • The option with the highest interquartile range will resolve positive.

  • The option with the lowest interquartile range will resolve ambiguous.

  • The remaining option will resolve negative.

If any two options have the same interquartile range, I'll throw a coin for each option to decide whether it resolves positive or negative. I'll also do another much worse KBC much sooner than I would otherwise have.

Categories:
Metaculus Itself

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