Question

Will an AI be able to reliably construct bug-free code of more than 10,000 lines before 2030?

18 comments18

Total Forecasters237

Community Prediction

94%

(85% - 97%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 94%

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Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Jun 5, 2022

Closes:

Jan 1, 2030

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2030

Spot Scoring Time:

Jun 5, 2022

AI Demonstrations

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

Will more than two of Gary Marcus' proposed AI achievements come to pass before 2030?

97%

Will an AI be able to take arbitrary proofs from the mathematical literature and convert them into a symbolic form suitable for verification before 2030?

90%

Will an AI be able to work as a competent cook in an arbitrary kitchen before 2030?

20%

Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Jun 5, 2022

Closes:

Jan 1, 2030

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2030

Spot Scoring Time:

Jun 5, 2022

AI Demonstrations

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

Will more than two of Gary Marcus' proposed AI achievements come to pass before 2030?

97%

Will an AI be able to take arbitrary proofs from the mathematical literature and convert them into a symbolic form suitable for verification before 2030?

90%

Will an AI be able to work as a competent cook in an arbitrary kitchen before 2030?

20%