Question

Will AI be able to read a novel and reliably answer questions about it before 2030?

70 comments70

Total Forecasters409

Community Prediction

99.3%

(99% - 99.9%)

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50%

community: 99.3%

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Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Jun 8, 2022

Closes:

Jan 1, 2030

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2030

Spot Scoring Time:

Jun 8, 2022

AI Demonstrations

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

Will AI be able to watch a movie and tell you accurately what is going on before 2030?

99%

Will more than two of Gary Marcus' proposed AI achievements come to pass before 2030?

97%

Will an AI be able to take arbitrary proofs from the mathematical literature and convert them into a symbolic form suitable for verification before 2030?

90%

Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Jun 8, 2022

Closes:

Jan 1, 2030

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2030

Spot Scoring Time:

Jun 8, 2022

AI Demonstrations

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

Will AI be able to watch a movie and tell you accurately what is going on before 2030?

99%

Will more than two of Gary Marcus' proposed AI achievements come to pass before 2030?

97%

Will an AI be able to take arbitrary proofs from the mathematical literature and convert them into a symbolic form suitable for verification before 2030?

90%