Question
Will an AI be able to work as a competent cook in an arbitrary kitchen before 2030?
Total Forecasters320
Community Prediction
20%
(10% - 40%)
Make a Prediction
No key factors yetAdd some that might influence this forecast.
Add key factor
Authors:
Opened:Jun 5, 2022
Closes:Jan 1, 2030
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2030
Spot Scoring Time:Jun 5, 2022
Will more than two of Gary Marcus' proposed AI achievements come to pass before 2030?
97%
Will an AI be able to take arbitrary proofs from the mathematical literature and convert them into a symbolic form suitable for verification before 2030?
90%
Will an AI be able to reliably construct bug-free code of more than 10,000 lines before 2030?
94%
Authors:
Opened:Jun 5, 2022
Closes:Jan 1, 2030
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2030
Spot Scoring Time:Jun 5, 2022
Will more than two of Gary Marcus' proposed AI achievements come to pass before 2030?
97%
Will an AI be able to take arbitrary proofs from the mathematical literature and convert them into a symbolic form suitable for verification before 2030?
90%
Will an AI be able to reliably construct bug-free code of more than 10,000 lines before 2030?
94%