Question Group
  • Facebook
  • Twitter
    •

    • Your Question Group is now a Draft.

    Once it's ready, please submit your draft for review by our team of Community Moderators. Thank you!

    You have been invited to co-author this Question Group.

    When it is ready, the author will submit it for review by Community Moderators. Thanks for helping!

    Pending

    This Question Group now needs to be approved by community moderators.

    You have been invited to co-author this Question Group.

    It now needs to be approved by community moderators. Thanks for helping!

    Keynesian Groupy Contest: interquartile range

    Created by Sylvain and
    co-authors , {{coauthor.username}}
    on {{qctrl.question.created_time | dateStr}}

    Everyone loves Keynesian Beauty Contests. To commemorate our new Question Group feature, here's one that would have been hard to do without it.

    On 2022-06-05, at a quantum-randomly chosen time, for each of the three options below, I'll extract the interquartile range of the unweighted distribution of forecasts. Then:

    • The option with the highest interquartile range will resolve positive.

    • The option with the lowest interquartile range will resolve ambiguous.

    • The remaining option will resolve negative.

    If any two options have the same interquartile range, I'll throw a coin for each option to decide whether it resolves positive or negative. I'll also do another much worse KBC much sooner than I would otherwise have.

    Categories:
    Metaculus Itself

    Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

    Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

    Current points depend on your prediction, the community's prediction, and the result. Your total earned points are averaged over the lifetime of the question, so predict early to get as many points as possible! See the FAQ.